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ISMOR 22 Paul Stoddart Operational Analysis Air Warfare Centre

ISMOR 22 Paul Stoddart Operational Analysis Air Warfare Centre. Dstl. Measuring Progress in Air Operations. Measuring the E in EBO. Famous Person Quote. “We only fully understand something when we can measure it” Lord Kelvin. Measuring the E in EBO. Measure of Effectiveness

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ISMOR 22 Paul Stoddart Operational Analysis Air Warfare Centre

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  1. ISMOR 22 Paul Stoddart Operational Analysis Air Warfare Centre

  2. Dstl

  3. Measuring Progress in Air Operations

  4. Measuring the E in EBO

  5. Famous Person Quote “We only fully understand something when we can measure it” Lord Kelvin

  6. Measuring the E in EBO

  7. Measure of Effectiveness answers the Commander’s question “How well are we doing?”

  8. Why bother with MoEs? • After all, we win and we win quickly • Gulf 91 40 days • Bosnia 12 days • Kosovo 78 days • Gulf 03 28 days

  9. Measuring the E in EBO

  10. The Operational Cycle • OBSERVE • ORIENT • DECIDE • ACT

  11. The Operational Cycle • OBSERVE • OVER-REACT • DENY • APOLOGISE

  12. The operational loop ASSESS

  13. The operational loop DECIDE ASSESS

  14. The operational loop DECIDE ASSESS PREP

  15. The operational loop DECIDE ASSESS PREP EXECUTE

  16. The operational loop DECIDE ASSESS PREP EXECUTE

  17. The operational loop DECIDE Cognitive ASSESS PREP EXECUTE Practical

  18. The operational loop DECIDE Cognitive ASSESS PREP EXECUTE Practical

  19. The operational loop DECIDE Cognitive Slow ASSESS PREP Fast EXECUTE Practical

  20. Inside our own OODA loop Inside our own OODA loop DECIDE Cognitive Slow ASSESS PREP Fast EXECUTE Practical

  21. Misplaced focus “Airmen have become driven by process not strategy”

  22. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective

  23. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1

  24. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Tactical Objective 1.1

  25. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Tactical Objective 1.1 Tactical Task 1.1.1

  26. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective Operational Objective 1 Tactical Objective 1.1 Tactical Task 1.1.1 Action 1.1.1.1

  27. Strategy to Task Strategic Objective Measure of Effect Operational Objective 1 Measure of Effect Tactical Objective 1.1 Measure of Effect Tactical Task 1.1.1 Measure of Effect 1 Measure of Effect 2 Action 1.1.1.1 Measure of Effect

  28. Air Campaign - breakdown • Operational Objectives x • Tactical Objectives y • Tactical Tasks z • Targets/actions several per TT • Total analysis task Huge

  29. Scoring method Score for any level = sum of scores for the next level down

  30. System level modelling Element 1 Element 2 Element 3 Element 4 Element 5 Element 6 Element 7 Element 8

  31. System level modelling Element 1 Weight Element 2 Weight Element 3 Weight Element 4 Weight Element 5 Element 6 Weight Weight Element 7 Element 8

  32. System level modelling Element 1 Weight Element 2 Weight Summing Element 3 Weight IADS Effectiveness Element 4 Weight Summing Summing Element 5 Element 6 Weight Weight Element 7 Element 8

  33. Measuring the E in EBO

  34. Know your enemy Study ORBAT and ORSYS

  35. Outcome Spectrum

  36. Potential solutions • Historical Analysis of operations and campaigns from an EB perspective • Build database of Historical Analysis findings

  37. HA Database • What effects were sought? • What actions were taken? • What MoEs were used? • What effects actually resulted? • What effects should have been sought? • What actions should have been taken? • What MoEs should have been used?

  38. Education, education, education • Educate airmen in EB-perspective Air Power history • Educate airmen to have same understanding of air power actions, effects and MoEs as they do of platforms and systems

  39. “Culinary” EB • We have the books on nutrition: i.e. the doctrine • We have the place setting: i.e. the presentation of results • We do not have the cook book: i.e. the recipes, the ‘how to do it’

  40. Balance of Knowledge Action Effect ORBAT ORSYS Doctrine EB examples Weapons EB MoEs

  41. Scoring method Element result x weighting = score Aggregation of sub-level scores = result for ‘parent’ element at next higher level

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