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Energy Continued. Kulcinsky’s Solution China’s Trend. Prof. Kulcinski’s View. Growth will continue Fossil Fuels will run out Recoverables won’t cover shortfall Bring on the Nukes. Renewables. What is the technological development/cost story? Turn to National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
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Energy Continued Kulcinsky’s Solution China’s Trend
Prof. Kulcinski’s View • Growth will continue • Fossil Fuels will run out • Recoverables won’t cover shortfall • Bring on the Nukes
Renewables • What is the technological development/cost story? • Turn to National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Renewables The Energy Analysis Office (EAO) integrates and supports the energy analysis functions located in many of the Laboratory's research programs and technology centers. With offices in Washington, D.C., and Golden, Colorado, the Energy Analysis Office promotes understanding and collaboration through all of its analysis activities http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/ • How much could Renewables be expected to supply?
Renewable Energy Cost Trends Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001 4030 20 10 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 PV Wind COE cents/kWh 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 70 60 50 40 30 20 100 1512 9 6 30 10 8 6 4 20 Solar thermal Biomass Geothermal COE cents/kWh 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) 1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002 Generally Costs are Declining, but future declines are limited
Renewable Electricity Technology Cost TrendsChart Notes, Page 1 Background • The Cost Curves are expressed in constant, 2000 year dollars and based on a uniform set of financial assumptions consistent with Generating Company Ownership (balance-sheet financing). • Actual project costs can vary substantially – not only over time, but from project to project – based on variables such as siting and permitting costs, land costs, transmission access, labor costs, and financing terms. • The Cost Curves are not based on specific project data, but are composite representations derived from a variety of sources outlined below. Historic costs from 1980 to 1995 generally reflect costs that were published in various DOE Renewable Energy Program plans such as five-year program plans, annual budgets, and other program publications. The Future Cost Curves generally reflect how the DOE Renewable Energy Programs expect the costs of renewable energy to decrease through lowered technology costs and improved performances, resulting from R&D efforts and other factors. Projections of cost to 2020 for biomass, geothermal, and photovoltaic energy technologies are based on the DOE/EPRI Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations published in 1997. Wind and solar thermal costs represent more recent DOE Renewable Energy Program projections. The Cost Curves generally assume the availability of high-quality resources. This is an important point because systems using lower quality resources are being built, in some cases with costs as much as double those shown. The Cost Curves do not include the effects of tax credits or production tax incentives.
Renewable Electricity Technology Cost TrendsChart Notes, Page 2 General Observations • The renewable technology cost trends typically show a steep decline from 1980 to the present. Projections show this decline to continue, but at a slower absolute pace as the technologies mature. • Historic cost of energy trends reflected in this chart are in broad agreement with the trends published in “Winner, Loser, or Innocent Victim? Has Renewable Energy Performed as Expected?“ Renewable Energy Policy Project, Report No. 7, April 1999. Technology Specific Notes Wind technology cost projections represent wind power systems in locations with Class 6 resources. Low wind-speed turbine technology is under development, which will make available large amounts of usable wind resources that are closer to transmission. Lower costs will result from design and technology improvements across the spectrum from foundations and towers, to turbine blades, hubs, generators, and electronics. Biomass cost projections are based on gasification technology. Lower costs will result from technology improvements indicated by current pilot plant operations and evaluation, including improvements in feedstock handling, gas processing/cleanup, and overall plant design optimization. Geothermal cost projections are for Flash technology. Cost reductions will result from more efficient and productive resource exploration and characterization as well as from continued improvements in heat exchangers, fluid-handling technologies, turbines, and generators. Solar thermal cost projections are for Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Technologies and are based on a detailed due-diligence study completed in 2002 at the request of DOE. Cost reductions will result from improved reflectors and lower-cost heliostat designs, improved solar thermal receivers, heat exchangers and fluid handling technologies, and turbines and generators, as well as from volume manufacturing. Photovoltaic cost projections are based on increasing penetration of thin-film technology into the building sector. Likely technology improvements include higher efficiencies, increased reliability (which can reduce module prices), improved manufacturing processes, and lower balance of system costs through technology improvements and volume sales.
Renewables • Expected impact based on Kulcinski
NOTE THAT SOLAR DOESN”T APPEAR HERE AND HYDRO HAS LONG TERM ISSUES
Renwables • Current Global Demand: 71 Billion BOE/ Year • All of Kulcinski’s Alternatives might reach: 75 renewables + 5 to 10 in solar BOE/Year in the distant future • But with population and consumption growth this will soon be swamped • Demand may reach 150 BOE/Year in 30 years or so • Is this a closet argument for Nukes??? SURE SOUNDS LIKE IT!!!
INCREASED DEMAND FOR OIL • Recent Global economic expansion is driving the biggest increase in oil demand for sixteen years. Source: International Energy Agency • In Global Forecast, China Looms Large as Energy User and Maker of Green Power By CLIFFORD KRAUSSNYTimes, Published: November 9, 2010 Chinese energy demand would soar 75 percent by 2035, accounting for more than a third of the growth in global consumption… While China used only half as much energy as the United States in 2000, it actually surpassed the United States in 2009 as the world’s largest energy user.
TRENDS. US AND CHINA • In 2005 the US demand for energy was growing at 3.5% in the second quarter of this year, the largest gain since 1999. • The rapidly expanding Chinese economy has led to an energy demand which is up a staggering 20% over 2004.
CHINARECENT ENERGY FACTS • China accounts for at least 40% of the growth in global oil demand. • Chinese energy consumption will grow 75% in the next thirty years.
REASONS FOR CHINESE ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH • A huge population now supporting a consumer-like capitalist economic expansion. • The inefficiency of energy use in China, where 50% more energy per unit of output is needed than even in India. • The large concentration in China in four very energy intensive areas, (steel, aluminium, cement and chemicals).
CHINESE ENERGY SUPPLY ASPIRATIONS • To avoid US oil dominance in Iraq, China has signed a hydrocarbon deal with Russia for a new hydrocarbon pipeline to China.
CHINESE ENERGY SUPPLY ASPIRATIONS • China is seeking new supplies in the Caspian, in Kazakhstan, in Indonesia and in Latin America – Venezuala • China also is building a pipeline through Burma to avoid the Malaccan Straits and potential security problems
The last frontiers • Russia’s Race to the ends of the earth
Out to Sea in Brazil Note the great variation in estimated recoverable oil, in perspective North Slope Alaska oil came in at less then 1/3 of initial high estimates "The volume of recoverable oil belonging to the nation could vary from 3.7 billion to 15 billion barrels, with the most likely estimate being 7.9 billion barrels," the national petroleum agency (ANP) said in a statement
