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Recent methodological changes in the GAINS model

Recent methodological changes in the GAINS model. M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, F. Wagner. Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Prague, May 2-4, 2007. Recent methodological changes. Update to the City-delta methodology

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Recent methodological changes in the GAINS model

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  1. Recent methodological changes in the GAINS model M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, F. Wagner Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment ModellingPrague, May 2-4, 2007

  2. Recent methodological changes • Update to the City-delta methodology • RAINS cost curve-based optimization replaced by GAINS measured-based optimization • 5-years meteorological conditions • EC4MACS work plan

  3. Changes to the City-delta methodology

  4. Changes since December 2006 • New population and city-domain data (“compact” city shapes including ~70% of population) • Target metric: population-weighted PM2.5 concentration for health impact assessment • Refined results from the three urban models • Revised functional relationship • Multi-year meteorology • Modified assumptions on urban emissions

  5. “Compact urban shape” for which the urban increment is computed – Prague

  6. Compact urban shapes for which the urban increments are computed Paris London Lisbon Krakow Milan Berlin

  7. Urban increments computed by the three models for the 5*5 kmcenter grid cell and population-weighted

  8. Urban increments computed by Chimere, CAMx, RCG, compared with the City-delta regression

  9. Hypothesis of the City-delta functional relationship Δc … concentration increment computed with the 3 models α. β … regression coefficients D … city diameter U … wind speed Δq … change in emission fluxes d … number of winter days with low wind speed

  10. Urban per-capita emissions by SNAP sector

  11. Emission densities (red) and computed urban increments (blue)

  12. Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5 AT BE Bulgaria FI France

  13. Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5 Italy Netherlands NO Poland PT

  14. Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5 Germany GR HU

  15. Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5 United Kingdom

  16. Sectoral contributions to background concentrations of primary PM2.5 components from urban sources AT BE Bulgaria FI France

  17. Sectoral contributions to background concentrations of primary PM2.5 components from urban sources United Kingdom

  18. Summary • Substantial revisions of methodology and input data • Health impact assessment based on population-weighted increments – conservative assumption? • Largest uncertainties associated with quality of urban emission estimates. Large discrepancies cannot be readily explained • More plausible on emissions assumptions improve estimates • Validation hampered by lack of quality-controlled monitoring data • Sensitivity analysis explored implications on optimization results

  19. Mathematical formulation of the GAINS optimization

  20. Comparison of cost curvesExamples for Germany and Greece

  21. Multi-year meteorology

  22. Multi-year meteorology • Atmospheric dispersion based on meteorological conditions of 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003 • Sensitivity analysis with 2003

  23. Loss in statistical life expectancy computed with different meteorological conditions (for 2000)

  24. Estimates of mortality from ozone for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions

  25. Estimates of unprotected forest area for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions

  26. Estimates of ecosystem area with excess nitrogen deposition for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions

  27. Summary • For EU-27, PM and ozone impacts from 5-yrs meteorology very similar to 1997. Acidification ~10% higher, eutrophication ~5% higher • But different trends in different regions across Europe • Implications on meaures • 2003 produces higher health impacts for PM and ozone

  28. EC4MACSEuropean Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate StrategiesOverview of the 5 years work plan

  29. Global/hemispheric boundary conditions European policy drivers Cost-effectiveness Impacts Agriculture CAPRI GEM-E3 Transport TREMOVE Energy POLES PRIMES GAINS BENEFITS Atmosphere TM5 EMEP Ecosystems CCE-IMPACTS FASOM The EC4MACS model system

  30. General work plan • 2007: • Methodological improvements • 2008: • Data collection • Feedbacks on methodological improvements • 2009 • Interim assessment • Methodology workshop • 2010 • Uncertainty assessment • Bilateral consultations on input data • 2011 • Final assessment

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