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SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil

Directorate of Surveys. SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil. Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos Head of National Accounts Co-ordination roberto.olinto@ibge.gov.br October, 2007. Doing statistics and national accounts in Brazil. Population 186,777,562 Area 8,514,876 Km 2 27 states

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SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil

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  1. Directorate of Surveys SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil Roberto Luís Olinto RamosHead of National Accounts Co-ordinationroberto.olinto@ibge.gov.brOctober, 2007

  2. Doing statistics and national accounts in Brazil Population 186,777,562 Area 8,514,876 Km2 27 states 5,564 municipalities IBGE 27 unities (each state) 532 agencies

  3. The Brazilian National Statistical System Coordination (IBGE) Statistics of National scope (IBGE) Statistics of Regional scope Administrative Registers (State Statistics Agencies (Ministries / Secretariats / OREs) Central Bank Articulated database (Regional/Sectorial/National)

  4. Institutional organization Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Directorate of Surveys SNA - Latin-American organization Statistical offices – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia Bolívia Peru,Cuba, Mexico Central Banks – Uruguay, Paraguay,Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Republica Dominicana, Nicaragua .....

  5. Directorate of Surveys Organogram Directorate of Surveys Population Census Committee Coordination of Economic Statistics and Classifications Technical Management of Population Census Management of Business Register Management of Dissemination Technical Management of Agricultural Census Management of Planning and Budget Coordination of Agriculture Surveys Coordination of Services and Trade Surveys Coordination of National Accounts Coordination of Household Surveys Coordination of Prices Indexes Coordination of Mining and Manufacturing Surveys Coordination of Methods and Quality Coordination of Population and Social Indicators

  6. National Accounts in Brazil Some history

  7. Getúlio Vargas Foundation / IBGE Four accounts Current prices and constant prices with a fixed year 1947 - 1989 “benchmark” each five years (0 and 5) with the Agriculture and Industry Census Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

  8. December 1997 SNA based on SNA (1993) SUT – IEA Current prices and previous year 1990 - 2003 SUT – 80 products and 43 activities IEA – Institutional Sectors Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

  9. 1990 • Crash in the IBGE Budget • Last Census 1985 • No annual economic statistics => no benchmark • 1995 • Redefinition of economic statistics

  10. New model (since 1995) Basis of the new system Business Register - CEMPRE National Classification of Economic Activities Annual Surveys Monthly Surveys Economic Statistics

  11. Statistical Production System Social and demographics Economics Demographics Census Population Count Business Register Agricultural Census Sampling Surveys Households Enterprises or Establishment Annual: PNAD Monthly: PME Special: POF, ECINF Annual: PIA, PAC, PAS, PAIC, PAM, PPM,PEVS Monthly: SNIPC, PIM, PMC Special: PINTEC Administrative Registers: Civil Register, MUNIC, MAS, PNSB Social Indicators System National Accounts System

  12. DATA BASE FOR THE SNA

  13. Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries - Enterprise ( PIA - Empresa) 40,369 enterprises Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries - Product (PIA - Produto) Survey of Construction Industry (PAIC) 11,500 enterprises Survey of Commerce (PAC) 50,737 enterprises Survey of Services (PAS) 67,470 enterprises Economic Statistics (annual surveys)

  14. 2000 Population Census: 54 million of households PNAD 2006: 140 thousand of households, annual Urban informality -ECINF 2004: 54 thousand of households Expenditure -POF 2002-2003: 60 thousand of households Employment - PME: 42 thousand of households, monthly Household Surveys

  15. Census of Agriculture Annual Surveys Municipal Agricultural Production Temporary and Permanent Crops (PAM) Municipal Livestock Production Survey (PPM) Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS) Short-term Surveys Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA- monthly) Animal slaughter, milk production, leather, eggs Survey of Stocks Agriculture Statistics

  16. National System of Consumer Prices Indexes (11 areas) National System of Cost Survey and Indices of Construction – SINAPI Producer’s Price Indices Prices Statistics (monthly)

  17. External Sources • FISCAL DECLARATION – Ministry of Economy • Bussiness registers • Central Bank • Government • National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL • National Agency of Oil- ANP • External Trade - SECEX • .......

  18. SNA – reference 2000 Released in March 2007

  19. The reference 2000 SNA series incorporates in its compilation the following actions: • New classification of products and activities, integrated with CNAE 1.0 and ISIC Rev. 3. • Enlargement of the number of activities and products in the SUT • IEA updated with de DIPJ's data. • Availability of the annual surveys accomplished by the IBGE. • Introduction of the 2002 Expenditure Household Survey as a family consumption reference. • Introduction of data from the Agricultural Census of 1995/6.

  20. Jobs disaggregation for production function, what enables the estimate considering the characteristics of productive units. • Methodology calculation and development of the consumption of fixed capital by the Government and Non Profit institutions. • Distribution of the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly intermediary consumption by activity, enabling the elimination of the fictitious sector Financial Dummy. • Update of the methodology for estimating volume indices. Mostly for public administrations and financial intermediation that, in the previous series, were extrapolated by the demographic growth and by the economy average, respectively. • Disaggregation the Non-profit institutions from Household Institutional Sector in the final consumption and in the IEA.

  21. => 2000 – 2005 reviewed with all new data sources and methodological improvements=>1996- 1999 backcasting=>1990 – 1994 maintained

  22. Brazilian System of National Accounts QUARTERLY – 70 days after the end of a quarter ANNUAL – provisional version (T-1) - semi-definitive (??) - definitive (T-2) REGIONAL – definitive (T-2) MUNICIPALITIES – GDP only (T-2) SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) Health (project well defined) Culture (dream) R & D (dream)

  23. SNA SUTworking level 293 products 149 activities publication level 110 products 55 activities IOT each five years IEA Non-financial corporations Financial corporations General Government Households Non-profit institutions serving households Rest of the world

  24. IEA Current Accounts I. Production II. Distribution and use of income accounts II.1 Primary distribution of income II.1.1Generation of income II.1.2Allocation of Primary Income II.2 Secondary distribution of income II. 3 Redistribitution of income in kind II.4 Use of Income Account II.4.1Use of Disposable Income II. 4.2 Use of adjustable disposable income Accumulation Accounts III.1 Capital Account III.2 Financial Account

  25. QNA • New series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts were released in March 2007, following the reformulation of the Annual System. • QNA data are disseminated in: • current prices, • chain-linked volume indices (1995=100) and • rates of change. • QNA presents data of GDP by 12 economic activities and by component of final expenditures (final consumption expenditure of households, final consumption expenditure of government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, exports and imports of good and services).

  26. QNA • Data are released for the following activities: • Agriculture, forestry and fishing • Industry: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction • Services: Commerce, Transportation, Information Services, Rents, Financial Institutions, Public Administration and Other Services Quarterly series are adjusted to annual data with a Denton type method. The data for GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services and expenditure components, except changes in inventories, are seasonally adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method is used for seasonal adjustment.

  27. REGIONAL For 27 states the Production Account MUNICIPALITES GDP in current values for the 5564 municipalities SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) + Ministry of Tourism Health (project well defined) + Ministry of Health Culture (dream) R & D (dream)

  28. DISSEMINATION – preannounced schedule • March of year T: GDP, the demand components and the value added of the previous year with base in quarterly data for 12 economic activities in current values and volume indices, annual variation. • In the second semester, the definitive version of T-2 is published with a complete (110 products and 55 activities) SUT and an IEA. A preliminary version of T-1 with a small SUT (12 activities) was also published. • QNA data are published 70 days after the end of each quarter. In the QNA a SUT is estimated for each quarter, however only the added value of 12 economic activities is published. chained volume indices, seasonally adjust volume indices and the current values for the GDP, the components of the final demand and the value added of 12 economic activities and an integrated economic account for the country, including the financial account. • Regional data for T-2 are published in December each year

  29. Publications : methodology and tables with a CD Internet: all data is available for download On-line bookstore Data Access • NEXT STEPS • Financial Account until December 2007. • Balance Sheets • 2012, with reference to 2010, a new revision will be presented. (ISICRev. 4, the new Expenditure Household Survey 2007, the Agricultural Census of 2007…..)

  30. GDP 1995-2005

  31. GDP 2000-2005 (2)

  32. Participação das atividades no valor adicionado - 2000

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