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The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference. An Introduction to Quantitative Research Methods. About me…. Taught PhD level statistics for ten years I hated math? Yep. I teach judicial politics, rule of law, limited government. Projects I. Project II: How violence turns into peace.
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The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference An Introduction to Quantitative Research Methods
About me… • Taught PhD level statistics for ten years • I hated math? • Yep. • I teach judicial politics, rule of law, limited government
Here is the deal • You must always come to class, prepared by the reading. • Your grade is made up of a bunch of little assignments and quizzes. • You will be quizzed for clicker questions from the book every class.
The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference An Introduction to Quantitative Research Methods
Logic of Scientific Inquiry • Inter-subjective Standards • Mathematics • Logic • Subjective Standards • Religion • Normative philosophy
What is the job of a social scientist? • To try to use whatever tools we have at our disposal to prove ourselves wrong. • Tools: • Logic • Empirical observation • Try to disprove our theory as much as possible • Unfortunately, we cannot prove anything • Always estimate the level of uncertainty in any claim
Approaches to Political Science • Interpretavism – if we describe the phenomenon, what does it mean • Behavioralism – the underlying roots of our attitudes and behaviors • Neo-institutionalism – the relationships among attitudes and behaviors depend on rules • Rational Choice • Assume preferences • Deduce outcomes
The Research Question:Why does ‘y’ vary? • Why do some people vote for Democrats and others for Republicans? • Why do some ethnic conflicts get resolved and other end in holocausts? • Why do some democracies remain stable and others fall apart? • Why are some economies successful and others are not? • Why do some civil conflicts result in revolution and others do not? • What causes some people to support the civil liberties of political enemies? • What causes some people to trust one another and others not to trust? • What causes some people to participate in their government? • What causes some people to bring litigation against their government?
Measurement • Inter-subjective Measures • Inches • Degrees Fahrenheit • Dollars • Continuous v. Discrete
Concepts that are difficult to measure intersubjectively • Democracy • Self-Esteem • Ideology
Face Validity: Political Tolerance If your worst political enemy (i.e. Nazi’s, KKK) came to your town, would you support their right to march downtown? Not support at all Not really support Somewhat support Strongly support 4 1 2 3
High Variance Mean
Low Variance Mean
Variance: Political Tolerance 40 35 30 Lowest 25 Low Number of People 20 Medium 15 High 10 Highest 5 0 Political Tolerance
Correlation is not causality • Fire trucks fire damage • Storks babies
What causes people to be politically tolerant? 40 35 30 Lowest 25 Low 20 Medium 15 High 10 Highest 5 0 Political Tolerance
Statistical Relationships 40 3 3 3 2 35 2 3 3 1 3 2 30 1 3 Education 3 1 25 1 3 3 3 1 Lowest Low Medium High Highest 3 3 20 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 1 15 4 3 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 10 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 2 1 3 2 3 4 3 5 5 4 5 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 4 5 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Political Tolerance
Statistical Relationships 6 Slope 5 4 Political Tolerance Mean 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Education
Probability: Best Guess • What is the probable value of tolerance, given condition of education? • This is what the slope tells us. 6 Slope 5 4 Political Tolerance Mean 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Education
The story telling of statistics • http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty.html
