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Clean Energy Revolution: IRENA view HLG SE4ALL Vienna, 19 November 2011. What is a „Clean Energy Revolution“ ? Physics trump politics. Power, transportation, heating & cooling markets – power alone is not sufficient
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Clean Energy Revolution:IRENA view HLG SE4ALL Vienna, 19 November 2011
What is a „Clean Energy Revolution“ ?Physics trump politics • Power, transportation, heating & cooling markets – power alone is not sufficient • Doubling intensity improvements: 40% improvement of global average energy intensity 2010-2030 – 2.5% decoupling per year (40/30) • Average OECD about 1% in last decade - higher in emerging economies, notably China • Is lower economic growth consistent with higher decoupling rate? • Renewables 100% conversion efficiency vs 40% for coal/nuclear (accounting) • Often financing challenge and high transaction cost. Business case issues (landlord-tenant problem) • Doubling renewables share: approximately 30% renewables in 2030 (30/30) Global average • 13% in 2008 based on IEA statistics (19% based on final energy methodology REN21) • Includes about 7% traditional biomass • Business-as-usual (all policies in place): 14.3% in 2030 (IEA WEO 2010) • Policies under consideration: 17.2% in 2030 (IEA WEO 2010) – conservative view ? • Gap: 13-16% – 5-fold increase of modern renewables growth
Renewables account for half of power generation capacity additions worldwideDoubling in five years, driven by policy and innovation 2010 39 GW wind 30 GW hydro 17 GW solar PV 0.5 GW solar CSP 5 GW biomass 0.1 GW geothermal Source: IRENA analysis
Cost falling rapidly: wind energy auctions in BrazilSimilar positive trend for other renewables Auction 2009 Delivery 2012 Auction 2010 Delivery 2013
Barriers for 30/30 – policy and country specific • Insufficient attention for transport, stationary and feedstock applications • Incremental investment need in the order of USD 500 bln per year • Higher upfront investment cost • Rapidly falling cost • Derisking needed/real options analysis • Policy uncertainty/policy framework design and enforcement deters private sector action • Economic and technical feasibility is not yet clear to many decision makers and consumers • Cheap fossil fuels – internalize externalities (shale gas, oil sands, deepwater etc) • Fossil fuel and electricity subsidies in parts of the world • Too much focus on CO2 policies as a driver • Long life span existing capital stock – early phase out ? • Tedious and expensive planning procedures • Insufficient project proposal development capacity
Solutions – sector and country specific • Promote energy efficiency and renewables policies as complement for international CO2 policies • Register of country EE & RE targets – gap analysis - MRV • Roadmap transport, stationary applications – who are the key actors ? • Better information on renewables possibilities & latest economics • Assessment/inventory of policy instrument efficiency and effectiveness • Engage „long view, low risk“ capital (Pension funds, Souvereign Wealth Funds etc) • Engage utilities, municipalities, financing institutions, equipment suppliers • Streamline planning procedures, facilitate grid access etc. • Build capacity • SMEs: Global Energy Enterpreneurship Program (E+Co, IRENA, partners) • Large enterprises: promote ISO 50 001 (UNIDO, partners) • Students and vocational training • Country specific roadmaps/action plans for implementation – examples • eg IRENA renewables readiness analysis Senegal, Mozambique, UNFCCC studies
