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World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-Century Some Alternative Scenarios

World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-Century Some Alternative Scenarios. Text extracted from The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004. http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg. Apocalypse Now?. Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

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World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-Century Some Alternative Scenarios

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  1. World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-CenturySome Alternative Scenarios Text extracted from The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg

  2. Apocalypse Now? • Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse • (War, Famine, Pestilence, Death) • What will the future be? • Will the progress of the last 30 years continue? • Or are we on the brink of catastrophe? http://www.globalgallery.com/prod_images/hd-5065.jpg

  3. The 6 “P”s • Major factors: • Population • Prosperity • Productivity • Pollution • Interplay of these will determine: • Price of food • Humanity’s hope to influence the future: • Policy Jeffrey Sachs, Director of UN Millennium Development Project http://www.who.int/multimedia/wha55/jeffrey_sachs/sachs0003.jpg

  4. Two Views of the Future • Establishment view • FAO • World Bank • International Food Price Institute • U.S. Department of Agriculture • Antiestablishment View • David Pimentel, Cornell University • World Watch Institute Per Pinstrup-Anderson,International Food Price Research Institute http://www.innovations-report.de/bilder_neu/4726_perpinan.jpg

  5. Establishment View • World Agriculture production continues to grow • World population growing more slowly • Income/person continues to grow • Thus no catastrophic changes • Confidence in technology of the future • Policies need to support progress • Future generations will be more prosperous http://vikkianderson.com/Tarot/img/Cup10.gif

  6. Antiestablishment View • Possibility of environmental catastrophe • Erosion • Land degradation • Water shortage for irrigation • Rising sea levels from global warming • Continued slow yield growth • Pessimistic about technology • Sweeping policy changes needed • Radical economic and political restructuring • Future generations will suffer • We are “eating the seed” • Need radical reduction in consumption http://vikkianderson.com/Tarot/MajorArcana.html

  7. Establishment View Scenario50 Years From Now • Population 60% higher • Average income will double • Calories/capita will increase by 15% • More meat • Total food demand will increase by 108% • Total food supply will increase by 110% • Ag land increases 13% • Yields increase 86% • Undernutrition will decline • Incomes higher, prices lower Family meal, Brazil http://www.fmpsd.ab.ca/schools/df/Brazil/keatingfood.htm

  8. If Assumptions Change • If lower population growth: • 74% increase in food • 72% price decline! • If higher population growth or lower yield growth: • Demand rises faster than supply • Prices rise substantially • But incomes rise more than prices • Modest increase in calories/person German Pastries http://www.liebenau.net/szraaba/dorffaschzkz.htm

  9. Antiestablishment View Scenario50 Years From Now • Same increase in population (60%) • Less increase in income (28%) • Increase in per capita food demand of 4% • Total food demand increases 70% • Total food supply will decline 6% • 15% decrease in ag land • Small increase in yields/hectare • Price of food rises 110% • Undernutrition increases substantially Orphanage, Nicaragua http://www.chrf.org/popup/images/nic1.jpg

  10. If Assumptions Change • If population grows more rapidly and income is stagnant • Population increases 120% • Income growth is 0 • Food prices increase 181% • Calories/capita 2,256 • Lower than Africa today • Widespread undernutrition • If yields grow a little more strongly • Catastrophe averted • Slight decline in calories/person http://membres.lycos.fr/speedyz/billets/images/malnutrition.jpg

  11. Policy Agreement • Reduce population growth rate • Promote economic prosperity, health, and education • Invest in agricultural productivity • Research, extension, credit, markets • Protect soil and water resources • Assign property rights • Gives resource owners a stake in environmental protection • Encourage economic growth among the poorest • Macroeconomic policies, competitive markets, human capital Farmer, Zambia http://www.fao.org/News/2001/img/zambia.jpg

  12. The unfinished task • “It is for us, the living, to be dedicated to the unfinished task” • Abraham Lincoln • Gettysburg Address http://www.rokkorfiles.com/photos/EO-Lincoln-Statue.jpg

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