UKL Replacement Scenario Consideration

1. UKL Replacement Scenario Consideration 22nd November 2006

2. Possible Scenario - AMR • Action to consider scenarios – varied market penetration of AMR • Example scenario • Assume all NDM monthly read meters have AMR • Each daily read is sent to the GT • No other process changes – e.g. continue to balance on NDM allocations, reconciliation as-is

3. Practical implications • Currently approx. 1.6 million reads per annum for monthly read NDM • Potential change could result in 55 million reads per annum • 4.8million reconciliations per month (compared to c200,000 now) • Each read • Converted to volume • Used for NDM Reconciliation (low value) • A potential USRV or query • Stored • AMR scenario would clearly impose significant additional costs, but we have not estimated this speculative scenario

4. Outcome • Considered to be an unlikely scenario – no business driver or apparent benefit • Previous regime changes had overriding purpose: • RGMA – metering competition • RGTA – market signals • RbD – efficiency with domestic competition • Other scenarios could include: • Half-hourly reads – CA model. How might this affect transporters? An increased order of magnitude • Change that removes the need to store and manipulate data as at present? Potential decrease

5. Conclusions • Consensus that the world will look different in 10 years, but.. • No scenarios identified that would warrant amended PCR submission • Future dialogue may surface specific requirements • Desirable to have a mechanism to meet requirements