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WP000 KICK-OFF MEETING May 10-11, 2010

WP000 KICK-OFF MEETING May 10-11, 2010. Deliverables D0.1 : Project presentation (M 0) D0.2 : First year report to commission (M 14) D0.3 : Second year report to commission (M 26) D0.4 : Final report to commission (M 36) D0.5 : Summary for policy makers (M 36). WP000 – Project Coordination.

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WP000 KICK-OFF MEETING May 10-11, 2010

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  1. WP000KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010

  2. Deliverables D0.1 : Project presentation (M 0) D0.2 : First year report to commission (M 14) D0.3 : Second year report to commission (M 26) D0.4 : Final report to commission (M 36) D0.5 : Summary for policy makers (M 36) WP000 – Project Coordination

  3. WP100KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010oral presentation

  4. WP200KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010

  5. Deliverables List

  6. Milestones

  7. WP200 Objectives Main Objectives • To assimilate Data and products for products delivery • To interact with other existing systems (MACC, MyOcean, Geoland2) • To offer coherency with existing and on-going GMES standards (INSPIRE, OGC) Key Drivers • The portal has to be Ergonomic, Open, Perennial, Evolutive, adapted to users’ need and further development. • It has to take into account existing portals (CarbonTracker, Carboscope, …) How • Conception has to be modular (processing, viewing modules) • It includes tools for easily implementing new functions such as analysing, viewing, comparing, validating, processing functions : SDK, API. • It includes list of baseline elementary functions for data viewing and analysing • 2 successives versions will be implemented : • V1 after one year including core system implementation (SDK, Viewer, Data ingestion) • V2 implementing also processing

  8. CARBONES Baseline Functions

  9. CARBONES in GMES

  10. CARBONES Development Plan • The first version of the portal shall be available at T0+1 year. The portal development strategy shall take into account the full v1/v2 cycle: v1 re-use for the v2. • Rapid prototyping techniques, based on existing as far as possible, shall be proposed to have easy and quick updates following feed-back from users. Several sessions with users to be organised ? • The portal shall be build with the contributions from all the partners (text, figures)  easing of the updates from remote partners. • Products and Data assimilation : Interaction with MyOcean, Geoland, MACC.

  11. Next Steps and preliminary schedule • CERC to analyse existing portal solutions in comparison (CARBOSCOPE, CARBONTRACKER,…) • CERC to analyse engineering solutions (ESRI, ENVI, IDL, GOOGLEMAP, ARCGIS,…) • Internal Meeting with CERC, AEA within 1 month in order to fix the technology for the framework • Interaction with users and experts (LSCE), to better understand how to transfer existing post-processing • Within 1,5 month, first DRAFT specifications of the V1 including the CCDAS interface, the viewing, the API, the SDK and related documentation • Within 8 months, following users need feedback, specification of the V2, including the final set of services, post-processing and other,…

  12. WP300KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010

  13. WP300: Data preparation The aim of this work package is to provide three independent classes of data that will be used in the CARBONES system and advice on methodologies to use these data: (a) anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, land cover type and meteorological data as model forcing (b) Satellite and in-situ data for assimilation into the system using the Core Services Products (c) independent validation data (d) Definition of a future downstream carbon service

  14. Deliverables

  15. Milestones Annual review 1: CARBONES input data description V0 Annual review 2: CARBONES input data description V1

  16. Next steps Negotiation of sites/selecetion of sites schedule for exchange of data arrage visits between LSCE and groups contributing data

  17. WP400KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010

  18. WP description (LSCE)

  19. WP400: System development  Consolidate and further improve an existing Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) • Task 410: Consolidate the existing components • Task 420:Improve the different components of the CCDAS • Task 430:Validate the successive versions of the CCDAS using the large dataset collected in WP300 and estimate the uncertainties associated to the different products of the system  Main contributors: LSCE, PKU, CLIMMOD

  20. Task 420:Improve the different components of the CCDAS • Improve Managed Ecosystems in ORCHIDEE • Optimize specific parameters of Crop module & Forest MM • Improve tropical cropland representation (soybean, rice,..) • Add a radiative transfert scheme in ORCHIDEE • Model LAI  Radiances (to be compared with Satel. Obs.) • Improve Biomass Burning prior fluxes • Ocean fluxes :  toward a “mechanistic” model • Transport model (LMDZ) : increase resolution (1°x1°) • Preparation to assess the potential of new satellite data • Typically BIOMASS data & Atm. CO2 data (GOSAT)

  21. Timeline of « CARBONES » CCDAS development • Land: ~ 20 parameters controling soil carbon stocks and vegetation fluxes • Ocean: Scale fluxes • Fossil fuel & BBurning : imposed • Period : use IERA Meteo. Reanalysis (1989 – 2009) • VO T + 12 • Assimilated DATA : • - AVHRR fAPAR time series (Test with MODIS) • - Atmospheric data (around 80-100 sites) • - FluxNet site : NEE / LE - Validation Data - Soil Carbon data - Ocean pCO2 data, optimized ocean flux model - Biomass burning data - Independant Atmospheric CO2 data

  22. Timeline of « CARBONES » CCDAS development • V1 • V2 • Assimilated DATA : • - Soil carbon stocks data for Initial conditions • - • ORCHIDEE improvements • Observation operator for satellite data • Managed ecosystems • Increase number of Parameters (up to 100) • Ocean Component • Statistical model T+20 • - land: ~200 - 300 parameters • - ocean: Simplified Mechanistic model (based on PISCES) • Several sensitivity tests T+30

  23. WP400: Deliverables • D410.1: Description document of the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS), V0 (M8) & V1 (M28). • D420.1: CCDAS system evolution report, V0 (M18) & V1 (M36) • D430.1: System validation: report on the comparison between system products and independent data; (M12) and then tied to system evolution. • D430.2: Report on error estimations: - Parameter errors on base configuration (M12) - Update errors for significant system updates (tied to Sys Ev.) - Errors on output fields (M12 & then tied to Sys Ev.)

  24. WP500Kick-Off MeetingMay 10-11, 2010

  25. Objectives The objective of this task is to develop the CARBONES information package and the CARBONES portal giving access interface and information to the Climate Users at the appropriate level. Based on the CCDAS system developed and validated in WP400, the generation of 30 year reanalyses will be performed at the different steps of the project, and verification tests will be implemented. A tailored, user-friendly interface will be developed, allowing climate modellers, other science communities, local or regional communities and the general public to understand and easily visualize the living carbon cycle over the past 20-30 years. The users of the CARBONES system will use the system via a web site in which spatial data will be displayed on a Googlemaps display or similar. Finally, all the necessary material will be prepared for the dissemination of the CARBONES product and services to the Climate modellers during the project for their use and evaluation of the CARBONES information package. This task will also prepare the dissemination of CARBONES product and services to other identified communities of users, during and beyond the project. WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  26. Objectives The objective of this task is to develop the CARBONES information package and the CARBONES portal giving access interface and information to the Climate Users at the appropriate level. Based on the CCDAS system developed and validated in WP400, the generation of 30 year reanalyses will be performed at the different steps of the project, and verification tests will be implemented. A tailored, user-friendly interface will be developed, allowing climate modellers, other science communities, local or regional communities and the general public to understand and easily visualize the living carbon cycle over the past 20-30 years. The users of the CARBONES system will use the system via a web site in which spatial data will be displayed on a Googlemaps display or similar. Finally, all the necessary material will be prepared for the dissemination of the CARBONES product and services to the Climate modellers during the project for their use and evaluation of the CARBONES information package. This task will also prepare the dissemination of CARBONES product and services to other identified communities of users, during and beyond the project. WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  27. Description of work Task 510: dataset generation (NOV, LSCE, METO,MPI-BCG, ETH, DLO, USTUTT, PKU, ABDN, CLIMMOD) Inputs: pre-existing assimilation system and first System & Products design specification (T0 + 6 months), CARBONES system V0 (T0 + 10 months), updated System & Products design specification (T0 + 20 months), CARBONES system V1 (T0 + 30 months) Based on the pre-existing assimilation system available at the beginning of the project, and on the System and product design first iteration from WP200, generation of a first (non scientific) template of the CARBONES system output dataset, at T0 + 6 months Development of verification tests of the dataset numerical consistency Generation of the CARBONES V0 dataset at T0 + 12 months Generation of the CARBONES V1 dataset at T0 + 30 months WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  28. Description of work Task 520: CARBONES portal development and implementation (CERC, NOV, TAS, LSCE, METO) This task covers the development of a tailored, user-friendly interface, allowing climate modellers, other science communities, local or regional communities and the general public to understand and easily visualize the living carbon cycle over the past years. Inputs : Users Requirement Analysis, first System & Products design specification, updated System & Products design specification (T0 + 20 months), → Development of a test plan (V0 at T0 + 12 months and V1 at T0 + 24 months). → Completion of the of the web portal graphical user interface (V0 at T0 + 18 months and V1 at T0 + 30 months). → Completion of the web portal testing with delivery of a test report (Simplified version V0 at T0 + 12 months and V1 at T0 + 30 months). WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  29. Description of work Task 530 (NOV) : preparation of the necessary material for the dissemination of the CARBONES product and services (NOV) It will aim at preparing all the necessary material for the dissemination of the CARBONES products and services to the Climate modellers during the project for their use and evaluation of the CARBONES information package. It also prepares the dissemination of CARBONES products and services to other identified communities of users, during and beyond the project. This task will then interact with the WP100 and the WP700, which will define in detail the user needs in terms of dissemination material. This will include: CARBONES products and services presentation documents adapted to different levels of dissemination (RE, RR, PU) (version V0 at T0+12 and updated version V1 at T0+30) Preparation, in coordination with the WP100 and the WP700, of Users workshops, (T0+18 and T0+32), Preparation of a CARBONES demonstration portfolio based on analyses and results of WP600, for final delivery. The preparation of an executive summary for policy makers. WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  30. Deliverables D510.1 : CARBONES dataset V0 (M 12) D510.2 : CARBONES dataset V1 (M 30) D520.1 : CARBONES portal simplified version for minimal dataset access : V0 (M 12) D520.2 : CARBONES portal V1 (M 30) D530.1 : CARBONES dissemination material V0 (M 18) D530.2 : CARBONES dissemination material V1 (M 30) WP500 – Dataset production and visualisation

  31. WP600KICK-OFF MEETINGMay 10-11, 2010

  32. WP600: Added-value demonstration  demonstrate the relevance of the CARBONES 30-yr re-analysis of the carbon cycle at global and at regional scales • Task 610: attribution and case analysis (LSCE ) • Task 620: benchmarking of GMES Core Service products (LSCE) • Task 630: Demonstration of effective use by climate modellers (METO) • Task 640: Improvement in climate prediction available from the constraint on the carbon-cycle/climate feedback (LSCE)  Main contributors: LSCE, METO

  33. Task 610: attribution and case analysis • Study the regional carbon cycle for key regions • N. America, Europe, N. Asia, Tropics • N. Atlantic, Southern Ocean • Attribution of the flux variability to specific processes(NPP, ecosystem, respiration, biomass burning) • Hot spot analysis • Region that play a major role or that are most uncertain • Link to extreme events • ENSO events, volcanic eruptions, like the 1991 Pinatubo one, droughts and heat waves, like the 2003 anomaly in Europe

  34. Task 620: Benchmarking of GMES Core Service products • What is the benefit of combining observationsof Slow and Fast changes of C pools ? • Compare CARBONES products to • Geoland2 : LAI, Fluxes, biomass, Carbon storage • MACC : gridded fluxes

  35. Task 630: Demonstration of effective use by climate modellers • Evaluation of Climate model simulations (AR5 ones)against typical metrics • Identify the weaknesses / strength of the models • depending on the regions • As a function of the spatial scale considered  Identify missing processes • Define which region controls : • Seasonal cycle, Interannual Variations, Long term mean

  36. Define Metrics of the Carbon Cycle • Quantify model performances using “score” • Quantitative model evaluation..

  37. Task 640: Improvement in climate prediction available from the constraint on the carbon-cycle/climate feedback • Perform calculation of futur C fluxes 2050 usingclimate scenarios from IPCC and ORCHIDEE • Use ORCHIDEE with different sets of parameters(prior and optimized parameters) •  Impact on the fluxes and their uncertainty •  Contribution to the conflicting debate on the potential climate feedback on the carbon fluxes!

  38. WP600: Deliverables • D610.1: Report on the information brought by CARBONES about the carbon cycle. M 24 • D620.1: Report on the benchmarking of the GMES Core Services. M 30 • D630.1: Report on the use of CARBONES to evaluate ESMs. M 30 • D630.2: Report on the use of CARBONES to improve ESMs. M 36. • D640.1: Report on the impact of CARBONES on climate prediction. M 36.

  39. WP700Market AnalysisDr Iarla Kilbane-DaweDirector of Innovation, AEARachel YardleyCARBONES Project Manager, AEA

  40. Current client list Sky News, Guardian Media, EEA and in discussion with carbon traders. Phase 1 – NRT UK aggregate Data calculated at 20 min – 7 day intervals; Based on UK gas and electricity consumption; Entirely automated using <XML> data feeds; Annual integrated figures accurate to 3% of UNFCCC data. Validated for period 2006-2009 Phase 2 – NRT UK regional / local Include activity data from road, rail and aircraft in NRT (20 min); Include energy data at local spatial scale; Phase 3 – NRT EU27 National aggregates & US State aggregates Looking for partners to develop this. Phase 1 supported by ESA market development funding. Climate Change Index – commercialisation of CO2e data

  41. Typical product or service development process

  42. WP700 market intelligence

  43. Market analysis – M6, 18 , 30 Potential customers & market segments Size of the market (e.g. WCRP modellers, UNFCCC, Media) Competitors – or is this relevant, or is it a science review? Only relevant for non-scientific customers Identify blockages for market penetration Routes to entry Challenges We don’t yet know what the final products will be Time schedule – inputs to the Month 6 report will be User requirements report (M5) and Services/Product definition (M6) Collaborate closely with Noveltis, Met Office and TASF D720.1 Market Intelligence Reports

  44. Purpose Initially CUAG, later WCRP and other communities Explore new markets Develop relationships between users and service providers Assess needs and expectations Assess whether they are willing to pay for the services Month 6 & circa 18, 30 First workshop to be combined with CUAG meeting Schedule subsequent workshops with other meetings D720.2 User and service provider workshops & surveys

  45. The services must be financially sustainable after the initial development AEA will provide a template business plan Use information from user surveys to identify potential revenues. Service providers provide costs data. Plans will help identify additional investment required after the end of CARBONES to continue to evolve the products on a commercial or non-commercial basis. Identify any marketing requirements. DRM required on the website? What is the meaning of financial sustainability for a scientific product? If we find in M12 that the products are not “financially sustainable” what does that mean? D720.3 Business Development Plans

  46. Delivered by TASF Month 30 Assess requirements for future work D710.1 Future Space Missions

  47. Considering the project creates scientific data services which WP700 product is most important: Market Intelligence reports, Business development plans, or User needs assessment? AEA can revise the WP700 objectives based on what you consider to be the most important needs. What is the most important outcome for you, the users of WP700?

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