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What are you AIMing for?. Paul Marriage. 1 st March 2007. Cazenove Capital Management Limited 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Telephone +44 (0) 20 7155 5600 www.cazenovecapital.com.
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What are you AIMing for? Paul Marriage 1st March 2007 Cazenove Capital Management Limited 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Telephone +44 (0) 20 7155 5600 www.cazenovecapital.com Registered Office 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Registered in England No 3017060 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Cazenove Capital Management Limited provides independent advice
What happened to AIM in 2006 • AIM Index barely positive • Worst performing equity index in Europe in 2006 • Similar in 2005 • Led by speculative oils and online gaming • AIM 50 (excludes Sportingbet and Neteller) +8% vs small cap +23%, FTSE 250 +28%
African diamond British gem Leave AIM out of it ? • Why bother with the risk of investing in a high risk low return market when the FTSE 250 and small cap are flying • You may struggle to find African diamonds on AIM but there are plenty of British gems • A perfect stock pickers universe – inefficient, under-researched and illiquid
Our AIM winners • 35.8% return in 2006 • 50%+ of the fund in AIM • No online gaming/no natural resources. Prefer legal enterprises that don’t require a geology doctorate • A few names – Worthington Nicholls, Walker Greenbank, Redhall, Cape, Tenon Source: Cazenove Capital, total capital return 2006
What do we look for in AIM stock • UK business, not just UK registered • Less than 12x p/e, 3% yield • Understanding the value of equity – don’t like paper chases • Advisors – NOMAD and auditor have to be credible • A future move to the Full List possible
70 65 60 55 4 50 45 40 35 30 3 1 2 25 20 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB IX Europe – the perfect AIM investment? 5 Sources: Thomson Datastream • IPO at 22p. Forced significant reduction in valuation • Visit confirms potential. Massive operational gearing. Improving markets • Interim announced/company meeting. April 08 EBITDA upgraded by 15% • Trading update – April 08 EBITDA upgraded by 40% • Placing, to fund growth at 59p. Increased holding
AIM Outlook • Surprising if 2007 as poor as 2006 • 2007 started well, but so did 2006! • Risk of a commodity hedge fund blowing up • UK AIM IPOs are in demand • VCTs have plenty of £s to spend • LSE becoming more aware of reputational risk • Becoming a respected 1st step to FTSE 100 stardom
Disclaimer • The onshore services described are provided by Cazenove Capital Management Limited (Cazenove Capital) and its connected companies. These services are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Cazenove Capital provides portfolio management, independent advisory services, dealing, settlement, client money and safe custody. Cazenove Investment Fund Management Limited (CIFM) is the manager of collective investment schemes. CIFM is the product company and promotes only its own products and services. Off-shore services are provided by Cazenove Capital Management Jersey Limited which is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. This document is issued by Cazenove Capital. It is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to enter into any contract/agreement nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment or to provide any services referred to therein. • None of the Funds referred to herein are registered under the Securities Act 1933 of the USA, nor are they registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. • The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable, however, save to the extent required by applicable law or regulations, no guarantee, warranty or representation (express or implied) is given as to its accuracy or completeness, and Cazenove Capital or connected companies, directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information or any recommendations expressed herein which, moreover, are subject to change without notice. • Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Where reference is made to unregulated collective investment schemes, these may be operated in offshore centres that are unlikely to offer a level of investor protection equivalent to the UK. Such schemes may deal infrequently and may limit redemption. They use gearing as an investment strategy, and we may invest in other investment companies which use gearing as an investment strategy. Gearing is a strategy which can involve borrowing, and/or investing in warrants and derivatives and other similar investments. The strategy which the issuer of such securities uses or proposes to use may result in movements in the price of the securities being more volatile than the movements in the price of underlying investments. Such securities may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all if there is a sufficiently large fall. Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. Values may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount you invested. Income from investments may fluctuate. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. The levels and bases of, and relief from, taxation may change. You should obtain professional advice on taxation where appropriate before proceeding with any investment. You should be aware that investments in higher yielding bonds issued by borrowers with lower credit ratings may result in a greater risk of default and have a negative impact on income and capital value. Income payments may constitute a return of capital in whole or in part. Income may be achieved by foregoing future capital growth. Fund charges may be applied in whole or part to capital, which may result in capital erosion. You should be aware of the additional risks associated with investment in emerging and developing markets. Some of the investments we may make on your behalf could be in investment companies which use gearing as a strategy or invest in other investment companies which use gearing, such as investment trusts. The strategy which the issuer of such securities uses or proposes to use may result in movements in the price of the securities being more volatile than the movements in the price of underlying investments. Such investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all if there is a sufficiently large fall. • This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. • The source of the data is Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.