GVPT409F – February 9

1. GVPT409F – February 9 Foreign Policy, Conflict Processes in a Globalized Era

2. Definitions of Foreign Policy • That portion of the public policy of a state that is directed toward another state in the system, a non-state actor, or the entire system as a unit • Strategy that attempts to resolve the conflicting priorities of states as they confront their domestic needs, the nature of the international system, and the nature of inputs from other actors in the system • The goals that the nation’s officials seek to attain abroad, the values that give rise to those objectives, and the means or instruments used to pursue them

3. Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Inputs Domestic International • Foreign Policy Process Decision-Making • Foreign Policy Outputs

4. Domestic Sources Psychological/Leader-ship Societal Governmental International Sources International System – Polarity Institutions – IOs, NGOs Interactions FOREIGN POLICY INPUTS

5. Myth • Diverse societies are culturally dynamic, facilitating individual and collective identity, and fostering creativity, imagination, and invention.

6. Reality • Diverse societies are culturally dynamic, facilitating individual and collective identity, and fostering creativity, imagination, and invention. • But 1 in every 7 people is a member of an ethnic minority suffering some form of discrimination (political, economic, social or cultural).

7. Global Ethnic Militancy Countries with at least one militant, ethnically based organization

8. Myth • The international community has played an increasingly important role in the settlement of armed conflicts.

9. Global Trends in Active Conflict, 1946-2007 Number of Conflicts

10. Reality • The international community has played an increasingly important role in the settlement of armed conflicts. • But of the 39 conflicts that became active in the last 10 years, 31 were conflict recurrences – instances of resurgent, armed violence in societies where conflict had been largely dormant for at least a year.

11. New and Recurring Conflict, 1946-2007 Number of Conflict Onsets

12. Recently Terminated Conflicts and Prospects for Recurrence, 1946-2007 Number of Recently Terminated Conflicts

14. Myth • The international community has been successful both in increasing the pot of international development aid, and in directing it to the places where it is needed the most.

15. Reality • The international community has been successful both in increasing the pot of international development aid, and in directing it to the places where it is needed the most. • But development aid is outpaced by the economic cost of state instability, fragility, and failure by a factor of almost 4 to 1.

16. Costs of State Failure Global estimated cost of state failure: $270 billion* * Anke Hoeffler, Peace and Conflict 2010

17. Ranking States on Risk of Instability, 2008-2010

18. Highest Risk

19. High Risk

20. Moderate Risk

21. Some Risk

22. Low Risk

23. Crisis Vulnerability

24. Myths • The significant increase in the number of democracies among the states of the international system, coupled with a decrease in the number of autocracies, bodes well for a more tranquil international system – the democratic peace.

25. Reality • The significant increase in the number of democracies among the states of the international system, coupled with a decrease in the number of autocracies, bodes well for a more tranquil international system – the democratic peace. • But the transition from autocracy to democracy is the period most fraught with potential instability and conflict.

26. Trends in Democratization, 1946-2007 Number of Countries

27. Prescriptions Monitoring and early warning Intervention - crisis management and conflict resolution Post conflict reconstruction

28. Post-Conflict Processes • Sustained conflict management processes, including development aid and governance • Tribunals, truth commissions, and other track II processes • Women and the post conflict setting • Paced democratization

29. Jack Levy – Levels of Analysis • Post-cold War era – shift to newly-emerging concerns: regional conflict, ethno-national wars, religious militancy, resource scarcity, environmental degradation, preventive diplomacy, peacekeeping, humanitarian intervention. • Shift in type and intensity of conflict: shift from core to periphery, from interstate to intrastate. • Levels of analysis • Systemic • Societal • Individual Developed versus 3rd world perspective

30. Martha Crenshaw – Terrorism and Global Security • Terrorism now centerpiece of US national security strategy and world policy • Definition: Any action that is intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians or non-combatants, when purpose is to intimidate or compel government or international organization. • State terrorism? Resistance movements? • What forms of terrorism • Sources – globalization, democracy, violent political conflict, ideology/religion • Terrorism not explained just by root causes. Not spontaneous, groups confronting same conditions choose different responses

31. Group Radicalization and Terrorism – Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior Project • Why do groups with similar grievances and capacities pursue different strategies to achieve their goals? • Which groups will use terrorism? • Minorities at Risk/Organizational Behavior project (MAROB) allows for analytical comparison of “like groups” • Annual data on organizations that represent the interests of national ethnic minorities around the world

32. Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely engage in terrorism Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to engage in terrorism: Separatism Rhetoric justifying violence Foreign Support State Repression Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of engaging in terrorism

33. Michael Brown – New Global Dangers • End of Cold War and hopes for more peaceful world • Number of armed conflicts has held steady at about 25 per year – but civilians now targets • Realists – nothing has changed. Globalists – great change • Threats: • Old: conflict, WMD, rise and fall of great powers, US/China, India • New: nuclear balance, weapons trade, failed states, regions and intrastate conflict, transnational media, criminal orgs, transnational terrorism, CBRN • Out of blue: cyber attacks, genetic engineering – add to this social networks (Wikileaks) From national security to human security – economic, food, health, environment, political, cultural Lessons: act early, think ahead, plan for the long haul, avoid simple conceptual schemes and simple policy responses, recognize the limitations of military actions, recognize need for multilateral initiatives

34. Transnational Criminal Enterprises and Conflict • Transnational criminal enterprises contributors to and beneficiaries of conflict and instability. Symptoms state weakness, ethnic tensions, regional rivalries • Organized crime sometimes supply weapons that fuel ethnic conflict and civil war • In some areas – parts of Africa, Central Asia, Balkans, Afghanistan, Burma, Colombia – traditional distinctions between politically motivated organizations and those seeking financial gain are blurred. Insurgency, fractionalism, warlordism, terrorism, crime, and corruptions. • Collapse of old regimes brought collapse of social controls. Russia. State in transition is particularly vulnerable. • Criminal states – Russia, Mexico, N. Korea, Serbia, tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay (black spot) • Symbiotic relationship between conflict processes and transnational criminal enterprises

35. Tri-Border Area: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay