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Backcasting “ or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients “

Backcasting “ or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients “. IA Summit 2007 Las Vegas. Sam Ladner York University. Matthew Milan Critical Mass. Session Overview. On Turbulent Environments Backcasting Background Backcasting as Information Architecture

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Backcasting “ or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients “

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  1. Backcasting“or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients“ IA Summit 2007 Las Vegas Sam Ladner York University Matthew Milan Critical Mass

  2. Session Overview • On Turbulent Environments • Backcasting Background • Backcasting as Information Architecture • Is That a Discovery Process in Your Pocket?

  3. Turbulent Environments“Take me to the river…“

  4. Turbulent Environments

  5. Strategy is Turbulent How do you navigate a turbulent environment?

  6. Every River Needs a Guide You are your client’s guide

  7. Backcasting is a Navigational Tool It helps you to create plans for changing environments

  8. There’s more then one path But you don’t always know the right path beforehand

  9. Scouting Ahead Not “how DO we get here”, but “how DID we get here”

  10. Backcasting Background“A recipe for people who hate to predict“

  11. Casting Back • 1950s ► ProtoBackcasting ► AT&T • 1970s ► MultiScenario Planning ► Shell • 1990s ► Big Backcasting ► Robinson & SDRI • 2000s ► Agile Backcasting?

  12. Problems with Big Backcasting • Complex Undertaking • Resource Intensive • Time Consuming • Inaccessible to Non-Experts

  13. Why do backcasting? Good strategy lets you see the entire landscape

  14. Better Backcasting? • Simplify the Process • Lightweight • Quick and Agile • Accessible & Engaging ► Participatory Modeling ► Sorting & Grouping ► 3 to 6 hours ► Facilitation Framework

  15. Backcasting as Information Architecture“The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments“

  16. Where’s the IA? • Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling • Information Architecture as a thinking framework • Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time

  17. The Elements of Backcasting • Set timeline • Baseline current state • Define future states • Identify indicators • Assess risks and create action plan

  18. The Backcasting Map tfuture tnow • Set the timeframe • Backcasting in five easy steps

  19. The Backcasting Map • Baseline the current state

  20. The Backcasting Map Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe • Define Possible Future States

  21. The Backcasting Map • Work Backwards and Identify Indicators Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe

  22. The Backcasting Map • Assess Risks, Opportunities and Actions Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe

  23. A Discovery Process in Your Pocket“Stop Predicting and Start Helping“

  24. What do you need? • Visual Language – The “Map” • Facilitation Skills • The Ability to Translate Concepts Into Indicators

  25. What makes a good guide? • Don’t tell you what to do • Keep you safe • Intentionally simplify complex situations • Leave the choices to the journeyer

  26. Case Study: OmniBank • Fortune 500 Financial Services Firm • Multi-Stage Redesign • Multiple Stakeholders • No Clear Strategy • Client Desire to Learn Adaptability

  27. Mapping OmniBank Strategy Focus on the map, not political agendas

  28. Capture Everything …including insights about your clients

  29. Elicit Problems and Solutions Ask hard questions and you’ll get solutions

  30. Deep Dive on Indicators Robust indicators of success mean robust success

  31. Identify Immediate Actions 30, 60 and 90-day action plans move projects forward

  32. Take Me To The River

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