All Politics Is Local: The Evolving Role Of Sub-National Climate Action In The US

1. All Politics Is Local: The Evolving Role Of Sub-National Climate Action In The US Michael Lazarus, Senior Scientist, SEI-US, Seattle/UW

2. “The warming is global, but the legislating, in the U.S., is all local” - New York Times headline (Oct 23, 2003) Why are states and cities acting? • Climate imperative and awareness • Leadership vacuum / federal gridlock • Opportunity to shape federal policy • Long-standing role of states as policy innovators and laboratories • Strong co-benefits (energy price volatility, air pollution) • Economic opportunity – positioning for prosperity in a low-carbon economy • Political resonance

3. SEI-US plays an advisory and support role • State climate action plans • Facilitating stakeholder processes, and advising and analyzing action plans and policy options • California, Washington, RI, AZ, NM, MT, MN, NC, VT, SC… nearly a dozen states, several in partnership with Center for Climate Strategies • Municipal/local climate strategies • Regional climate initiatives • SEI’s ongoing challenge: connecting global equity and development perspectives to local/state action

4. US States: 30 of Top 75 Emitters

5. States Choose Carbon-Friendly Governors October 16, 2006 Climate Action is Resonating Politically O’Malley Maryland Join RGGI Schwarzenegger California State Cap Napolitano Arizona New Targets Patrick Mass. Join RGGI Richardson New Mexico New Targets Spitzer New York 100% RGGI Auction = $200 million Ritter Colorado GHG Market “our aggressive campaign against climate change will match or exceed what California and other leading states have done” – New Mexico Environment Secretary Ron Curry (ABJ Journal 12/28/06)

6. The state map is filling in • Over 15 states now have ambitious emissions goals, plans in place or underway, and a broad portfolios of actions, being widely diffused: • Renewable energy and energy efficiency standards and incentives GHG vehicle standards (now over 20 states and provinces) • CO2 standards for power plants and for long-term electricity contracts • Binding GHG emissions caps Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) • Assessment (and mitigation) GHG emissions in environmental review of projects and government rules Source: Center for Climate Strategies, www.climatestrategies.us • Many state plans indicate an overall economic benefit or limited cost, due to cost savings from efficiency improvements

7. A new urgency at state and regional levels • Growing sense that significant federal action on climate (and energy) policy is likely in 2008 or 2009 • E.g. emission cap and trade, vehicle standards • Risks of lock-in of inadequate federal policy or of pre-emption of state policy • Desire to act quickly, place markers, influence good policy, and avoid full preemption

8. Regional Climate Initiatives • Over half of US may be covered by a regional GHG cap-and-trade system in 1-2 years • Strong desire by stakeholders and policy makers to reflect regional concerns • RGGI has already influenced draft national legislation, e.g. increasing inclination to auction permits Source: Pew Center for Climate Change, www.pewclimate.org

9. Western Climate Initiative • Regional Goal set in August 2007 • 15% below 2005 levels by 2020 • “do their share” to reduce global emissions between 50% and 85% by 2050 • By August 2008, WCI will develop a design for a regional market-based multi-sector mechanism • Could be the most expansive cap-and-trade to date • Currently includes 7 states, 2 provinces, with another 9 observing • New entrants must have: • an equally stringent economy-wide GHG reduction goal • a comprehensive multi-sector climate action plan to achieve the goal • committed to adopt GHG tailpipe standards for passenger vehicles

10. Getting to a “safe climate” may require more than many state/regional targets foresee… Source: SEI/Ecotrust - Salmon nation low-carbon bioregion assessment Rough depiction adapted from Luers, Mastrandrea, et al 2007, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/emissionstarget.html

11. Cities and mayors are part of the chorus • Over 700 municipalities have signed US Mayors Climate Agreement • GHG emissions 7% below 1990 by 2012 • Like states, cities/mayors • are adopting detailed action plans • focus on green buildings, low-carbon electricity supply, transportation alternatives, building energy efficiency • testifying in Congress • influencing regional policy (e.g. Texas coal plants) • are, like governors, in a race to the top > 25% US population

12. Seattle Times, Oct 30, 2007, Front page news: “Seattle reports milestone in cutting emissions”

13. Do emission goals/targets make sense for cities? • Goals and inventories are based on geographical boundaries • Cites may have greatest impact and influence in urban and community design, transportation alternatives, and building energy use – long-lived infrastructure • These actions have broad rationale, long-term impacts, and emissions benefits well beyond city borders (avoided sprawl, material requirements) • Other emissions-intensive activities can dominate a city’s emission profile, such ports, through highways, cement plants, power plants that serve regional demand, but cities may have less influence • SEI is working with Seattle and others on creating better metrics and alternative targets, such as consumption-based indicators

14. Are state and local climate actions addressing the global climate and development challenge? • "Other countries like India and China, Brazil and Mexico will join us when they see all the great work that we are doing," says Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. "Also our federal government will follow us -- trust me." • Is lead-by-example enough?

15. Concluding thoughts • State/local climate action may continue to spread and deepen, even as it has created momentum for US federal action • Much depends on adequacy of federal action, extent of preemption, and continued public interest, and political resonance • Increasing engagement of climate in decisions about long-term investments, from coal plants to community design • Still… the willingness to pay to solve the climate problem, in particular beyond state/national boundaries, seems to be developing slowly • If this willingness is fundamental to addressing the global climate and development challenge, and “all politics is local”, how can the connections be made?