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Population Projection of China

This study provides an overview of the population projection of China, including the general condition, method of projection, and results. It covers various factors such as births, deaths, migration, and age structure. The data is based on the 2000 census and includes short, medium, and long-term projections.

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Population Projection of China

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  1. POPULATION PROJECTION OF CHINA Feng Nailin Department of Population & Employment Statistics National Bureau of Statistics of China

  2. Population Projection of China • General Condition of Population Projection • Method of Projection • Results of Projection

  3. Ⅰ.General Condition of Population Projection 1. Population projection of previous 30 years 2. Role of population projection⑴ One important source to draw up program of development of population and social-economics ⑵ Base of evaluation of population statistics

  4. One example: Under enumeration of youth and young adults – Comparison of sampling survey and evaluation Evaluation-female, male Survey-female, male

  5. Ⅱ. Method of Projection Cohort-component Method : Produce projection of age structure 1. Basic steps 2. Base data 3.Assumptions about births, deaths and migration 4. Time Range 5.Scenario of projection

  6. Estimation of age, death, birth and migration Urban age-sex of year T Migration pattern: R to U Rural age-sex of year T Urban pattern of death Urban pattern of birth Urban age structure Urban deaths Urban births Urban-rural age of year T+1 1. Basic steps (example: chart of projection of urban-rural population) T=T+1 T=T+1

  7. Cohort-component Method1、Birth population prediction (出生人口预测) t年分年龄别的生育率i为15…49 岁 t年分年龄别标准化的生育率 i为15…49 岁 t年的总和生育率（出生率控制参数） t年i岁年龄别育龄妇女人数 t 年出生人数 男性出生人数 女性出生人数 出生婴儿性别比

  8. Cohort-component Method2、0 year old population prediction ( 0岁人口预测) t 年0岁人口，分男女性别 t年出生婴儿留存率（0岁留存率） 生命表中0岁的平均生存人数，分男女性别 生命表中i岁的留存人数， t 年出生人数 （分男女） 按男女婴儿留存率计算

  9. Cohort-component Method3、Projection of population of all ages (各年龄人口预测) t年乡村分性别i岁年龄别人数 t年城镇生命表分性别i岁年龄别留存率 t年乡村生命表分性别i岁年龄别留存率 t年为预测城镇人数 t年为预测乡村人数

  10. 2. Base data --Based on 2000 census ⑴Urban population by age-sex, 2000 ⑵Urban survival rate by age-sex or model life table, 2001-2050 ⑶Urban age-specific fertility rate, 2001-2050 ⑷Net migration rate by urban-rural, 2001-2050 ⑸Net migration rate by province, 2001-2050 International migration may ignore in national population projection.

  11. 3.Assumptions of deaths, births and migration⑴Deaths--Survivors by sex in life table

  12. ⑵Births-- Proportion of age-specific fertility in TFR by urban-rural

  13. ⑶ Migration

  14. 4. Time range Short term:10 years less Mid-term: 10-20 years Long term:20 years above Population projection of China involves in short，medium and long term

  15. 5.Scenario of projection⑴ Life expectancy at birth Comparison of Life Expectancy at Birth of National Population with Different Scenario: 2001-2050

  16. ⑵ TFR by urban-rural TFR by Urban-Rural with Different Scenario: 2001-2050

  17. ⑶Urbanization LevelLevelⅠ-- 60% in 2030; Level Ⅱ-- 65% in 2030 Urbanization Level with Different Scenario

  18. Integrated Scenario (example)

  19. Ⅲ. Results of Projection--Based on 2000 Census • Trend of Total Population • Trend of Population Growth • Trend of Age Structure

  20. 1. Total Population ProjectionDifferent Scenario Population of Urban-Rural with Different TFR Scenario (LOW Medium High) (in 100 million)

  21. 2. Population Growth Projection(1) Births Average Annual Births and Crude Birth Rate

  22. (2) Projection on Urban-rural Population Different Scenario Population of Urban-Rural and TFR with Mid-Scenario (in 100 million)

  23. ⑵ Urban-ruralPopulation Rapid Urbanization?

  24. 2500 Urban growth 2000 Migrants Natural growth 1500 10 thousand 1000 500 0 year -500 2046-2050 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 (3) Growth of Urban Population

  25. 3. Age StructureProjection (1) Dependency Ratio Average Dependency ratio, 2001-2050 （Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

  26. 80.0 Youth 70.0 Old-age 60.0 Total Dependency Ratio（%） 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Years 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (1) Dependency Ratio Trend of Dependency Ratio, 2001-2050 人口红利

  27. (2) Working-age Population Population Aged 15-64 （Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

  28. (2) Working-age Population Lewis Point?

  29. (3) Elder Population Population Aged 65+ and 60+ （Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

  30. 1400 Total 1200 Urban Rural 1000 800 600 10 thousand 400 200 0 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2051-2050 -200 -400 Year (3) Elder Population Annual Growth of Population Aged 65+ Rapid Growth of Elder！！

  31. (4) School-age Population Population Aged 6-22 （Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization ) (in 100 million)

  32. (4) School-age Population Population of Schooling Age Specified by Nursery, Primary, Junior Middle, High Middle Schools and University Yrs0-5 and 6-11 close to 100M？

  33. 90+ -0.04 0.10 90+ -0.02 0.05 85-89 -0.14 0.25 85-89 -0.08 0.16 M F M F 80-84 -0.41 0.56 80-84 -0.25 0.38 75-79 -0.79 0.93 75-79 -0.57 0.69 70-74 -1.19 1.24 70-74 -0.98 1.04 65-69 -1.50 1.49 65-69 -1.39 1.36 60-64 -2.20 2.13 60-64 -1.71 1.58 55-59 -3.07 2.98 55-59 -1.90 1.76 50-54 -3.02 2.83 50-54 -2.59 2.41 45-49 -4.08 3.88 45-49 -3.47 3.29 40-44 -4.79 4.55 40-44 -3.34 3.08 35-39 -4.46 4.21 35-39 -4.45 4.19 30-34 30-34 -3.61 3.42 -5.18 4.90 25-29 -3.94 3.67 25-29 -4.79 4.54 20-24 -4.84 4.41 20-24 -3.87 3.69 15-19 15-19 -4.21 3.96 -3.74 3.24 10-14 10-14 -3.46 2.87 -5.16 4.74 5-9 5-9 -3.13 2.95 -3.99 3.45 0-4 0-4 -3.70 3.07 -3.01 2.85 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 (5) Population Pyramid China,2000 China, 2010 (Projection)

  34. 90+ -0.12 0.25 90+ -0.35 0.74 85-89 -0.31 0.52 85-89 -1.08 1.71 M F M F 80-84 -0.87 1.16 80-84 -2.27 2.90 75-79 -1.78 2.08 75-79 -2.93 3.28 70-74 -2.14 2.24 70-74 -2.82 2.95 65-69 -3.28 3.32 65-69 -3.38 3.34 60-64 -4.09 4.03 60-64 -4.35 4.12 55-59 -3.94 3.82 55-59 -3.46 3.07 50-54 -3.25 3.14 50-54 -3.25 2.75 45-49 -3.59 3.39 45-49 -2.97 2.84 40-44 -4.44 4.09 40-44 -2.87 2.74 35-39 -3.45 3.01 35-39 -3.02 2.88 30-34 -3.21 2.67 30-34 -2.86 2.73 25-29 -2.91 2.75 25-29 -2.61 2.48 20-24 -2.79 2.65 20-24 -2.49 2.37 15-19 -2.93 2.79 15-19 -2.44 2.32 10-14 -2.77 2.63 10-14 -2.43 2.31 5-9 -2.52 2.39 5-9 -2.34 2.23 0-4 0-4 -2.41 2.28 -2.20 2.10 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 China, 2030 (Projection) China, 2050 (Projection)

  35. 90+ -0.05 0.11 90+ -0.04 0.08 85-89 -0.17 0.30 -0.12 0.20 M F M F 80-84 -0.47 0.67 80-84 -0.33 0.44 75-79 -0.92 1.08 -0.64 0.76 70-74 -1.42 1.41 70-74 -0.94 1.05 65-69 -1.82 1.75 -1.15 1.21 60-64 -2.59 2.49 60-64 -1.77 1.74 55-59 -3.44 3.37 -2.67 2.55 50-54 -3.07 2.94 50-54 -2.97 2.71 45-49 -3.91 3.92 -4.27 3.83 40-44 -4.35 4.41 40-44 -5.28 4.70 35-39 -3.54 3.54 -5.47 4.96 30-34 -2.48 2.38 30-34 -4.86 4.58 25-29 -2.74 2.38 -5.26 5.10 20-24 -4.92 4.45 20-24 -4.74 4.36 15-19 -4.51 3.92 -2.90 2.48 10-14 -4.16 3.40 10-14 -2.69 2.29 5-9 -3.49 3.28 -2.73 2.59 0-4 -3.16 2.99 0-4 -2.84 2.70 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 Urban of China, 2010 (Projection) Rural of China, 2010 (Projection)

  36. 90+ -0.42 0.99 90+ -0.31 0.64 85-89 -1.40 2.44 85-89 -0.95 1.41 M F M F 80-84 80-84 -2.87 4.01 -2.02 2.43 75-79 -3.16 3.83 75-79 -2.83 3.04 70-74 70-74 -3.01 3.06 -2.40 2.67 65-69 65-69 -2.52 2.52 -3.74 3.68 60-64 -4.53 4.16 60-64 -3.93 4.01 55-59 -3.62 3.11 55-59 -3.09 2.97 50-54 -3.46 2.85 50-54 -2.76 2.50 45-49 -3.24 3.02 45-49 -2.35 2.42 40-44 -3.18 2.97 40-44 -2.15 2.20 35-39 -3.28 3.08 35-39 -2.42 2.44 30-34 -3.02 2.85 30-34 -2.49 2.43 25-29 -2.66 2.54 25-29 -2.47 2.35 20-24 -2.43 2.31 20-24 -2.64 2.51 15-19 -2.23 2.11 15-19 -2.95 2.84 10-14 -2.17 2.06 10-14 -3.03 2.89 5-9 -2.10 2.00 5-9 -2.91 2.77 0-4 -1.99 1.90 0-4 -2.69 2.56 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 Rural of China, 2050 (Projection) Urban of China, 2050 (Projection)

  37. Thanks!

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