Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

1. Regional ScaleEcological Risk Assessment

2. The Conceptual Model ENSC 202 Regional ERA

3. Traditional vs Regional ERA

4. Ranks and Filters in RRERA Model Ranking components of the conceptual model Exposure and Impact “Filters” Weighting the likelihood of impact Weighting the likelihood of exposure

5. Lake Champlain Relative Ecological Risk Assessment Model Watershed (WSi) for i watersheds Cumulative Stressors (CSSik) Habitats & Resources Assessment Endpoints & Indicators Sources Stressors Effects Filter Impacts Filter AEP1 HBi1 SRi1 SSiJ1 AEP2 HBi2 SRi2 SSi2 Effect Link Matrix SRjk x SSjk Impact Link Matrix SSkm x HBkm AEP3 HBi3 SRi3 SSiJ3 … AEP4 HBi4 SRi4 SRiJ4 X X Effect Importance Matrix SRjk x SSjk Impact Importance Matrix SSkm x HBkm … … … … AEPm HBim SRij SRijK What specific characteristics could be measured? What resources would be needed? Source score (SRij): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of source j in watershed i? Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (ELjk) and Effect Importance (ELjk) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor to stressor k? (None, Small, Moderate, Large) Stressor score: computed as SSijk= SRij * ELjk* ELjk Cumulative stressor score computed as CSSik= Σj(SRij* Efjk * Efjk) Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (ILkm) and Impact Importance (IIkm) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an impact on habitat m? (Lg, Mod, Sm, None). Individual habitat risk is IHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm*IFkm)*HBim] Habitat score (HBim): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of habitat m in watershed i?

6. Comparison of Frameworks Valdez Case Study Sub-watershed Source Stressor Receptor Habitat Endpoint Indicator RS = S * H * SRw RS = H * E * REw Our Revised Framework Sub-watershed (Wi, for i sub-watersheds) EFjk IFkm Source SRij for j sources Stressor SSijk = SRij * EFjk for k stressors Habitat HBim for m habitats Endpoint Narrative only Indicator Narrative only CWRi = Σm(IHRim) Cumulative sub-watershed risk across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds CHRm= Σi(IHRim) Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds for each of the m habitats CSSik= Σj(SRij * EFjk) Cumulative stressor score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources IHRim= [Σk(CSSik*IFkm)*HBim] IHRim habitat risk, by sub-watershed and habitat, for all k stressors Things we can derive Note: EFjk = ELij * EIij Note: IFkm = ILkm * IIkm See Sqaulicum Creek Case Study

7. Lake Segments - Watersheds • Missiquoi Bay Missisquoi • St. Albans Bay Stevens/Rugg • Northeast Arm Northeast Arm • Mallets Bay Lamoille • Main Lake (VT) Winooski • Burlington Bay Burlington Bay • Shelburne Bay LaPlatte • Otter Creek Otter Creek • South Lake A Lake George • South Lake B Poultney/Mettawee • Port Henry Port Henry • Main Lake (NY) Boquet/AuSable • Cumberland Bay Saranac • Isle La Motte Isle La Motte • Direct Watersheds Other Direct

8. Sources • Agriculture • Urban • WWTPs • Dams • Roads • Fisheries • Marinas • Forested Areas • Industrial • Parks • External

9. Stressor list (composite)This list needs wassimplified to a consistent set of agreed classes Phosphorous (all types)·   Soluble Reactive P (SRP) ·   Particulate P Pathogens·   Fish pathogens: VHS ·   Human pathogens: E. coli Toxic Substances·   pesticides ·   herbicides ·   heavy metals ·   hydrocarbons ·   dioxin & like compounds ·   phthalates Recreation (distributed)Land use·   Terrestrial ·   Aquatic ·   Riparian Vehicle use·   Terrestrial ·   Aquatic Invasive Species·   Zebra mussel ·   Purple loosetrife ·   Water Chestnut ·   Eurasian water milfoil ·   Rusty crayfish ·   White perch Barriers to Movement of Aquatic Organisms·   Dams ·   Roads ·   Culverts Fragmentation of Landscape

10. HabitatsThis list was simplified to a consistent set of agreed classes • Open water • Lake Champlain • <6’ • >6’ • Lakes/Ponds other than Lake Champlain • Rivers  and Streams • Developed (all types) • Open space • Low intensity • Medium intensity • High intensity • Barren land (rock/sand/clay)…aka mines pits and such • Forest (all types) • Deciduous • Coniferous • Mixed • Herbaceous (all types) • Shrub • Grassland • Agriculture (all types) • Pasture/hay • Cultivated crops • Wetlands (all types) • Woody wetlands • Emergent herbaceous wetlands

11. Key Input Matrices – A Glossary • Watershed x Source Matrix • What types of sources exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent] • Effects Links Matrix • Does a link exist between a Source and Stressor? [Existence] • Effects Importance Matrix • Is the Source a particularly potent Stressor? [Intensity] • Effects Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance • Impact Links Matrix • Does a link exist between a Stressor and a Habitat? [Existence] • Impacts Importance Matrix • Is the Stressor a particularly potent Impact? [Intensity] • Impacts Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance • Watersheds x Habitats Matrix • What types of habitats exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent] BLUE matrices are inputs ORANGE matrices are calculated

12. Values of the Matrices • Source and Habitat Matrices • None (0), Some (2), Common (4), Abundant (6) • Link Matrices (Effects and Impacts) • No link (0), Possible link (0.5), Clear link (1) • Importance Matrices (Effects and Impacts) • None (0), Weak (0.5), Moderate (1), Strong (2) • Should we add an apocalyptic 4?

13. Focus: Sources Team(Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based) • What is the area/number/size of each source type in each sub-watershed? • What is the rationale of scoring the “quantity” of each source (i.e., the source area, number, or size) • What specific stressors are most important from each source? (Links directly to Stressors Team) • Consider resources in Troy et al. (2007) • Products • Watersheds x Sources matrix (The Source Matrix) • Sources x Stressors matrix (The Effects Link/Importance)

14. Focus: Stressor Teams(Note: Not explicitly sub-watershed based) • Why is your stressor important? Why is it a focus of concern? How does it act? • For your stressor, what sources are most important? (Links directly to Sources Team but not watershed by watershed) • What are the most pragmatic classes to use for your Stressor? • What specific habitat types are most likely to be affected by each stressor class? (Links directly to Habitat Team but not watershed by watershed) • Consider information in Opportunities of Action. • Products • Sources > Stressors matrix (The Effects Filter for your stressor) • Stressors > Habitats matrix (The Impacts Filter for your stressor)

15. Focus: Habitat Team(Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based) • What is the area/number/size of each habitat type in each sub-watershed? • Are there pragmatic classes of habitats that make sense to group together? • What are the key threats (Stressors, ignoring Sources) to your primary Habitat types/classes? (Links directly to Stressor Teams) • What specific indicators would be most useful to monitor the general habitats? (Note suggestions from Watzin et al. 2005) • Products • Watersheds > Habitats (The Habitats Matrix) • Suggestions for key Assessment Endpoints for each Habitat

16. The Sources Matrix(Sources Team) Sources (for j different sources) Watershed (for I different watersheds BLUE matrices are inputs ORANGE matrices are calculated

17. The Effects Filter Matrices(Sources & Stressor Teams) Effects Link Matrix Effects Importance Matrix Sources (for j different sources) Sources (for j different sources) Stressors (For k different Stressors) Stressors (For k different Stressors) X Sources (for j different sources) Effects Matrix Stressors (For k different Stressors) =

18. The Impacts Filter Matrices(Stressor and Habitat Teams) Impacts Link Matrix Impacts Importance Matrix Habitats (for m different habitats) Habitats (for m different habitats) Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors) Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors) X Habitats (for m different habitats) Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors) Impacts Matrix =

19. The Habitat/Resource Matrix(Habitats Team) Sources (for m different habitats) Watershed (for I different watersheds

20. Summary Risk Matrices Effects of all Sources of each Stressor by Watershed Impacts over all Habitats of each Stressor by Watershed Stressors (for k different stressors) Stressors (for k different stressors) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Effects of all Stressors from each Source by Watersheds Impacts of all Stressors on each Habitat by Watersheds Sources (for i different sources) Habitats (for m different Habitats) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Watersheds (For i different watersheds)

21. Reiteration of our Framework Sub-watershed (Wi, for i sub-watersheds) EFjk IFkm Source SRij for j sources Stressor SSijk = SRij * EFjk for k stressors Habitat HBim for m habitats Endpoint Narrative only Indicator Narrative only CWRi = Σm(IHRim) Cumulative sub-watershed risk across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds CHRm= Σi(IHRim) Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds for each of the m habitats CSSik= Σj(SRij * EFjk) Cumulative stressor score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources IHRim= [Σk(CSSik*IFkm)*HBim] IHRim habitat risk, by sub-watershed and habitat, for all k stressors Things we can derive Note: EFjk = ELij * EIij Note: IFkm = ILkm * IIkm Note: In considering criteria ranking (or scoring), a “6” should be relative to conditions that prevail in the Lake Champlain Basin and not the “theoretical” worst case situation. For example, the Winooski watershed might rank a “6” in urban land use even though it is far less developed than, say, downtown Detroit or Baltimore. The key question is, to what stressors is Lake Champlain most susceptible?

22. Extra Slides

25. Watershed (WSi) for i watersheds ORIGINAL Framework - Discarded Cumulative Stressors (CSSik) Habitats & Resources Assessment Endpoints & Indicators Sources Stressors AEP1 HBi1 SRi1 SSiJ1 AEP2 HBi2 SRi2 SSi2 AEP3 HBi3 SRi3 SSiJ3 Impacts Filter IFkm Effects Filter EFij … AEP4 HBi4 SRi4 SRiJ4 … … … … AEPm HBim SRij SRijK What specific characteristics could be measured? What resources would be needed? Source score (SRij): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of source j in watershed i? Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (ELjk) and Effect Importance (ELjk) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor to stressor k? (None, Small, Moderate, Large) Stressor score: computed as SSijk= SRij * ELjk* ELjk Cumulative stressor score computed as CSSik= Σj(SRij* Efjk * Efjk) Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (ILkm) and Impact Importance (IIkm) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an impact on habitat m? (Lg, Mod, Sm, None). Individual habitat risk is IHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm*IFkm)*HBim] Habitat score (HBim): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of habitat m in watershed i?

26. Comparison of Original and Revised Frameworks For Each Watershed Original Source x (Effects Filter) = Stress Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Filter) = Total Impact Total Impact x Habitat = Risk Revised Source x (Effects Link x Effects Importance) = Stress Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Link x Impact Importance) = Total Impact Total Impact x Habitat = Risk