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CANSO INVESTMENT COUNSEL LTD. PBY-5A “Canso” ”. Canso Credit Income Fund 2012 Update and Outlook. Caution regarding forward-looking statements. Lysander Funds Limited . Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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CANSO INVESTMENT COUNSEL LTD. PBY-5A “Canso”” Canso Credit Income Fund 2012 Update and Outlook
Caution regarding forward-looking statements Lysander Funds Limited Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and any applicable Canadian securities legislation. We may make forward-looking statements in this presentation, in other filings with Canadian regulators or the SEC, in reports to unitholders and in other communications. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements relating to our view of the investment markets and expectations for the performance of the Canso Credit Income Fund (“CCIF”). The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is presented for the purpose of assisting the holders of the Canso Credit Income Fund and financial analysts in understanding the CCIF’s financial position and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe”, “expect”, “foresee”, “forecast”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “goal”, “plan” and “project” and similar expressions of future or conditional verbs such as “will”, “may”, “should”, “could” or “would”. By their very nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which give rise to the possibility that our predictions, forecasts, projections, expectations or conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct and that our vision, aspiration, and strategic goals will not be achieved. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of risk factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors – many of which are beyond our control and the effects of which can be difficult to predict – include: credit, market, and liquidity risks, general business, economic and financial market conditions including the effects of the European sovereign debt crisis; the effects of changes in government fiscal, monetary and other policies; and our ability to successfully execute our strategies. We caution that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect our results. When relying on our forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to us, investors and others should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and potential events. Except as required by law, we do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by us or on our behalf.
CCIF OverviewPBY.UN Managed by Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. - John Carswell, President & CIO. $209 million closed end fund launched July 2010. Deep value credit portfolio with ability to hedge interest rate risk. Pays annual ROC of 5%.
CCIF Structure Strong portfolio yield. 9.45% Yield to maturity. 8.22% Current yield. Average credit quality BBB. Interest rate hedged. Duration of 1.2 years. Significant floating rate exposure. Excellent security selection opportunities. Significant upside on many positions. Fund characteristics as of March 31st 2012
Performance: Canso Credit Income Fund • NAV Performance Ending March 31, 2012 *Inception July 16, 2010
Flight to Treasury Safety (30 Year U.S. Treasury Yield) ?? Financial Market Distress Source: TMX Group
2011, The Year Interest Rates Would Rise! (Yield on 30 Year Canada) Euro Debt Crisis & “Risk-Off Trade” Risk Rally ?? Source: TMX Group
Lowest Yields in a Generation! (Canadian CPI and 10 Year Canada Bond Yields) 10 Year Canada CPI Current Yield Source: TMX Group
Canadian 10 Year Real Yield (10 Year Canada Yield Less CPI Since 1945) Average = 2.5% Source: TMX Group
Credit Spreads Remain Attractive (DEX Mid Corporate versus Mid Canada Yield Spread) Canadian Spreads are at Recession Levels 0.98% Source: TMX Group
Long BBB Bonds are Excellent Value! Shaw 6.75% / 2039 Rogers 6.11% / 2040 Source: TMX Group
Financial Bond Yields (2017 Maturities in Canadian Dollars) Morgan Stanley Euro Debt Crisis Royal Bank of Canada Source: TMX Group
Euro Financials are Recovering (Price of RBS 6.66% /2017) Euro Debt Crisis Source: TMX Group
CCIF Performance Long corporate spreads have narrowed. Maple financial spreads narrowed. Interest rate hedge positive.
Canadian Primary Dealer Positions Corporate Securities Held For Trading (in Billions of Canadian Dollars) Source: Bank Financial Statements, Canso
Canadian Inflation Targeting (YOY CPI Since 1991)
Corporate Real Yields Since 1946 (DEX Long Corporate Index Yield minus Canadian YoY CPI) Average = 4.4% Source: TMX Group
Prime Rate versus Inflation Canadian Prime Rate Canadian CPI
Canadian “Real” Prime Rate (Canadian Prime Rate minus YOY CPI) 1970s Stagflation Canadian Prime “Real Rate” is Exceptionally Low! Aggressive Monetary Liquidity