Vladimir Livshits Maricopa Association of Governments May, 2009

1. Technical Innovations in the Regional Planning Processes: SWOT Analysis from a Practitioner's Perspective Vladimir Livshits Maricopa Association of Governments May, 2009

2. What is SWOT? • Strengths • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Threats

3. What is the purpose of this presentation? • Take a systemic look at the innovations in terms of their interplay and overall effect on the common practice in planning processes. • Generate a discussion leading to better allocation of resources and cooperation in implementing most appealing innovations • Offer some ideas for innovations evaluation and planning

4. What is a technical innovation in transportation planning? GPS data collection • We will talk about new technical tools in transportation planning (new model, new program, new interface, new hardware, etc.) • We will not talk about new planning ideas (new facility type, new land use policy, etc.) Reliability Analysis Multiyear Master Transportation Networks Geo Databases Photo visualization Geo Analysis Activity-based Travel Forecasting Models Mobile GIS Modeling of Dynamic Traffic Phenomena 3d rendering Smart board interactive overlay Cellular data collection Uncertainty Analysis

5. Main Causality of Technical Innovations in Regional Planning Planning Needs (necessary but not sufficient) New Planning Processes Political stratum New Planning Tools Evaluation stratum Modeling stratum Technological Advancements (sufficient, but not necessary) Data stratum

6. Are emerging planning needs threats or opportunities in achieving planning goals/regional visions? • Climate Change and Environmental Protection Needs • Sustainability Needs • Needs to account for Economic Volatility and for Plan Sensitivity • Needs to Account for Uncertainty • Needs to Evaluate New Travel Modes and Transportation Technologies • Needs to Evaluate New Policies and Regulations • Needs to Reflect New Travel Behavior

7. Can Technological Advances help to address new challenges /threats in achieving planning goals? • Dramatic Increase in Computing Power: multiple processors, distributed computing, cloud computing • Dramatic Decrease in Computational and Storage Costs • New Web Technologies • New GIS technologies • New GPS technologies • New Technological Expectations • Lack of New Technological Expertise • Competitiveness on the HR market

8. What are weaknesses and strengths of proposed innovations in terms of advancing regional planning agenda? • Future Staff Requirements and Availability of Technical Expertise • Life Cycle of existing technologies, maintenance and support cost and availability • Stakeholders and general public expectations • Applicability to foreseeable tasks • Efficiency in execution of typical technical tasks

9. MPO Planning Process Multi-jurisdictional Coordination Multi-jurisdictional Coordination MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process MPO Planning Process FTA Guidelines and Requirements FHWA Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements FTA Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Federal Guidelines and Requirements Freight Planning Environmental Protection Agency Financial Planning Department of Environmental Quality Land Use Planning Environmental Planning Public-Private partnerships Land Use Planning Sustainable Development Interstate Corridor Planning Environmental Justice Multimodal Planning Socio-Economic Forecasting Multimodal Planning Statewide Planning Safety Congestion Management Process Community Participation Economic Vitality Department of Economic Security

10. Regional Planning Business Process

11. Decisions Evaluation Models Data Technical Innovations Strata in the Regional Planning Process • Core technical process strata: • Observed data for analysis and modeling • Models for predictions, explanations and descriptions • Project evaluations and programming/planning

12. Data Stratum:Innovative Planning Tools • Web-based GUI data access • Visualization: GIS, Google • Data Integration (different types of data, historic data, jurisdictional data) • Enterprise Application Integration (e.g. integration with modeling applications - automated model validation tools, with data collection applications - QA/QC, automated data upload) • Built-in data analysis tools

14. Data Collection and Management Innovation Decision Matrix • data collection • data acquisition • data analysis • data storage • data security • data retrieval • data access and dissemination • data archiving • data disposal • Arrows indicate results of example project level decisions on data management innovations

15. Decisions Evaluation Models Data Modeling Stratum: Strengths and Weaknesses • Modeling assumptions are inadequate for future planning needs but are in-line with existing planning processes • Models are not integrated with each other and other parts of the planning process

16. Innovations in Transportation Modeling = Relaxed Modeling Assumptions + Capitalization on Computing Technology Uncertainty & Sensitivity Four Step Trip Based Paradigm Activity / Tour Based Paradigm • Long Term Choices: • Residence Location • Work Location • School Location • Car Ownership TG Purpose/ User Class Prism Activity/ Person/ Household Prism Assumptions TD Assumptions Assumptions MS Assumptions • Short Term Choices: • Activity Choice • Time of Day Choice • Mode Choice • Route Choice TA Assumptions Assumptions

18. Transportation Modeling Innovation Decision Matrix • Paradigm Shift and disaggregation – Data Mining and Knowledge Management - Database Approach, ABM • Enterprise Application Integration and Automation - PMDS, Geo Database, Master Network • Data Accessibility and Visualization - Web-based GIS technologies, 3D • Arrows indicate results of example project level decisions on data management innovations

19. Decisions Evaluation Models Data Evaluation Stratum: Strengths and Weaknesses • Disconnect between evaluation, data analysis and modeling, necessity for complex manual effort • Insufficient accessibility of project data, ability to easily visualize and query project information • Robust manual procedures and established guidelines

20. Evaluation Stratum and Process Integration Innovations • New dimensions introduced by both political and technical nature of the process • Process Integration Issues with other strata • Visualization and Accessibility-web based • Outsourcing and Cooperation – vendors

22. Conclusions and Recommendations • Agency level systemic analysis is crucial for technical innovations’ introduction • Innovations should be planned and considered in the overall planning business process and not in isolation • Introduction of technical innovations affect different strata of the planning process. It should and can capitalize on the synergy of cooperative efforts between departments and agencies and efficient outsourcing to third party vendors