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Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses

Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses. Kevin Sharp Master’s Geography – University of Colorado, 2009 Bachelor’s Geography – University of Tennessee, 2007. nasa.gov. “Direct impact” hurricane damage in the U.S. (1900-2005) (adjusted for inflation to 2005 $).

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Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses

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  1. Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses Kevin SharpMaster’s Geography – University of Colorado, 2009Bachelor’s Geography – University of Tennessee, 2007 nasa.gov

  2. “Direct impact” hurricane damage in the U.S. (1900-2005) (adjusted for inflation to 2005 $) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

  3. D2005= Normalized damage in 2005 $ • Dy= damage in impact year • Iy= inflation adjustment • RWPCy= real wealth per capita adjustment • P2005/y= population adjustment Normalization by Pielke Jr. et al. (2008) Normalized damage per year (1900-2005) with 11-yr centered avg. (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

  4. ICAT Damage Estimator Demonstrationhttp://www.icatdamageestimator.com/

  5. The Influence of Landfall Variation on Tropical CycloneLosses in the US as Simulated by HAZUS • LINK TO THESIS (PDF) Master’s Research NHC

  6. Hazard Model • Load Model • Resistance Model • Damage Model • Loss Model HAZUS-MH Rita-L (Vickery et al., 2006)

  7. Research Methods Wilma • Top 10 storms by normalized damage – (1988-2009) • Storm parameters unchanged • 30-mile track shift • Hurricane eye diameter ≈ 20-40 miles • 39-mile NHC 12-hr forecast cone • Damage estimate differences Wilma-L

  8. Results 2004 Ivan Ivan-L

  9. Results 2005 Katrina

  10. Results 1992 Andrew

  11. Results 2008 Ike

  12. Results 2005 Rita

  13. Landfall location matters • Landfall location very influential in long-term record • Little skill in impact prediction Hurricane Frances Conclusions Further Steps • Intensity • Maximum • Rate of dissipation • Size • Overall • Wind field • Speed • Hurricane modification nasa.gov

  14. FEMA. (2007). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology - Hurricane Model - User Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency. • ICAT. (2009). ICAT -Damage Estimator. Retrieved June 26, 2009, from http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/faq#6q • Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900--2005. Natural Hazards Rev., 9(1), 29-42. • Vickery, P. J., Lin, J., Skerlj, P. F., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., & Huang, K. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. I: Hurricane Hazard, Terrain, and Wind Load Modeling. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 82-93. • Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., Lin, J., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., Young, M. A., & Lavelle, F. M. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. II: Damage and Loss Estimation. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 94-103. References

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