Potential Projects and Opportunities

1. Potential Projects and Opportunities Applying Complexity Sciences to Address Focus and Convergence Challenges Workshop Output 18 October 2007

2. Changes in Military Training • Implement new thinking on C2 approaches into the military training so that the next generation of officers can think about the challenges • Help to institutionalize complexity-aware thinking about C2 • May be suitable as a long term project • An example may be the current military training at Fort Leavenworth, KA

3. A Study on Learning Organizations • A ‘journalistic’ project to understand how learning gets institutionalized by an organization. • Example: Soldiers in Iraq learned that they can use silly string to detect and avoid tripwires. This has been proven to be effective. • How does this lesson get institutionalized? • What is the process?

4. Shared Situational Awareness • Take shared situational awareness from traditional military C2 and apply to complex endeavors • This application probably shares schemas and models from Complex Adaptive Systems

5. Probabilistic Information Representation • How would things be different if information were represented in probabilistic ways? • How would decisions be different? • What value arises from formulating decisions in this way? • Bayesian approaches to information use and decision making • Within current experimentation (ELICIT), add means to experiment with information confidence • Past experience suggests that priors dominate • An analytic look at existing systems • Originator/user can assign probabilities • Way of measuring trust?

6. Experimentation with Decision Making in Complex Environments • Decision ranges (a la firing ranges) • Analytic techniques, models, HITL, reality • Spectrum/environments for “playing” with concepts • Ability of humans to make complex decisions • When does our ability to make complex decision fails • What’s different about those who are good v those who are not • DRDC – Toronto: • Started a program to work in this area • Also looking at time compression factor, extent to which one can compress and learn as one works through the decision making process • Netherlands: • Models that help explore quality of decisions across domains (education, crime, etc.) • USMC: • Distributed Operations in Complex Environments • USMC WF Lab runs related experiments – would like to be able to measure relevant parameters

7. C2/FC/Governance Approach • What are key factors that help describe alternative approaches • How do they vary? • Point of view, Level of detail • How are the approaches different? • Degree of delegation, Distribution of information, Patterns of interaction • Need a framework for comparing overarching approaches – combines domains/issues in decision making • Start by picking some simple challenges problems that test a range of factors • Work some simple problems while looking at bigger picture – what are the factors that should be examined? • Project that posits a C2 approach space and a problem space and looks at mapping between the two • What leads to different regions in the approach space being less or more well suited to different regions in the problem space? • Where does the concept of using automation of current processes to deal with increasing complexity break down? • E.g., Autonomous UVs in Afghanistan • AFRICOM Case Study: New roles, new organization, different problems • GIG Netops – GIG COP (monitors the GIG, creates common picture)

8. Vision for C2 for Complex Endeavors • Approach suitable for problems encountered • Ability to recognize nature of the problem • Ability to recognize appropriate C2 approaches • Ability to realize identified approach • Theoretical concept to hang one’s hat on • NATO SAS-065: NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model • Related to NATO NEC C2 Conceptual Model • IDed levels of capability, what is needed to go from one to another • Doing case studies, thinking about experiments • Most of what’s seen so far has been of low maturity (barely deconflicted) • State of the practice is pretty low – there’s hope we can do better • Need to better define the elephant

9. Multi-agent Systems as Laboratories for Experimentation • Define experiments for which MAS could be instantiated and employed • Need a platform to enable one to examine various issues

10. Role of Information Technology to Facilitate Complex Endeavor Activity • Human nature has been around, but IT is one thing that’s new • How can information technology be used to help complex endeavors function more effectiveness/efficiently/coherently – or at all!

11. Other ideas • Common/Shared Intent in Complex Endeavors • How to measure? • How to enable? • How much and what types are needed to enable cohesive endeavor operations • Related to discussion of needing sufficient overlap in means or ends, but not necessarily both • Trust/Mistrust • What does it mean in the context of a complex endeavor • How to operationalize definitions/measure • How to enable, e.g., • Incentives to encourage appropriate trust relationships/discourage inappropriate ones • Studies of trust networks (e.g., “contagion” of trust and distrust, disrupting trust networks, etc.) • Difference between C2 (or Focus and Convergence, or Appreciating and Learning) within a given complex endeavor, and designing and building the people-process-technology SoS that will better enable effective future complex endeavors • Developing enduring principles at some level that may apply across contexts (i.e., are there approaches for “dealing with complexity” in addition to approaches for “dealing with complex situation A”