Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat?

1. Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat? Dr. Yair Sharan –ICTAF Director Sharany@post.tau.ac.il 2nd Annual Arms Control Conference: New Trends in WMD Arms Control Ma’ale Hachamisha, February 8-9, 2005 ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

2. THE TWO AXIOMS • It is very easy for terrorists groups to acquire non-conventional capabilities (especially when chemicals and biologicals are concerned). • Non conventional weapons are weapons of mass destruction. The number of casualties as a result of an attack will be huge. ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

3. Characteristics of Non-Conventional Agents in the hands of Terrorists Covert use It is possible to apply agents covertly and delay warning. Indetectability Some agents are not detectable in real time by present warning and sensing systems. Small quantities Potentially cause significant effects resulting in casualties or contamination. ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

4. Characteristics (cont.) Incubation time There is a time lag between application of biological agent and the onset of casualties. First symptoms may not appear for days or weeks. This creates difficulties for the defense system and the attack validation Persistent contamination Radioactivity as well as some of chemical and biological persistent agents can deny human access to important areas, infrastructures, and urban areas. Effects may be long-lasting: decontamination is possible in most cases although very expensive. ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

5. Characteristics (cont.) Epidemics Contagious Bio-agents (e.g. Small pox, Plague) have potential to cause epidemics.(A two sided sward??) Psychological effects Combination of collective memory and ignorance of CBW weapons effects. ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

6. General Observations • Non-conventional Terrorism threat utilized by non-state actors, has developed slowly. • Terrorist organizations have caused significant economic and psychological damages. Non-conventional weapons in the hands of terrorists have been “Weapons of MassImpact” rather then “Mass Casualties”or“Mass Distraction” • Biological NCT is the major threat. The nuclear threat has a low probability; the chemical NCT has a low impact (comparable to conventional means). • Non state actors show great willingness to harm large numbers of civilians (e.g Madrid, 9/11) ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

7. Lessons learned from recent events • 1. Bioterrorism (use of Anthrax) resulted in a small number of casualties (none in Japan, several in U.S.A.) • 2. Casualties were caused by military quality agents (and not by self-made ones). • Casualties from Bacterial agents (e.g. Anthrax) were successfully treated by antibiotics, • 4. Biological events were quickly identified by well equipped and trained health systems (U.S.A.) • 5. Terrorists are aiming at most infectious effective agents – anthrax the lord of bioterrorism • Is Smallpox the next??? ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

8. Basic Ways for Achieving Non Conventional capability by terrorists • Primitive – Use of “natural” • Contagious sources (e.g. ill people, corpses) • Technological – Self made/produced agents/weapons • Political – Covert state assistance (the problem of rouge states) ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

9. The “Technological” Alternative Terrorist Knowledge Base Weapon Effects Operation Choice & Deployment Acquisition of Key Components Manufacture Weaponization Weapon Use Storage and Transportation ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

10. Outcomes of a simulation • The main obstacles Preventing terrorists from utilizing CW as mass destruction weapons are: • Sort out a suitable agent out of huge information. • Impure agents due to the low quality of the raw materials and the improvised manufacturing equipment. • Small quantities that can be produced and transported. • Difficulty of efficient dispersion. • Manufacturing assembling, storage and transportation of large quantities of CW are difficult under covert conditions. • Self production of Chemical Agents would result in relatively low toxicity products, and thus smaller effects in a real event. ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting