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Risk Acceptability

Risk Acceptability. Safe does not necessarily mean ‘free from risk’. Most Risks have Associated Benefits. “Acceptable risk is the risk associated with the best of available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.”.

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Risk Acceptability

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  1. Risk Acceptability Safe does not necessarily mean ‘free from risk’ Session 21

  2. Most Risks have Associated Benefits Session 21

  3. “Acceptable risk is the risk associated with the best of available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.” Source: Derby, Stephen L., and Ralph L. Keeney, 1981. Session 21

  4. Factors that Determine Risk Acceptability • Personal • Political / Social • Economic Session 21

  5. Injustices • The process of determining the acceptability of risk can be influenced by those with money and vested interests. • Setting a dollar figure (in cost-benefit analyses) on a human life is considered by many to be unethical and unconscionable. • Risk management is usually an undemocratic process, as those who may be harmed are not identified or asked if the danger is acceptable to them. Session 21

  6. Risk Acceptability Assessment Methods • “No Go” Alternative • Accept the Risk • Establish a “De Minimis Risk” Level • Establish a “De Manifestis Risk” Level • Perform a Cost-Benefit Analysis • Perform Cost Effectiveness • Choose the Best Choice Among Alternatives Session 21

  7. Derby and Keeney’s 5 Steps • Define the alternatives • Specify the objectives and measures of effectiveness to indicate the degree to which they are achieved • Identify the possible consequences of each alternative • Quantify the values for the various consequences • Analyze the alternatives to select the best choice Source: Derby and Keeney, 1981 Session 21

  8. Example A COST • K • L *M 0 0 RISK Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224. Session 21

  9. Example B COST Minimum Risk • K Minimum Cost • L 0 0 RISK Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224. Session 21

  10. Example C COST *M • K • L * 0 0 RISK Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224. Session 21

  11. Example D COST Case 1 • K • L Case 2 0 0 RISK Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224. Session 21

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