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Summer 2011 A Climate Outlook Warm or Cold Wet or Dry

Summer 2011 A Climate Outlook Warm or Cold Wet or Dry. Matt Masek NWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte , NE May 25, 2011. Today’s Outline. Revisit last year (2010) What has happened this spring (2011) Summer Outlook (2011). North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011).

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Summer 2011 A Climate Outlook Warm or Cold Wet or Dry

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  1. Summer 2011A Climate OutlookWarmorColdWetorDry Matt Masek NWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte , NE May 25, 2011

  2. Today’s Outline • Revisit last year (2010) • What has happened this spring (2011) • Summer Outlook (2011)

  3. North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011) North Platte Spring (March, April, May) North Platte Summer (June, July, August)

  4. North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011) 2010 2011 MAY MAY

  5. North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)

  6. Valentine Spring/Summer 2010 (2011) Valentine Spring (March, April, May) Valentine Summer (June, July, August)

  7. ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011) 2010 2011 MAY MAY

  8. ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011)

  9. ENSO • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • 3 Phases – Based on a section of the southern Pacific Ocean (region Niño 3.4) temperature, departure from normal. • ENSO Warm (3 months +0.5°C) - El Niño • ENSO Neutral • ENSO Cool (3 months -0.5°C) - La Niña • Effects on the United States • Most prevalent in Winter Months • Hurricane Season

  10. Winter Months (Dec – Feb)

  11. ENSO 2010 • Summer 2010 Phase • Weakening El Niño • Winter 2010-11 Phase • Moderate-strong La Niña • Summer 2011 Phase • Weakening La Niña • 2010 to 2011 Opposites

  12. U.S. Drought Monitor After an El Nino Winter After an La Niña Winter

  13. So what is expected for the rest of the Spring and Summer of 2011?

  14. CPC Outlooks • CPC – Climate Prediction Center • 6 to 10 day outlook & 8 to 14 day outlooks are produced daily (Above Normal, Normal, Below Normal) • One month outlook and 3 month outlooks issued on the third Thursday of the month (Tercile Forecast) • One month outlook updated on the last day of the month (Tercile Forecast)

  15. 6 to 10 Day OutlookMay 30 – June 3

  16. 8 to 14 Day OutlookJune 1 – June 7

  17. CPC Long Range Outlooks • Tercile Forecast (What?) • 3 Categories (both Temperature & Precipitation) • Above Normal (33.3%) • Normal (33.4%) • Below Normal (33.3%) • No shading is NOT normal expected • No shading is not enough skill to predict one way or the other (Labeled EC or Equal Chance for any of the three categories to happen)

  18. Summer OutlookJune

  19. Summer OutlookJune – July – August

  20. Why? • June – Weakening La Niña, Atmosphere still acting like La Niña - more active northern storm track • JJA – ENSO becoming neutral, transition period difficult to predict, when La Niña pattern disappears

  21. ??Potential?? • Heat “bubble” across southwestern U.S. and southern plains could develop and become dominating weather pattern for western and central Nebraska • More likely over southwest Nebraska • If “heat ridge” does develop, above normal temperatures and dry will become more widespread, possible drought?

  22. ***www.weather.gov/northplatte***

  23. Summer 2011 No Clear Signs

  24. Thank YouQuestions ???

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