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NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center’s Marine Modeling Branch

NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center’s Marine Modeling Branch. Collaboration with Navy, US Army Corps of Engineers: US Navy: wave ensemble and ocean modeling (Backbone). USACE: wave modeling (possibly + surge). Co-development of wave model physics (WAVEWATCH III) through NOPP

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NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center’s Marine Modeling Branch

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  1. NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center’s Marine Modeling Branch • Collaboration with Navy, US Army Corps of Engineers: • US Navy: wave ensemble and ocean modeling (Backbone). • USACE: wave modeling (possibly + surge). • Co-development of wave model physics (WAVEWATCH III) through NOPP • Co-development of real-time ocean forecast model (HyCOM) through NOPP

  2. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System Ü Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system Ü Promote closer ties between research and operations Concept: Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids Portable and efficient on parallel computers Well suited for a broad range of applications Community model with direct path to operations Collaborators: NCEP/EMC, NCAR, AFWA, NOAA/ESRL, U. Okla.

  3. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System NCEP creates 4 specific lat/lon grids (see figure) of its North American Model (NAM) output for AFWA on an operational basis (4 times per day out to 84 hours) The NAM is the 12 km Non-hydrostatic Model version of the WRF.

  4. Land Information System (LIS) • NOAA-NASA-USAF collaboration • M. Ek (NOAA) • C. Peters-Lidard (NASA) • J. Eylander (USAF) • LIS hosts • Land surface models • Land surface data assimilation and provides • Regional or global land surface conditions for use in • Coupled NWP models • Stand-alone land surface applications

  5. NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software) Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind Waves -------------- LSM -------------- AQ -------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------------- Etc Atmospheric Model Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Coupler7 Etc. 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, AFWA or NOAA institutional commitments Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL…)

  6. The NUOPC Concept: A Cooperative Effort NUOPC NASA AIR FORCE NOAA OAR NSF NAVY R&D COMMUNITY ONR

  7. NUOPC Description • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system • NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization • NUOPC is not: • An R&D or acquisition project • A unified management system for operations or acquisition • A unification of agency missions

  8. Focused Single National EffortThrough Coordination Operational Centers • Navy & NOAA R&D NCEP AFWA FNMOC • NASA NUOPC • NSF Other Agencies • Academia • AMS

  9. NUOPC Vision (2015) • Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

  10. The NUOPC Partnership • Coordinated technology development for future systems • Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level • Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC) • Prioritization of common operational needs • Aligned transition processes • Joint ensemble system with managed diversity • Share operational computing costs • Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications • Significant acceleration in operational performance • Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

  11. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-2 FOC IOC-1 MGMT REPORTG MOA Quarterly Updates to Principals STAFFING TT PM, TEMPS Full Staff CODE CONV. INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION MAINTAIN OPERATIONS CONOPS, COMMS, IA PROTOTYPE OPS ENS OPS TEST FOC STANDARDS PARTICIPATION OUTREACH Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

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