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NCEP Update NAEDEX-21

NCEP Update NAEDEX-21. Brent Gordon NCEP Central Operations September 17, 2008. Topics. NCEP Mission and Vision NCEP – Who we are NCEP Infrastructure – How we accomplish our mission NCEP Modeling Update Model Evaluations GRIB2 Transition New Building NCEP NAEDEX Action Items.

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NCEP Update NAEDEX-21

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  1. NCEP UpdateNAEDEX-21 Brent Gordon NCEP Central Operations September 17, 2008

  2. Topics • NCEP Mission and Vision • NCEP – Who we are • NCEP Infrastructure – How we accomplish our mission • NCEP Modeling Update • Model Evaluations • GRIB2 Transition • New Building • NCEP NAEDEX Action Items

  3. NCEP Mission • Mission – NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the Nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. • Vision – The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services “From the Sun to the Sea…Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

  4. HPC Technology • Gaithersburg (primary) and Fairmont (backup) Operations (Last upgrade Jan 07) • 15.5 Tflops Linpack sustained per system • 148 Power 5+ Nodes • 2,368 processors (16 per node), 1.9 gigahertz speed) • 4,736 gigabytes of shared memory • 150 terabytes of disk space • 75 terabyte tape archive

  5. HPC TechnologyIBM Power 6 • Final Contract Option with IBM now being executed • Two Identical systems • 93.9 Peak Tflops Linpack sustained per system • 156 Power 6 Nodes • 4,992 processors (32 per node), 4.7 GHz speed) • 128 GB memory per node • 180 terabytes of disk space per system • 160 TB multi-clustered GPFS (10 GBPS backbone)

  6. NOAA R&D Infrastructure • Gaithersburg, DC (NCEP) • IBM Supercomputer System • 8.7 TFlops Linpack sustained • 1392 Power5+ processors (1328 compute processors), 2.7 Terabytes of memory, 160 Terabytes of disk space, 5.5/9.7/13.2 Petabytes of Nearline tape storage in 2007/2008/2009 • Princeton, NJ (GFDL) • SGI Supercomputer System • 5248 Itanium processors, 10.3 TB of memory, 516 TB of disk space, 6.8 PB of Nearline tape storage • Boulder, CO (GSD) • Appro Supercomputer System • 1440 Woodcrest Xeon processors, 1.5 TB of memory, 168 TB of disk space, 0.5 PB of Nearline tape storage

  7. NCEP Network

  8. NCEP Modeling Update • JCSDA • Global • Mesoscale (atmospheric) • Hurricanes • Ocean Models

  9. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

  10. NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS NASA/Earth Science Division NOAA/OAR US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL US Air Force/Director of Weather Vision: An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction Mission: …to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models. Established 2002

  11. Accomplishments • Community radiative transfer model (CRTM) (all partners) • Common assimilation infrastructure (NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO) • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system (EMC, GSFC, AFWA) • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – 300% increase in number of satellite soundings used in high latitudes (STAR, EMC) • MODIS polar winds implemented (EMC, GMAO, FNMOC) – Nov ‘05 • AIRS radiances implemented (EMC, GMAO) – May ‘05 • COSMIC implemented (EMC, AFWA) – May ‘07 • Improved physically based SST analysis (EMC) • Data denial experiments for major components of GOS (GMAO)

  12. NCEPGlobal Weather Modeling

  13. NCEP/GEFS Major Implementation Plan (FY08/09) • Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 for 20 perturbed forecasts • 4 cycles per day • Up to 180 hours • T126 from 180 hours , up to 384 hours (16 days) • Using 8th order horizontal diffusion for all leading time forecast • Extend 16 days forecast to 31 days • 00Z cycle only • T126L28 resolution • User request (for MJO prediction) • Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS • Version 3.1.0 • allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members. • Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for model errors • Increasing model spread • Improving the forecast skills

  14. NAEFS product upgrade plan (FY08/09) • NAEFS data exchange • Add approximately 15-23 new variables to current 51 pgrba for NAEFS data exchange (in discussion) • Such as vertical shear, helicity, u,v, t, RH for 100, 50hPa, LH, SWR, LWR at surface, and etc.. • Use GRIB2 format for data exchange • Approximated 45-60m time saving • New NAEFS downscaling products • For Alaska region (~6km NDFD grids) • Surface pressure, T2m, U10m and V10m • Having new variables for both CONUS and Alaska regions • Tmax, Tmin, 10m wind direction and speed • Dedicated line for NCEP and CMC NAEFS data exchange • DS-3 (sooner?) • Time saving (high expectation)

  15. NAEFS Expansion • Plans to be coordinated with THORPEX • Links with Phase-2 TIGGE archive and beyond (GIFS) • Expansion • FNMOC (join NAEFS pending on the evaluation) • Experimental data exchange started from April 2008 • Preliminary evaluation by end of 2008 (1 year evaluation period) • Operational implementation by 2010 (subject to improved performance) • ECMWF (use data only) • Start to collect ECMWF ensemble data from May 2008 • Preliminary evaluation by May of 2009 (1 year evaluation period) • Operational adding bias corrected ECMWF ensemble to NAEFS (subject to improved performance) • UK MetOffice • Decision on going operational & possibly joining NAEFS - by 2008 • KMA, CMA, JMA • Expressed interest, no detailed plans yet

  16. GFS & GSI Plans Beyond 1 year • Semi-Lagrangian • Increase resolution (vertical & horizontal) • New cloud & precip microphysics • Overhaul of turbulence and moist physics • Continue to work toward 4DVAR • Continue to add observations • May require forecast model linearizations

  17. NCEP POST • NCEP POST: a unified POST for ALL NCEP atmospheric models • Generalization of the NAM POST (aka WRF POST). • Several GFS post algorithms will be included • GFS definition of relative humidity • isentropic level output • dynamic tropopause • User requested fields added 2007: • Sigma layer temperature at .90, .85, .80, .75, .70, 3 hourly intervals • Omega on 500-700 mb layer • Satellite look-alike product (broadband channel) • Richardson number & Ellrod index • Elevated CAPE diagnostic (300-60 pressure difference) • Diagnostic surface visibility • Satellite look-alike product (narrower instrument channels) • User requested fields waiting until at least FY08: • Simulated radar reflectivity • Turbulent kinetic energy • Simulated echo tops • Model gravity wave diagnostic

  18. Mesoscale Modeling

  19. HiResWindowFixed-Domain Nested Runs4 km run Configuration • FOUR routine runs made at the same time every day • 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 06Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico • 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 18Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico • Everyone gets daily high resolution runs if & only if hurricane runs are not needed Data to be on NOAAPORT soon!

  20. HiResWindow WRF Configurations (No Parameterized Convection)

  21. Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivityhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

  22. NAM Future Plans • Current machines (dew/mist) 1Q 2009 • Minor model changes, e.g. shallow convection • Improve GSI • Retain more of large scales from GFS • Partial cycling and strong constraint • Satellite channel bias correction • Non-linear quality control • Test new sources of data • TAMDAR & Canadian AMDAR • METOP2 • Next machine (providing ~3x dew/mist) 2009-2010 • Parent run is 12 km with all its normal NAM products out to 84 hr • Add 4 km nests over CONUS and Alaska run to 48 hours only • Nested fields available ~3 hours earlier than HiResWindow • 4 km output grids would be additional to existing NAM 12 km suite • Possible move to new ESMF-based NEMS (NCEP Environmental Modeling Framework) • NEMS nesting would allow HI + PR nests too but WRF wouldn’t

  23. Future 4 km Nests Imbedded in 12 km NAM

  24. 12 km Terrain 4 km Terrain GFS ~35km Dots represent water points Domain is San Francisco Bay

  25. Hurricane Modeling

  26. Advanced Hurricane Modeling at EMC: The Hurricane WRF (HWRF) • Community based infrastructure • HWRF began development 2002 (so based on WRF v 2.0) • Non-hydrostatic hurricane model • NMM dynamic core, GFS physics • Movable, nested grid • Became operational in 2007 • GFDL now runs in parallel • Coupled air-sea-land prediction system • Using POM but will use HYCOM in the future • Advanced data assimilation for hurricane core • Making use of airborne doppler radar obs and land based radar

  27. HWRF Hurricane Wilma

  28. HWRF Dean E-W Cross

  29. 2008 HWRF UPGRADES • HURRICANE INITIALIZATION – improve initial structure for weaker storms; improved balance; makes better use of TPC observed intensity/structure • MODEL - eliminate noise over topography due to moving nest (reformulate SLP); remove erroneous residual TKE (now consistent w/GFS physics) • POM INITIALIZATION T&E (as requested by TPC) – ran ‘08 HWRF from ‘07 GFS for Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean

  30. Benchmark cases: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean HWRF Track Error HWRF ‘07 HWRF ‘08

  31. HWRF Intensity Error HWRF’07 HWRF’08

  32. Ocean Modeling http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov Surface Wave Forecasting Real-time Ocean Analysis and Forecasting Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

  33. WAVEWATCH III • Great Lakes Wave • to be driven by NWS NDFD forecast winds instead of NAM winds • Coupled modeling: • Parallel testing of coupled wave model as part of HWRF. • ESMF version of wave model for inclusion in NEMS. • Joining ensemble with FNMOC ensemble. • Beyond 2009: • Upgrade of all physics (NOPP projects with ONR and USACE). • Extension of WAVEWATCH III to coastal zone with specific focus on coupled wave-stormsurge modeling. • Site-specific WAVEWATCH III to replace local modeling efforts at WFOs and to create a spiral development path for coastal wave modeling.

  34. WAVEWATCH III • Still converting to new model code (multi-grid or mosaic approach). • Need to port data assimilation. • Need to port Hurricane wave models. • 2009 implementations on new computer: • Increase internal spectral model resolution in preparation for new physics. • Minor increase in model outputs, full use of increase in computational resources. • Generating model output (GRIB) “on-the-fly” as becomes available • Presently all model output is produced at the end of the forecast run.

  35. The multi-grid wave model Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy Highest model resolution in areas of special interest Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF

  36. Ocean modeling • RTOFS-Atlantic is the HYCOM-based Real Time Ocean Forecast system for the Atlantic ocean (1/12°, running daily). • In late 2009 or early 2010, we intend to implement an operational RTOFS-Global model at 1/12°. • Close cooperation with Navy being developed, Navy support needed until 2011 computer upgrade. • We may become a national portal for ocean model data from NOAA, Navy and other partners, as a part of a National Ocean Modeling Backbone Capability.

  37. Ocean modeling • Focus on coupled modeling: • HYCOM nested in RTOFS coupled in HWRF, parallel testing in 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season. • HYCOM is ESMF compliant • Ice model coupled into global HYCOM / RTOFS-Global. • Navy ice model available • NCEP and GLERL ice models under development. • Bring into NEMS. • Beyond 2009 working with Navy and NOPP partners on model improvement • Tides and internal tides. • Model efficiency. • Coupling to wave model for better boundary layer physics.

  38. NOAA NCEP Future Jigsaw • Concurrent global and mesoscale and mesoscale ensemble • Combined global-regional data assimilation • Support for NextGen • Enabled by ESMF (NCEP’s NEMS) • Reforecasts done routinely • Target 2015+ (subject to availability of funds)

  39. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Current - 2007 Current (2007) GDAS NAM anal GFS anal GFS SREF HUR NAM GENS/NAEFS RDAS AQ RTOFS CFS

  40. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 – 2015+ Computing factor: 81 Rap Refresh Reforecast SREF WAV • Added • Hourly GDAS & • RDAS • Moved • GFS concurrent • w/ NAM & SREF • Expanded • Hurricane • capability (hires) • Reforecast done • routinely HUR NAM CFS MFS Global GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ CFS & MFS Regional RDAS Hydro GRDAS

  41. Examples of Recent Predictions West Coast – December 1-3, 2007 January 4-6, 2008 Mid West – February 5-6, 2008

  42. Pacific Winter Storms • Dec. 1-3 2007, Jan. 4-6, 2008 • OR, WA OR,CA • Record-breaking winter storms • Predicted 7-8 days in advance • Ten feet of snow predicted 3 days in advance in CA (Jan storm) 12Z December 3, 2007

  43. West Coast Rain/Snow Event 00Z January 5, 2008 Forecast derived using a collaborative approach through all NWS forecast offices

  44. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Update • Issued each Monday by Climate Prediction Center • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf MJO Update issued December 24, 2007: • “Moderate MJO activity continues. After a short break, eastward propagation has resumed during the past week and the enhanced phase is currently centered in the western Maritime continent region… • Some potential exists for a heavy precipitation event tied to tropical convection by week 3. Currently, however, details of this potential event are unclear but interests along the west coast of the US should monitor the status of the MJO during the next 1-2 weeks.”

  45. January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm 8-14 Day Outlook

  46. January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm Hazards Assessment

  47. January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm 6-10 Day Outlook

  48. 4-5 Day Forecast January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm 48-h QPE ending 00Z 6 Jan x 8.78 HPC 48-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ending 00Z 6 JanIssued 00Z 1 JanDay 4-5 Forecast Verifying Analysis

  49. 1-3 Day Forecast January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm 72-h QPE ending 00Z 7 Jan x 10.24 HPC 72-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z 4 JanDay 1-3 forecast Verifying Analysis

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