A Hybrid Path to Entry

1. Alain L. Kornhauser Professor,Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at 91st Annual Meeting Transportation Research Board Washington, DC January 23, 2012 or Autonomous Vehicle Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)a Concept orThe Prospect for the Realization of Personal(izable)Rapid Transit(PRT) through Autonomous Taxis A Hybrid Path to Entry

2. Many Years Ago @ TRB • The Executive Director of APTA put his arm around me and said: • “Alain… • Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is the ‘System of the Future’, • And….. • Always Will Be!!! • A truly Prophetic Statement, • But…

3. Why would I or Anyone… http://www.bts.gov/publications/highlights_of_the_2001_national_household_travel_survey/html/figure_06.html • ever have an interest in PRT? • Well… • while PRT may always be the “System of the Future” • All other forms of Transit are hopelessly uncompetitive in serving anything but a few infinitesimally small and niche markets.

4. The Competition (the automobile) … http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Gasoline_inflation_chart.htm • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to Price: • A doubling in the Inflation adjusted price of gasoline

5. The Competition (the automobile) … hthttp://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/congestion_report/executive_summary.htm#congestion_worse • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to Congestion: • Increased in duration, intensity and extent

6. The Competition (the automobile) … http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has proved insensitive to PeerPressure: • Through the Clean Air Act of 1970, the automobile has been enormously robust in addressing environmental concerns

7. The Competition (the automobile) … http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressurefrom: • safety concerns; it has cut its fatality rate in half in last 25 years

8. The Competition (the automobile) … • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressurefrom: • Energy independence; substantial fuel efficiency improvements and conversions:

9. The Competition (the automobile) … http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2011/pdf/entire.pdf • provides a phenomenally better Value (Service_Price) • Its dominance has been robust to PeerPressurefrom: • safety concerns; it has cut its fatality rate in half in last 25 years

10. Why is Transit so unable to compete? For the most part: • The personal utility delivered by a trip varies wildly with a definitive extremum that depends on the detailed temporal and spatial characteristics of the trip. • Relatively few individuals tend to have Utility distributions that are compatible with the spatial and temporal service offerings of conventional mass. So… • People go out an buy cars and craft its use to capture the most utility out of every trip they make. • The car’s temporal flexibility and spatial ubiquity that allows its users to readily maximize their temporal-spatial utility.

11. PRT is … • An attempt to duplicate the car’s temporal availability and spatial ubiquity. • Temporal availability: vehicles repositioned in anticipation of demand and expeditiously dispatched once boarded • Spatial ubiquity: through the provision of stations efficiently interconnected off-line stations where some vehicles can wait for passengers while allowing others to pass by without delay

12. PRT is … • Since the Temporal-Spatial distribution of personal utility-maximizing travel demand is so diffuse: • The probability that more than a handful of people will want to travel at about the same time, from the same station and along a similar path is very small; thus, • the delivered service is usually Personal, and • when demand is high, informal ride share opportunities to efficiently “flatten out” the demand curve and avoid congestion at essentially no loss of utility. • PRT delivers all of the fundamental benefits of owning a car without the burdens of owning your own car.

13. So why hasn’t PRT Flourished?… • Scale: • When large, the spatial ubiquity flourishes • My classes have designed NJ State-wide PRT networks that place essentially every desired location within ¼ mile walk (no one needs a car!) ; however, it requires • ~10,000 off-line stations, and • ~ 10,000 miles of interconnect, mostly elevated guideway • When limited, spatial flexibility is limited • insufficient for more than a very few to give up their car. • So… • The initial evolutionary path form nothing to something is very challenging

14. So why hasn’t PRT Flourished?… • Infrastructure: • The guideway is largely duplicative of existing roadways • Even though it is small and narrow it is still duplicative • Guideway needs to be grade separated from roadways • It’s usually elevated or fenced; a visual blight (to least some) • Capital requirements remain in the private sector • Risk-reward measure remains squarely on “why bother”! • True for Speculators, Land Developers, Chartered Utilities, Monopolies and the Public Sector

15. There may be light in the tunnel… APMs are a mainstay at essentially every major airport WVU fully appreciates and acknowledges the essential value of its 40 year old PRT system New PRT systems are operational in Masdar and Heathrow New systems are under construction in Korea and about to commence in India Price of the communications and automatic controls is going to zero

16. The biggest light may be… • The Advances in Autonomous Vehicle Control • Much of it fueled by the DARPA Grand Challenges ’04, ‘05, ’07 • Continued on by researchers, entrepreneurs and manufacturers • Lane departure warning and lane keeping • Frontal collision warning and avoidance • Many individual autonomous vehicle initiatives • Princeton: Prospect 12 … objective to pass NJ DMV driver’s test • Italians • Germans • VT, CMU, Stanford, … • Google • All with the objective of placing sufficient intelligence in a vehicle so that it can operate safely and efficiently on existing street mixed in with human operated vehicle

17. It is Clear… • We aren’t very good drivers • We prefer to • text, talk, drink, sleep, daydream, rather than drive • Driving is boring, an insult to our intelligence! • Once upon a time… • I shifted gears, controlled my cruise speed with my foot and closely planned my every turn • Hopefully… • I’ll no longer have to steer, brake, or pay attention. • Chances are: People will gladly pay for such service

18. If I don’t have to drive… • Why should I own??? • If I pay enough… • One will show up at my front door and properly deploy itself at my destination. • If demand is too high… • I can walk to a nearby autonomous taxi stand and contribute to ridesharing.

19. To serve New Jersey’s • ~30 million daily trips, I need… • NJ Transit rail and express bus operation to continue operation • ~10,000 off-street Autonomous Taxi locations • ~1,000,000 autonomous vehicles • All operating on existing streets • that could continue to be used for goods movement, emergency management, bicyclists, walkers. • Thank You