Myths and Realities of Doing Business in Mexico

1. Myths and Realities of Doing Business in Mexico Jerry Pacheco Executive Director – International Business Accelerator jerry@nmiba.com

2. Mexico Myths • ‘Not a significant market, other than basic goods’ • ‘Continuous economic crises – no stability’ • ‘The peso is worthless, inflation is rampant’ • ‘Technological backwardness’ • ‘Industry is dominated by US-led maquiladoras’ • ‘Mexican culture is not conducive to business’ • Corruption • Land of mañana • ‘Mexico is a failed narco-state’

3. Myth: Mexico is too poor to be a significant market for anything but basic goods • Reality: • Mexico is a middle-income country • GDP per capita (nominal / PPP): $8,143 / $14,335 • Comparable w/ Russia, Arg., Chile, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia • 2.5X the GDP/capita of China and 6X that of India • US GDP per capita - $45,989 / $ 45,989 • China GDP per capita - $3,650 / $6,828 • India GDP per capita - $1,134 / $3,270 • 2nd most important metropolitan market for high-end luxury goods in the Americas – Mexico City • 2nd largest market for US exports (exports to Mex > exports to China + Japan)

4. Myth: Mexico has constant economic crises, the peso is worthless, & inflation is high • Reality: • Cycle of econ. crises (1976, 1982, 1986-87, 1994) was broken in 2000 and 2006 • Avoided contagion from emerging market crises (e.g., Southeast Asia, Argentina) • Peso – stronger & more stable than US$ for much of the last decade (until recently) • Inflation < 5%; investment grade status

5. Myth: Mexican industry is technologically backward and dominated by US-led maquilas • Reality: • Technologically-advanced engineering & production capabilities • Approximately 75 Mexican companies with revenues greater than US$1billion/year • An emerging entrepreneurial culture • Dominant role of maquiladoras is limited to border

6. Myth: Mexican culture is not conducive to business: corruption, land of mañana • Reality: • Carlos Fuentes: • “The Mexican mañana does not mean putting things off till the morrow. It means not letting the future intrude on the sacred completeness of today.” • Comparatively moderate levels of corruption & largely limited to government • Workforce is young and ambitious, with strong technical skills and work ethic • Important to recognize the distinction between social culture and business culture

7. Myth: Mexico is now a failed narco-state • Reality: • Violence & insecurity are a huge social problem, but the economic impact has been limited so far • Murder rate of US citizens (50/year for 1.5-2 million people) = 1/2 of Albuquerque’s or 1/4 of Houston’s. • Violence is concentrated in key states and among those involved in drug trade, security, media • JP Morgan Chase estimates economic cost at 1.0-1.5% of GDP • Risk is no higher/lower than US in much of Mexico, just different • Huge challenge as violence spreads to unexpected areas (e.g., Monterrey) and in unpredictable patterns

9. 10-Minute Economic History of Mexico

10. Pre-Columbian Era to the Revolution • Mexico City – focal point of civilization • 1500-100K inhabitants, 30M in Mexico • Architecture, irrigation, engineering, writing • Feudal system: caciques and tribute • 1520-1810 – Spanish imperialist economy • Emergence of ‘la raza’ • 1810-1910 – Incomplete independence • Spanish control displaced, but feudal system remained (caudillos)

11. The Revolution and the ‘Institutionalized Revolution’ • 1910-Díaz regime ousted • Zapata, Villa, Carranza, Obregón • The revolution never ended, but was ‘institutionalized’ (PRI) • Economic system inspired by the revolution, but patterned after colonialism • Unequal development; closed economy • Poor separation of firm & state

12. The Technocrats and ‘The Crisis’ • Pattern of sexenio crises, 1976-1994 • Curse of oil & ‘administering the abundance’ • Technocrat Presidents • De la Madrid and the ‘lost decade’ (1980s) • Salinas de Gortari – renewed hope, shattered dreams, and the ‘errors of December’ (1994) • Zedillo – weak but transformational sexenio

13. Economic Reforms, 1980-2000 • Monetary & Fiscal Policy • Inflation reached 100+%, now under 5% • Balanced budgets • Deregulation & Privatization • Privatization of banks, rail, telcom, industry • FDI & franchise laws; increased transparency • Trade Liberalization – Export Orientation • GATT (max tariffs from 100% to 20%) • NAFTA (nearly all tariffs eliminated by 2003)

14. The Mexican Business Environment in the new Millennium

15. New Millenium: A ‘New’ Mexico? • Political change • 2000 elections: Vicente Fox (PAN) • Political pluralism = Political Gridlock • PAN – Presidency • PRI – Senate and Chamber of Deputies • PRD – Governorships, Mayor of Mexico City • 2006 elections: Felipe Calderon (PAN) • AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) factor • Gridlock continues • 2012 elections: The Pena Nieto Administration • New Federalism in EstadosUnidosMexicanos • Increasing importance of states & municipios

16. Recent Economic Performance: Reasons for Renewed Optimism • Consistent economic growth 1995-2000 • Change in GDP under Zedillo: • 1995: - 6.2% • 1996: +5.1% • 1997: +6.8% • 1998: +4.9% • 1999: +3.9% • 2000: +6.6% • Stagnation under PAN, 2000-2010 • Change in GDP under Fox/Calderon: • 2001: - 0.2% • 2002: +0.8% • 2003: +1.4% • 2004: +4.2% • 2005: +3.2% • 2006: +4.8% • 2007: +3.2% • 2008: +1.8% • 2009: -6.5% • 2010: +5.4% • 2011: +5.0%

17. Lingering Pessimism:Limits to Development • Economic, Political & Social Issues: • ‘So far from God, so close to the US…’ • Dependence on oil, maquiladoras, exports • Unequal living standards/poverty/stagnant real wages • Drugs & drug-related violence, lawlessness • Immigration & the loss of human capital • The natural environment & water • Indigenous issues & Chiapas • Legal, tax, labor reforms • Deregulation (telecommunications, electricity)

18. Demographics • 2010 Population: 110 Million (1950-25M) • 93% literacy • Education expenditures: 6% of GDP (US-5%) • Life expectancy: 75 years (US-78 years) • Urbanization: 77% (US-82%) • Access to potable water: 83% (Korea-83%) • Physicians/100,000 people: 120 (US-280) • GDP/capita (nom/PPP) = $8,143 / $14,335

19. The Many Mexicos: Mexico City • The Capital: 25M inhabitants • Largest city in the world (along with others) • Distrito Federal: Seat of power for government, financial, & corporate (domestic & MNCs) sectors • No manufacturing • Los chilangos: • Fast-paced, chaotic lifestyle • Cosmopolitan, status-conscious culture

20. The Many Mexicos: Monterrey • The Sultan of the North • Economic Sectors: • Traditional strength in heavy industry (steel, autos, other manufacturing) • Migrating to new economy & higher value-added • Cemex, Alfa (Alpek, Nemak), Vitro, Femsa • Los regiomontanos: • The Texans of Mexico

21. The Many Mexicos: Jalisco • Guadalajara: The ‘Mexican’ City • Economy oriented toward: • Traditional sector (textiles, furniture, ceramics, tequila, mariachis) • High-Tech (IBM, Acer, other telcom/IT equip) • Los tapatios: • Unique mixture of traditional Mexico with global orientation

22. The Many Mexicos: The Border • 2,000 miles and 10%-25% of Mexico’s pop. • Historical importance is less than the rest of Mexico • 1940-1970: Border population grew 10 times • High interdependence with US economy • For better and for worse • Does NAFTA make the border more relevant, or less relevant?

23. Economic Sectors

24. Manufacturing • Traditional strength: low-tech & heavy mfg. • Steel, auto parts, products for domestic market • Low-end export items (golf club shafts) • Transformation of Mexican manufacturing: • Emphasis on ISO 9000 • Capital-intensive activities • From wire harnesses to electronics systems

25. Maquiladoras • ~$120B/year in exports (half of Mexico’s total) • But only ~1/5 is value added • Highly cyclical, vulnerable to global econ. • Sectors: autos, electronics, apparel • Locations: Cd. Juárez, Tijuana, border • First-generation maquilas no longer competitive; upgrading is essential

26. Non-Maquila Manufacturing • There’s more to manufacturing in Mexico than the maquiladoras; line is blurring • IMMEX: new umbrella for maquila, Pitex (preferential tariff treatment for temporary imports), other • The border v. the interior. • Border plants tend to follow ‘twin-plant’ model. • Plants in the interior are more likely to serve the Mexican market.

27. Financial Sector • Tumultuous history of banking sector • Nationalized, then privatized, then bankrupt, then sold off to foreigners; now stable • Bank loans as % of GDP: 40% in 1994, then down to 10%, now 15% (global average=136%) • Leading players are foreign: Citibank (Banamex), BBVA (Bancomer), Santander (Serfin) • (Re-)Emergence of middle class creating opportunity for insurance/other fin. Services • Interest rates have declined, but credit is still scarce for the private sector • Credit available for consumption, not investments

28. Other Sectors • Energy: continued state dominance • Pemex (oil), CFE (electricity) • Tourism • Traditional emphasis on state-led developments • Transition to diffused & sustainable development • Professional services • Potential competitive advantage for NM & Hispanic-owned firms

29. The ‘Grupos’ • Importance of the diversified conglomerate • Relation to other emerging markets • Spin-offs of historic Grupo Monterrey • Alfa, Vitro, Femsa and many subsidiaries • Other important grupos: • GrupoCarso (America Movil, Telmex, Telcel, Prodigy, Sanborns, CompUSA, Xignux, Frisco, banks) • Grupo Bimbo • Televisa

30. Entrepreneurship in Mexico • There’s more to Mexico than maquilas, PEMEX, and the grupos. • Mexico has one of the highest rates of entrepreneurship in the world. • Entrepreneurial activity is driven both by necessity and by opportunity. • Economic activity in Mexico remains regionalized or localized. • Growth in microfinance & social entrepreneurship

31. New Mexico and Old Mexico • Where does NM stand in terms of trade and investment ties with Mexico? • NM exports are climbing to $500/year to Mexico (of $1.5B/year to all countries) • Mexico is #1 market for NM in dollar terms and in number of products. • NM imports about $652M/year from Mexico, of $2B total • 35th state in exports to Mexico; 46th in exports to world • BUT, we must account for the nature of NM’s economy. • 43rd state in terms of exports as % of GSP • 20th state in terms of exports to Mexico as % of GSP