APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

1. APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY KIP/ASVT 2009/10

2. Accelerating Growth

9. Double exponential growth • There's exponential growth even in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year • It took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day.

10. Every point on the exponential growth curves represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition. It is remarkable that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. • For example, when the human genome scan started, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule.

14. Communications • Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications. • Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others.

17. Internet • The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts

20. Wireless communication • the power is doubling every 10 to 11 months.

22. 1973 - Network Voice Protocol introduced • 1980 - Internet Protocol came into existence • 1989 - ISDN/Integrated Services Digital Network came into existence • 1991 - The first GSM network was launched in 1991 by Radiolinja in Finland. • 1995 - First VoIP connection • 2001 - Vonage founded • 2002 - Skype founded • December 2006 - Over 8 million concurrent users on Skype • 2006 - 7% of all international US voice traffic was sent through Skype

23. Economy • Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classesare fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. • The reason that these linear models appear to work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. • But once the "knee of the curve" is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. • The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century:

25. Software Price-Performance • has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate • Example: Automatic Speech Recognition Software

27. Diminishing returns - 1 • Diminishing returns(also diminishing marginal returns, the law of diminishing returns, law of increasing relative cost, or law of increasing opportunity cost):in a production system with fixed and variable inputs (say factory size and labor), beyond some point, each additional unit of variable input yields less and less additional output. Conversely, producing one more unit of output costs more and more in variable inputs. • Although ostensibly a purely economic concept, diminishing marginal returns also implies a technological relationship. Diminishing marginal returns states that a firm's short run marginal cost curve will eventually increase. It is possibly among the best-known economic "laws."

28. Diminishing returns - 2 • Suppose that one kilogram (kg) of seed applied to a plot of land of a fixed size produces one ton of harvestable crop. You might expect that an additional kilogram of seed would produce an additional ton of output. However, if there are diminishing marginal returns, that additional kilogram will produce less than one additional ton of harvestable crop (on the same land, during the same growing season, and with nothing else but the amount of seeds planted changing). For example, the second kilogram of seed may only produce a half ton of extra output. Diminishing marginal returns also implies that a third kilogram of seed will produce an additional crop that is even less than a half ton of additional output. Assume that it is one quarter of a ton.

29. Diminishing returns - 3 • A consequence of diminishing marginal returns is that as total investment increases, the total return on investment as a proportion of the total investment (the average product or return) also decreases. The return from investing the first kilogram is 1 t/kg. The total return when 2 kg of seed are invested is 1.5/2 = 0.75 t/kg, while the total return when 3 kg are invested is 1.75/3 = 0.58 t/kg.

30. Resources • Ray Kurzweil: The Law of Accelerating Returns, http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change

32. iPod-iTunes-iPhone

33. iPod

34. iPod • launched in October 2001 • over 110 million units worldwide, as of September 2007 • iPod can play a variety of audio file formats • The iPod photo introduced the ability to display numerous image file formats.

35. Each time an iPod connects to its host computer, iTunes can synchronize entire music libraries or music playlists either automatically or manually. Song ratings can be set on the iPod and synchronized later to the iTunes library, and vice versa

36. iPod timeline

37. iPod sales

38. Jan 2007: Apple reported record quarterly earnings of US$7.1 billion, of which 48% was made from iPod sales. • On Apr 9, 2007, it was announced that Apple had sold its one-hundred millionth iPod, making it the biggest selling digital music player of all time. • In April 2007, Apple reported second quarter earnings of US$5.2 billion, of which 32% was made from iPod sales. • Apple and several industry analysts suggest that iPod users are likely to purchase other Apple products such as Mac computers. • On Sep 5, 2007, Apple announced that the iPod had surpassed 110 million units sold.

39. iTunes • playing and organizing digital music and video files • available as a free download • users are able to organize their music into playlists within one or more libraries, edit file information, record CD, copy files, purchase music and videos through its built-in music store, download podcasts, back up songs onto a CD or DVD, encode music into a number of different audio formats. • 2005: support for purchasing and viewing of video content from the iTunes Music Store

40. iTunes Store • opening: Apr 2008, 2003 • Jul 31, 2007: over 3 billion downloads since iTunes was first introduced - more than 80% of worldwide online digital music sales

41. Prices • DRM versions of songs cost $0.99 • DRM-free versions of certain songs are additionally available for US$1.29 • European prices oscillate around €0.99 • Television episodes $1.99 • Feature-length movies $9.99 for older movies, $12.99 for new movies • games $4.99 each

42. Contents • more than 6,000,000 songs • over 20,000 audiobooks • Apr 11, 2007: over 500 movies

43. DRM • Apple's FairPlay digital rights management (DRM) is integrated into iTunes, which manages songs purchased from iTunes Store. iTunes relies on FairPlay to implement two main restrictions: • Users can make a maximum of seven CD copies of any particular playlist containing songs purchased from the iTunes Store. • Users can access their purchased songs on a maximum of five computers. • There are no restrictions on number of iPods to which a purchased song can be transferred nor the number of times any individual song can be burned to CD.

44. iPhone • introduced Jun 29, 2007 in the US, current price is $399 for an 8 GB model • Nov 9, 2007 • UK O2: on the carrier • Germany T-Mobile • Czech Republic: T-mobile • iPhone users must use iTunes to select and purchase a contract tariff before the phone features may be used

45. Technology • the iPhone is manufactured on contract in the Shenzhen factory of the Taiwanese company Hon Hai • Storage: 8 GB flash memory • Quad band GSM • Wi-Fi, EDGE and Bluetooth 2.0 • 2 megapixel camera • more than 300 patents related to the technology behind the iPhone

46. Apple - Mission Statement • Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. • Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications. • Apple is also spearheading the digital media revolution with its iPod portable music and video players and iTunes online store, and has entered the mobile phone market this year with its revolutionary iPhone

47. Slogans • Byte into an Apple • iThink, therefore iMac

48. Nanotechnology

49. technology whose unifying theme is the control of matter on the atomic and molecular level in scales from 1 to 100 nanometers (10-9 m), and the fabrication of devices within that size range • „bottom-up" approach: materials and devices are built from molecular components which assemble themselves chemically by principles of molecular recognition • "top-down" approach: nano-objects are constructed from larger entities without atomic-level control

50. Links How can you explain what is meant by nanotechnology? Nanotechnology: Innovation for tomorrow´s world