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P O R T F O L I O D E C I S I O N A N A L Y S I S

Decision rules, e.g. minimax regret. Selected. Core projects “Robust zone”  Choose. • Large set of projects • Multiple criteria • Incomplete information. quantity ( q j ). t + n. t + n. t + 1. t + 1. 1 2 3 4 5. Border line projects “uncertain zone” Focus.

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P O R T F O L I O D E C I S I O N A N A L Y S I S

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  1. Decision rules, e.g. minimax regret Selected Core projects “Robust zone”  Choose •Large set of projects •Multiple criteria •Incomplete information quantity (qj) t + n t + n t + 1 t + 1 1 2 3 4 5 • Border line projects“uncertain zone” • Focus Core $ •Wide intervals •Loose weight statements •Narrower intervals •Stricter weights Border class (j) 1 2 3 4 5 Not selected Exterior Exterior projects“Robust zone”  Discard 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation. Manual iteration. Heuristic rules. Research successful? Development successful? Development successful? … … … Yr. Yr. 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2037 Yr. 2007 2008 Systems Analysis Laboratory Updated 17.05.2010 P O R T F O L I O D E C IS I O N A N A L Y S I S methods, models and software for resource allocation and portfolio management infrastructure asset management Overall value Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) energy and natural resources Road safety Asset value Customer satisfaction Environment technology management RPM-Decisions software cost-efficiency analysisof weapon systems Impact criterion 1 robust combinatorial optimization Competes 3 4 Sales Critical yes Critical pd+(rD) Critical Impact criterion 2 1-pd+ (rD) ps (rs) 1 6 7 no Commit rS ,rDresources No Sales Competes yes Beneficial Beneficial no yes Critical 1- ps (rs) Competes Sales rs= Research resources pd- (rD) 2 5 web-sites and selected publications rd = Development resources Critical 1-pd-(rD) no ps = Research success probability No Sales pd+ , pd= Development success probability www.rpm.tkk.fi E Vilkkumaa, J Liesiö, A Salo. Multicriteria Portfolio Modeling for the Development of Shared Action Agendas, Group Decision and Negotiation (to appear), 2010. P Mild, A Salo. Combining a Multiattribute Value Function with an Optimization Model: An Application to Dynamic Resource Allocation for Infrastructure Maintenance, Decision Analysis, 2009. V Brummer, A Salo, J Nissinen, J Liesiö. A Methodology for the Identification of Prospective Collaboration Networks in International R&D Programs, Int. J. of Technology Management (IJTM) 2009. J Liesiö, P Mild, A Salo. Robust Portfolio Modeling with Incomplete Cost Information and Project Interdependencies, Eur. J. of Operational Research (EJOR), 2008. M Lindstedt, J Liesiö, A Salo. Participatory Development of a Strategic Product Portfolio in a Telecommunication Company, IJTM, 2008. J Liesiö, P Mild, A Salo. Preference Programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and Project Selection, EJOR, 2007. J Gustafsson, A Salo. Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects, Operations Research, 2005. Decision node Uncertainty node Value node

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