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Main idea:

Using the ‘jobs approach’ to describe shifts in the employment structure in Europe during the Great Recession. Main idea: Take as unit of analysis a “job” understood as an occupation in a sector (ie. as cells in the horizontal (NACE2d) and vertical (ISCO2d) division of labour)

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Main idea:

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  1. Using the ‘jobs approach’ to describe shifts in the employment structure in Europe during the Great Recession

  2. Main idea: Take as unit of analysis a “job” understood as an occupation in a sector (ie. as cells in the horizontal (NACE2d) and vertical (ISCO2d) division of labour) rank jobs qualitatively in each country quantify employment shifts across the job quality distribution. Method first used by J. Stiglitz, and refined by E.O. Wright / R.Dwyer - USA First cross-national application in Europe (to 23 MSs for 1995-2006) in More and better jobs?: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe, 1995-2006 (www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0850.htm ) M.Goos/A.Manning use a variant of the method - The polarisation of employment in Europe (2010) . Today’s presentation based on prelim version of report ‘Shifts in the employment structure during the Great Recession’ by J.Hurley/D.Storrie (forthcoming, Eurofound) To add a qualitative dimension to net employment change data (ELFS) using wage (as a proxy of job quality) to rank jobs but other possibilities including education/skill-level, a synthetic indicator of quality of work … The ‘jobs’ approach: overview

  3. European Labour Force Survey Breaks in data 2007 – transition to NACE (sector) rev 2.0 3yrs of ELFS data with the new sector classification. Wage data in the ELFS available for 14 countries Source: ELFS 2008 annual data Mean net wage per hour per employee in job Data not available for all countries, yet. Our solution: To enquire with MSs for missing countries. Positive response from Denmark Generate a common EU ranking (based on 13 MS inc UK, IT, FR and PL) and apply to countries where we have no data. Second-best but practical. High level of correlation of job-wage ranks between countries. First application of ‘jobs approach’ using NACE rev 2 sector data with up-to-date data. This report, to be published: analysis of change in structure of jobs between 2008Q2 & 2010Q2. But first how to rank jobs & present results in quintiles Jobs approach: data

  4. For each country, a job ranking . . . • Rank Sector Occupation • Financial services Corporate managers • Legal /accounting Other professionals • Education Teaching professionals • Human health activities Life science and health profs • ....... • …… • Agriculture Skilled agric / fishery workers • Services to buildings Sales/services elementary occups • Education Sales/services elementary occups • Food manufacture Craft workers … leading to a quintile assignment Quintiles

  5. Recent employment expansionsin EU and US (different periods)

  6. The Great Recession: 5m jobs lost in the EU

  7. Before and after . . .

  8. Comparing job-wage and job-skill rankings (% per annum employment change by quintile, EU27)

  9. Variety of national patterns(2008-10) Downgrading Polarisation Upgrading

  10. Sector: loss concentrated in manufacturing / construction

  11. Services, esp public sector: where the growth was

  12. Gender: heavy male job losses, heavily polarised

  13. Education

  14. Radically different impactsby age group

  15. Foreign-born workers:Growth in low-paid employment

  16. Temporary work: The fall and rise

  17. Part-time work:Increasing across the board

  18. From upgrading with some polarisation (98-07) to polarisation with some upgrading (08-10) Gender: “a very male recession” – not only quantitatively Age:- old gained in all quintiles esp. at the top- young lose in all quintiles esp. towards the bottom Part-time- net gains equally shared between sexes- male in lower quintiles, women in higher Temporary work- Steep losses 08-09, rapid growth 09-10- shift to lower quintiles In summary

  19. Disappearing middle What do those who lose their jobs in medium-paying jobs do? Polarisation – distributional inequality, ‘Blocs’ of good and bad jobs Different patterns of emp change across countries Youth unemployment ‘New skills for new jobs’? Employment incentives Destandardisation Next 5 years? The public sector Implications

  20. Appendices

  21. MAIN

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