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WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements

WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements. Tom Moore March 24, 2004 Air Managers’ Committee § 308/ § 309(g) Implementation Workgroup. 2004 WRAP Technical Work Elements. Topics Today Attribution of Haze Project TOC-sponsored Emissions Inventories

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WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements

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  1. WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements Tom Moore March 24, 2004 Air Managers’ Committee §308/§309(g) Implementation Workgroup

  2. 2004 WRAP Technical Work Elements • Topics Today • Attribution of Haze Project • TOC-sponsored • Emissions Inventories • EDMS collaborative effort – Emissions\Fire\Dust Forums • Emissions Inventories’ Status – focus on fire EIs • Regional Modeling Center • Source Apportionment based on “interim” 2002 EIs • AQ Modeling Forum-sponsored • Causes of Haze Assessment • Ambient Monitoring Forum-sponsored

  3. 2004 WRAP Technical Work Elements • Start of technical and policy analysis path to Regional Haze Plans due by end of 2007 • Technical analyses to understand: • 2000-04 Baseline and 2064 natural conditions • Reasonable Progress to national visibility goal • Emissions reductions needed to achieve RP to 2018 • Technical Activities - what is going on now?

  4. 2004 AoH Project Data Sources • Source apportionment modeling simulations from the Regional Modeling Center • Receptor-oriented source contribution analyses of aerosol and meteorological monitoring data from the Causes of Haze Assessment project • Existing and refined emissions inventories from the Dust, Emissions, and Fire Forums • Special-purpose source attribution studies such as BRAVO, et cetera • EPA technical guidance documents and analyses • Journal publications, and workshop/conference reports addressing emissions and visibility impairment

  5. 2004 AoH Project Deliverables • Identify: • Geographic source areas of emissions that contribute to impairment at each mandatory federal and tribal Class I area • Mass and species distributions of emissions by source categories within each contributing geographic source area • The amount of natural and manmade emissions affecting each Class I area

  6. 2004 AoH Project Deliverables • Provide: • Documentation of the assumptions, methods, and uncertainties used in the integrated analyses of modeling, monitoring, and emissions data. • Succinct, clear summaries for policymakers, of the estimated areas and sources of impairment for each Class I area, including the associated uncertainty

  7. AoH Project Schedule • January – March • Organizational meeting – March 29-30 – workgroup page on WRAP website • Develop scope of work for contractor support + hire • April – June • Review/discuss existing source attribution studies (BRAVO, et cetera) • Contractor to identify data available for AoH project • July – September • Review/discuss work products from RMC, CoHA, and EIs • Assign expert review topics

  8. AoH Project Schedule • October – December • Continue review/discussion of work products from RMC, CoHA, and EIs • Review/discuss draft reports from expert reviewers • Review first draft of AoH report prepared by contractor • January 2005 • Publish final 2004 AoH report • Make plan for subsequent workgroup activities

  9. Emissions Data Management System • Regional data center to identify existing, projected, and future control levels of emissions (more detail later this morning) • Provide a “bucket” to store state and tribal EIs, as basis of Regional Haze Plans • Complete EI for WRAP region • Provide modeling input files • Under construction now, on-line late 2004 • www.pechan.com/edms

  10. EDMS Project – 2004 - Phase 1 Purpose • Regional Haze Rule • Implementation • Performance Monitoring • Region-Wide Emission Inventory • Analysis of Collected Data • Emissions Comparisons • Emissions Trends Analysis

  11. EDMS Project – 2004 - Phase 1 Need to add to map Concepts GIS/Layers

  12. 2002 “Interim” Emissions Inventories • Existing EI Data from §309 work • Mobile (on-road and non-road) • Road Dust (paved and unpaved) • Improved EI Data • Point and Area from 1999 NEI (CENRAP + WRAP) • Ammonia • Biogenics • Windblown Dust • EI Development Work • Fire • Mexico/Canada

  13. Fire EI Tasks (task notes on following slides, resulting from discussions at 12/19/02 FEJF meeting)

  14. Task 1Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire • 2002 actual Wildfire EI – by April 2004 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI (using NIFC and other state electronic data to supplement emissions estimates) – April 2004 • 2002 actual Ag fire EI (may use 2018 BSM for now) • Used for model performance evaluation – ambient monitoring data compared to model results • Provides confidence in using model to characterize current and future years’ planning EIs • Used to test geographic source apportionment – effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation, or other geographic area • Provides modeling estimate of contributions from each upwind source jurisdiction

  15. Task 2Initial Modeling Apportionment EI - Fire • Start with Phase I 2002 actual EI(s) • 2002 actual Wildfire EI - 8/2004 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI - 8/2004 (split natural versus anthropogenic) • 2002 actual Ag fire EI - 8/2004 • For all 3 types of fire: • Used to complete Strategic Plan 2004 deliverable (geographic source apportionment) for TOC Attribution of Haze project • Effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation, or other geographic area • Modeling analysis of natural versus anthropogenic

  16. Task 3Planning Baseline Period EI - Fire • Start/stay with Task 2 2002 EI format for consistency • Use at least 2000-04 data, could be longer period, must be representative of regional haze baseline period • Wildfire EI - 1/2005 • Rx fire EI - 1/2005 • Ag fire EI - 1/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?

  17. Task 4Planning 2018 Projection Year EI - Fire • Stay with Task 3 Baseline Planning 2002 EI format for consistency • Base projections on predictable variables, may only provide ranges or scenarios of emissions • Wildfire EI - 5/2005 • Rx fire EI - 5/2005 • Ag fire EI - 5/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?

  18. 2004 Regional Modeling Center Workplan • The Air Quality Modeling Forum has two major areas of activity planned for 2004: • The Regional Modeling Center (RMC) will continue to operate and will implement many of the tools and improvements developed in 2003. • The RMC will use the same team of contractors (UCR, ENVIRON, CEP) that have been used for the past 2 years • The final work plan is being amended into the existing RMC contract. • The second major area of activity is to initiate modeling for Class I areas in Alaska.

  19. 2004 Regional Modeling Center Workplan Major Elements • Project Administration • 2002 year MM5 Modeling data – for now and later • 2002 “Interim” Base Emissions Inventory processing • CMAQ Runs & Evaluation – based on modeling protocol • Source Apportionment (described later) • Natural vs. Anthropogenic Analysis • Windblown Fugitive Dust Model • Fire Sensitivity • Fire De Minimus • Alaska Modeling Lesser Elements • Emissions Speciation • Model Performance Software • Comparison of Alternate Models (AQ & meteorology) As needed: • Training

  20. Gridded Dispersion Modeling - Source Apportionment • Project Manager - Gail Tonnesen, University of California, Riverside • Regional Modeling Center Team • University of California, Riverside • ENVIRON Corporation • Carolina Environmental Programs at University of North Carolina • http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/

  21. Motivation • Need to understand which emissions sources contribute to haze and other pollutants. • Europeans call these “Blame Matrices” • Use this information to assist in developing control strategies.

  22. Modeling Approaches • Sensitivity Studies: • Brute Force: Zero-in or Zero-out a single source. • DDM Sensitivity – efficient but non-linear. • Use tracers or “tagged species” to track mass from a source type: • UCR and ENVIRON are implementing similar tracer algorithms in CMAQ and CAMx. • Modeling back-trajectories. • Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). • Hybrid Approaches: OSAT • Uses tracers to track O3 formation that was sensitive to VOC or NOx.

  23. Tagged Species Approach • Use “Tagged Species” tracers to track chemical transformations and the movement and chemical conversion of mass across domain. • Add source type tracers for key species and for defined regions and source categories. • Outputs 3-D fields showing transport of secondary species. • Also outputs bar plots showing contributions at each receptor site.

  24. Chemical Transformations • Emissions are as NOx = NO + NO2 • Use integrated reaction rates at each time step to update the tagged species: • NOX  PAN • NOX  Organic NO3 • NOX  HNO3 • HNO3  Aerosol NO3

  25. Tagged Species for Nitrates • NOX = reactive N family. = { NO, NO2, NO3, 2*N2O5, HONO, PNA} • HNO3 • PAN • Organic NO3 • Aerosol NO3

  26. Traced Area: WRAP Modeling Domain Source Area Mapping File: Each state is distinguished by a unique number

  27. Transport & Loss Terms • Use CMAQ transport solvers for advection and dispersion of each tracer. • Also update for mass export in cloud and aqueous chemistry algorithms. • Update tagged species for emissions and deposition terms. • Check for mass conservation at each step and adjust mass if needed. Halt if large errors.

  28. Traced Source Tags

  29. Contributions to Aerosol NO3 at Yosemite

  30. Causes of Haze Assessment Project • Project Manager – Mark Green, Desert Research Institute • 4-year project – 2004 is year 2 • CoHA Team – DRI + other analysts • http://coha.dri.edu • Userid = dri-coha • Password = hazeyweb

  31. CoHA Approach Determine causes of haze at WRAP and CENRAP Class I areas, tribal and selected CENRAP IMPROVE protocol sites 5

  32. CoHA Study Data • Began analysis of 1997 to 2002 IMPROVE and protocol database • Primarily using IMPROVE and protocol sites with full speciation data in the study region (118 sites by December 2002) • Using nationwide network of 158 sites (end of 2002) to establish continental and regional setting

  33. CoHA not just computing statistics, but forming conclusions regarding the causes of the haze • First complete a set of descriptive analyses, maps, and other graphics for aerosol composition, spatial and temporal variation, emissions, land use, topographic effects, transport patterns, local wind patterns etc • Do episode analyses to determine likely causes of haze for various commonly and uncommonly occurring conditions • Using above resources form conceptual models of causes of haze and assign quantitative number based on frequency of occurrence of conditions

  34. Causes of Haze likely to be segregated by compound of interest, e.g. sulfate and by geographic area - by source type as possible • Example: • Sulfate causes 50% of aerosol haze at Area A - 60% of which is generated within the WRAP area, mainly in the states of B,C,and D, 20% is transported into the RPO from states to the east of WRAP and mainly in summer, and 20% from other countries (mostly Country F). Based upon emissions inventory, it is estimated that 80% of the sulfate haze is due to source type G. • Nitrate is X % of the haze, 50% of which … • Carbon, coarse mass - probably more difficult

  35. The Causes of Haze web site is online now in a DRAFT, password protected form: http://coha.dri.edu Username: dri-coha Password: hazeyweb Much of the web site is a shell ready to receive data and causes of haze information that we generate 8

  36. Aerosol Descriptive Analysis • Provides answers to the questions: • For the years 1997-2002, how many measurements are available for the site in each month of each year, and what are the contributions of the major aerosol components to light extinction in each month of each year? • What is the overall average light extinction at the site, and what are the contributions of the major aerosol components to the light extinction? • What are the light extinction contributions by the major aerosol components for best, worst and average days and how do they compare? • What percentage of the sampling days are the worst days in each month & how variable are the chemical components?

  37. Sample Aerosol Description Page Overall average light extinction and contributions of major aerosol chemical components to light extinction Average contributions of major aerosol chemical components to light extinction in 20% best, middle 60% and 20% worst days Percentage of sampling days that are 20% worst days in each month Average contributions of major aerosol chemical components to light extinction during 20% worst days in each month

  38. Meteorological & Emissions Descriptive Analysis • Archived monitoring network locations, climate, emissions, wildfires, census, political, physical, and image databases • Information from these databases are helping us build conceptual models and answer descriptive analysis questions by visualizing data (e.g. map emissions densities) • Assist us in the general and detailed description of the meteorological setting of each site • Creating maps of emissions surrounding each site at two scales: 2 km and 20 km- Regional emission maps to be added • Include table of surrounding point sources ranked by distance and emission rate

  39. 20 Km terrain

  40. 2 Km terrain

  41. Trajectory Analysis Status • Three years (2000-2002), three heights (10, 500, 1500m), every three hours, 8 days back • HYSPLIT v4.6 model calculations done for all sites • Trajectory output processed and stored in database • Trajectory tool developed to produce ASCII summary files and convert trajectories into shape files • Generate summary maps • Generate monthly and annual residence time maps, 20% best, 20% worst extinction, conditional probability • Finalizing process to generate all maps, all sites in one batch- should be done late February

  42. Episode Analysis • Use combination of back trajectory, synoptic, mesoscale meteorological analysis, aerosol and emissions data to conceptually understand single site and regional or sub-regional episodes of high aerosol component concentrations • Systematic survey of episodes from the 1997 to 2002 IMPROVE database

  43. “Hazagon” Analysis • The hazagon provides a way to visualize speciated extinction for those sites in the 20% worst category 25

  44. Future Phases • Evaluation of EDAS wind field used for back trajectory analysis – when adequate, when misleading- possible use of MM5 or diagnostic wind fields for trajectory analysis for some sites • Mesoscale meteorological analysis – trajectory analysis? Needed for sites in complex/coastal setting affected by mesoscale source areas • Triangulation of back trajectories for worst case days to better identify source areas • Regression analysis of back trajectories, aerosol data for quantitative attribution to regions- Trajectory Mass Balance Regression • Refinement of conceptual models

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