Symposium on evidence based decision making

2. Symposium on evidence based decision making The role of Analysis Phase in the development of Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) Themba MohotoStatistics South Africa10 October 2013

3. PRESENTATION CONTENT Observations Integrate Development Planning In-depth Analysis of available data Overview of the Analysis Phase of the IDP process Percentage indicators used in Free State Indicators from Census 2011 as primary source of data Conclusion

4. The following observations are made with regard to some IDPs: The documents cover different financial years. Therefore the contexts and circumstances differ. The IDPs do not provide enough statistical information to substantiate the claims that have been made in the documents. The qualitative AND quantitative analysis of the IDPs is very shallow. Documents simply mention some areas as being problematic without providing context and explanation to justify the claim. Indicators are not standardised nor classified in such a way that relevant outputs can be linked to outcomes. This leads to difficulty in implementing monitoring and evaluation (M&E)) Insufficient data to support the development of plans GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

5. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING • Integrated Development Planning is an approach to planning that involves the entire municipality and its citizens in finding the best solutions to achieve good long-term development. • An Integrated Development Plan is a super plan for an area that gives an overall framework for development. It aims to co-ordinate the work of local and other spheres of government in a coherent plan to improve the quality of life for all the people living in an area.

6. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING • Before starting the planning, an IDP Process Plan must be drawn up. This plan is meant to ensure the proper management of the planning process. • The process undertaken to produce the IDP consists of 5 phases: • PHASE 1: ANALYSIS (Stats SA) • PHASE 2: STRATEGIES • PHASE 3: PROJECTS • PHASE 4: INTEGRATION • PHASE 5: APPROVAL

7. In-depth analysis provides an overall spatial picture of the municipality in terms of the current situation, patterns and trends within the municipal area. Information gathering should be focused on the implications for the development of the municipality area. The information should be systematically unpacked around key sectors: Bio-physical [geology, soil and climate] Socio-economic [people and economy] Built environment [housing, sewerage, transport] IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF DATA

8. . ANALYSIS MATRIX Built Environment Socio/EconomicEnvironment Communities • Land Reform • Tourism • Investment • Economics • Income & Poverty • Crime • Employment • Education • Growth trends • Demography • Energy • Telecoms • Solid Waste • Sewerage • Water Supply • Housing • Transport • Urban Settlement Bio-Physical Environment • Agriculture • Mining • Vegetation • Topography • Hydrology • Climate • Geology & Soils

9. Components of the Matrix

10. OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYSIS PHASE OF THE IDP In-depth analysis of Priority Issues: • Municipality-level Analysis • Economic Analysis • Environmental Analysis • Institutional Analysis • Spatial Analysis • Socio-economic Analysis

11. DETAILS OF ANALYSIS PHASE

12. Development Migration

13. IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT

14. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Age Sex Size Spatial Distribution Movement

15. SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT • Role of the state • Democratic institutions • Participatory planning • Basic needs • Human rights • Urban fiscal base • Access to adequate income POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT EVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC • Sustainable use of renewable resources • Minimal use of non-renewable resources • Appropriate physical planning • Fertility • Migration • Ethnicity

16. PERCENTAGE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS USED IN FREE

17. IDP Indicators used – FS District and Metro

18. IDP Sources used – FS District and Metro

19. Number of Indicators within Municipalities

20. WHAT CENSUS 2011 PROVIDES

21. CATEGORIES OF INDICATORS FROM CENSUS 2011

22. DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES FROM CENSUS 2011

23. OTHER SOURCES OF DATA e.g. schools

24. SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE

25. SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE

26. CONCLUSIONS • There is a challenge in making comparisons between metropolitan and district municipalities. This is because of the sheer size and different levels of complexity between them. • The Analysis Phase is the most critical area in the IDP development • The prerequisite for success in this area is to find relevant data • Stats SA provide primary data but there is also secondary data in the form of administrative data • It is recognised that necessary skills are required in this area • There a number of training programs in place. What is required is alignment and partnerships

27. Government has committed large sums of funds for infrastructure development. Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan in his National Budget Speech 2013 said R827 billion on infrastructure projects over the next three years is to be drawn from the fiscus and state- owned enterprises. How to plan for this properly Andreu (1998) speaks of the TUNNEL EFFECT of contemporary networked infrastructure – the way and infrastructure can traverse space for those using it whilst simultaneously excluding those who inhabit the immediate geographical environment Graham, S (2000) ) “Introduction: cities and infrastructurenetworks”

28. Thank you! THANK YOU