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Economic Outlook December 2013

Economic Outlook December 2013. Economic Policy Division. Real GDP Outlook. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q3 2013. Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale. $14.0. Forecast. $ 12.5. $10.8. $ 7.9. $ 6.8. Comparing Recessions. Personal Consumption Outlook.

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Economic Outlook December 2013

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  1. Economic OutlookDecember 2013 Economic Policy Division

  2. Real GDP Outlook

  3. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q3 2013 Real GDPTrillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale $14.0 Forecast $12.5 $10.8 $7.9 $6.8

  4. Comparing Recessions

  5. Personal Consumption Outlook Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

  6. Real Pay Per Worker

  7. Household Balance Sheet Household Wealth Household Assets

  8. Household Balance Sheet Household Liabilities Consumer Debt Service

  9. Housing Market Trends Home Sales Housing Starts Median Home Prices Housing Affordability Index

  10. Housing Market Trends Housing Inventory Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates

  11. Real Business Investment Outlook Real Private Investment in Equipment

  12. Investment Industrial Production Capacity Utilization

  13. Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Boxboard Production Monthly Leasing and Finance Index Total Rail Carloadings

  14. Energy

  15. Labor Market Total Nonfarm Jobs Household Employment Unemployment Rate November: 7.0% Initial Unemployment Claims

  16. Labor Market Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Duration ofUnemployment Civilian Participation Rate

  17. Employment-Population Ratio Percent

  18. Labor Market

  19. Labor Market

  20. U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

  21. Eurozone Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

  22. Emerging Markets Real GDP Source: Oxford Economics

  23. Interest Rates & Spreads 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 3-Month Treasury Note Yield Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury

  24. Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

  25. Domestic Bank Lending Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks

  26. CBO’s Baseline Deficit (May 2013) Budget Deficit Deficit to GDP

  27. Government Baseline Outside Debt (CBO’s Baseline – May 2013) Debt Debt to GDP

  28. Government Gross Debt (CBO’s Baseline – May 2013) Gross Debt Gross Debt to GDP

  29. Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (May 2013)

  30. Debt Stabilization Scenarios

  31. Government Outlays Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest

  32. Mandatory Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending

  33. FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO

  34. FY 2023 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO

  35. Government Revenues by Source Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes

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