PPD132 /ESS182 Sustainable Development 2 Spring 2010

1. PPD132 /ESS182Sustainable Development 2Spring 2010 Lecture 5: Landscape: Bangladesh Professor Richard Matthew

2. Landscape: Bangladesh • Background: • In 21st C global warming is expected to increase by about 2.5 degrees centigrade in Southeast Asia, which is in line with the global average; by 3.3 degrees centigrade in South Asia and East Asia; and by 3.7 degrees in central Asia, 3.8 degrees in Tibet, and 4.3 degrees in northern Asia, increases well above the global mean.

3. Landscape: Bangladesh • Also in 21st C the dry season (December-February) will become drier in South Asia while the rest of the year will be wetter than in the past. East Asia is expected to experience an increase in precipitation throughout the entire year. In Southeast Asia, there is substantial uncertainty as the overlap across various climate models is less pronounced, but the IPCC projects an overall increase in precipitation with wide regional variance. In Central Asia, models forecast an overall decrease in precipitation, whereas an annual increase is projected for Tibet and northern Asia.

4. Landscape: Bangladesh • Extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia.

5. Landscape: Bangladesh • Driving Forces: • Demographic change • Economic growth • Energy consumption • Food security • Governance capacity • Technological innovation and diffusion

6. Landscape: Bangladesh • Real and Potential Impacts: • Growing health challenges • Increasing population flows • Diminishing governance capacity • Development challenges • Resource scarcity and biodiversity loss • Escalating violence

7. Landscape: Bangladesh • Possible Surprises: • Threshold effects • Non-linear phenomena • Technological breakthroughs • Large scale disasters

8. Landscape: Bangladesh

9. Landscape: Bangladesh

10. Landscape: Bangladesh • Basic Facts: • East Pakistan from 1847-71 • Independent in 1971 • 162 million people • $573 pci • HDI: 146th • Located in the low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra River Delta • Tropical climate • Big challenge: seasonal flooding--Bangladesh has more than 20 million people in its coastal region that will most likely end up under water if sea levels rise on even the modest end of predicted amounts

11. Landscape: Bangladesh

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14. Landscape: Bangladesh

15. Group Projects