The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

1. The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia Charles Yuji Horioka (Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, and National Bureau of Economic Research) and Akiko Terada-Hagiwara (Asian Development Bank) Prepared for presentation at the Federation of ASEAN Economic Associations (FAEA) conference, Manila, Philippines, on November 28, 2012

2. I. INTRODUCTION

3. Introduction (1) Developing Asia has been characterized by high saving rates almost across the board in recent years, which have made possible high levels of domestic investment but have also led to large capital outflows (current account surpluses) (see, for example, the data presented in Kim and Shin (2009)).

4. Introduction (2) To put it another way, the developing economies of Asia have oversaved and underinvested, leading to large current account imbalances (surpluses), as asserted by Ben Bernanke and others. 4

5. Introduction (3) However, some assert that because population aging will occur at a rapid rate in Asia, there will be a sharp decline in saving rates in Asia. If so, the large current account imbalances (surpluses) that Asia is currently showing will go away by themselves without any need for government intervention. Is this assertion correct??? 5

6. The Purpose of This Presentation • To present data on domestic saving rates in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period • To analyze the determinants of domestic saving rates in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period • To project trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-30 period based on our estimation results

7. The Sample of Countries The following 12 Asian countries: People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Pakistan; Philippines; Singapore; Taiwan; Thailand, and Viet Nam These countries comprise 95% of the GDP of developing Asia.

8. II. DATA ON DOMESTIC SAVING RATES IN DEVELOPING ASIA

11. The Level of Saving Rates There have been enormous variations in the level of saving rates, even within developing Asia, during the past 50 years, with saving rates tending to be higher in East Asia and Southeast Asia (with the exception of the Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam) and lower in South Asia.

12. Trends in Saving Rates (1) There have been enormous variations in trends over time in saving rates, even within developing Asia, during the past 50 years, with saving rates showing upward trends in Korea, Malaysia, China, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, downward trends in Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines, and no clear trend in India. 12

13. Trends in Saving Rates (2) In the 1960s, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, and Singapore had among the lowest saving rates (below 10%) with that of Singapore even being negative, but the saving rates of these economies increased sharply in the 1970s except for Pakistan. By the mid-1980s, the domestic saving rates of these economies as well as those in Taipei, China and Malaysia exceeded 30% of GDP. 13

14. III. THE DETERMINANTS OF DOMESTIC SAVING RATES IN DEVELOPING ASIA

15. Previous Studies (1) • There have been many studies that have made use of cross-section or panel cross-country data or of time series data for individual countries to analyze the determinants of national saving starting with Modigliani’s seminal 1970 paper.

16. Previous Studies (2) Higgins, M. (1998), “Demography,National Savings, and International Capital Flows,” International Economic Review, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 343-369. Bosworth, Barry, and Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel (2007), mimeo. (Brookings Institution) Kim, Soyoung, and Lee, Jong-Wha (2008), Japan and the World Economy) Park, Donghyun, and Shin, Kwanho (2009), ADB Economics Working Paper Series, no. 158, Asian Development Bank

17. Previous Studies (3) Previous studies examine the impact of such factors as the age structure of the population, the level and growth rate of income, life expectancy, and the degree of financial sector development on saving rates.

19. Determinants of Saving (1) We analyze the determinants of variations over time and among countries in developing Asia using both random effects and country fixed effects models. Following previous studies, the observations are five-year averages except for the most recent period (1966-70, 1971-75, 1976-80, 1981-85, 1986-90, 1991-95, 1996-2000, and 2001-07). 19

20. Determinants of Saving (2) (Demographic variables) AGE = Aged dependency ratio (population aged 65 and older/population aged 15-64) DEP = Youth dependency ratio (population aged 0-14/population aged 15-64) 20

21. Determinants of Saving (3) (GDP-related variables) LNGDP = The log of real per capita GDP LNGDPSQ = The square of LNGDP CHGDP = The growth rate of real per capita GDP 21

22. Determinants of Saving (4) (Financial variables) CREDIT = The ratio of private credit by deposit money banks and other financial institutions to GDP CREDITSQ = The square of CREDIT RINT = The real interest rate 22

23. Determinants of Saving (5) (Other economic variables) FISC = The ratio of the fiscal balance of the government to GDP SSR = The social security ratio (the ratio of expenditures on social services and pensions to gross national disposable income) Dropped from the final specification because not significant 23

24. Descriptive Statistics

26. Estimation Results

27. Estimation Results without Lags

28. Estimation Results with Lags

29. Estimation Results (1) (Demographic variables) AGE = Aged dependency ratio (negative, as expected, and significant) DEP = Youth dependency ratio (totally insignificant) 29

30. Estimation Results (2) (GDP-related variables) LNGDP = The log of real per capita GDP (negative and significant, as expected) LNGDPSQ = The square of LNGDP (positive and significant) CHGDP = The growth rate of real per capita GDP (positive and significant about half the time) 30

31. Estimation Results (3) (GDP-related variables) (cont’d) Thus, LNGDP has a nonlinear (convex) impact on the domestic saving rate, with its impact being negative at low levels of LNGDP and positive at high levels of LNGDP. Our results imply that, by 1976-80, income levels had become high enough for LNGDP to have a positive impact on the domestic saving rate in nine out of the twelve economies in our sample (with the only exceptions being India, China, and Viet Nam). 31

32. Estimation Results (4) (Financial variables) CREDIT = The ratio of private credit to GDP (positive and significant without lags) CREDITSQ = The square of CREDIT (negative and significant without lags) RINT = The real interest rate (never significant) 32

33. Estimation Results (5) (Financial variables) (cont’d) Thus, CREDIT has a nonlinear (concave) impact on the domestic saving rate, with its impact being positive at low levels of CREDIT and negative at high levels of CREDIT. Our results imply that financial sector development has progressed enough in six of the twelve economies in our sample (China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Singapore; and Taiwan) for the availability of private credit to have a negative impact on the domestic saving rate in these economies. 33

34. Estimation Results (Summary) Domestic saving rates in developing Asia are determined primarily by the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), the level of per capita GDP,and the degree of financial sector development, with the latter two having a non-linear impact thereon (convex and concave, respectively). 34

35. IV. FUTURE TRENDS IN DOMESTIC SAVING RATES IN DEVELOPING ASIA

36. Projections of Future Trends (1) • We project future trends in domestic saving rates for 2011-20 and 2021-30 using: • Our estimation results based on our country fixed effects model • U.N. projections of future population by age • Asian Development Bank projections of future per capita GDP • Our own projections of future trends in financial sector development based on ADB projections in future per capita GDP in conjunction with data on financial sector development broken down by per capita GDP.

37. Projections of Future Trends (2) • The United Nations projects that there will be enormous variations in future demographic trends among the countries of developing Asia, with the demographic bonus ending as early as 2010 in some countries or territories such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand and as late as 2035-40 in some countries such as India and the Philippines. • Not surprisingly, we also find enormous variations in future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia.

38. Future Trends in Saving Rates

39. Future Demographic Trends

40. Future Trends in Individual Countries • Downward trend Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand • Roughly constant China and Vietnam • Upward trend India and Pakistan

41. Future Trends in Developing Asia as a Whole • The domestic saving rate of developing Asia as a whole is projected to remain roughly constant for the next two decades, averaging 26.3% during the 2011-2020 period and 27.2% during the 2021-2030 period, compared to an actual value of 29.4% and a fitted value of 27.4% during the 2001-2007 period.

42. V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

43. Summary (1) • Domestic saving rates in developing Asia have been high and rising but there has been considerable variation from country to country. • Domestic saving rates in developing Asia are determined primarily by the age structure of the population, the level of per capita GDP,and the degree of financial sector development, with the latter two having a non-linear impact thereon.

44. Summary (2) • Domestic saving rates will decrease in the rapidly aging countries of developing Asia over the next two decades because the negative impact of population aging will offset the positive impact of rising income levels. • Domestic saving rates will increase in the less rapidly aging countries of developing Asia because the negative impact of population aging will be offset by the positive impact of rising income levels.

45. Summary (3) • Domestic saving rates in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant over the next two decades. • Shioji and Vu (2011) project that investment rates in developing Asia will show a moderate decline in the next two decades.

46. Summary (4) This implies that current account surpluses in developing Asia may increase even further in the next two decades, exacerbating global imbalances even further. Government policies that discourage saving (stimulate consumption) and stimulate investment would help to reduce current account surpluses in developing Asia and thence global imbalances. 46

47. Thank you very much for your kind attention.