INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS:DIMENSIONS AND PERSPETIVES DR.SHAILENDRA DEOLANKAR DIRECTOR GOVT PRE-IAS TRAINIG CENTRE,AMRAVATI

1. INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS:DIMENSIONS AND PERSPETIVES DR.SHAILENDRA DEOLANKAR DIRECTOR GOVT PRE-IAS TRAINIG CENTRE,AMRAVATI DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

2. INDIA-CHINA:UNCOMMON RIVALS • India-China :Long History of Animosity • Contagious Border • Nuclear Powers • Cut throat competition • Armies and their assertion for survival • Economic Growth :Uncomplimentary • Education, Technology: Widening Gap DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

3. Mapping Differences • Differences in foreign policy orientations • Bifurcation in foreign and domestic policies • Professionalism Vs Idealism(Case Study of 1962) • Individual Vs Institution • Interest Vs ideology(UN,ASEAN) • Policy of aggressive deterrence Vs Policy of restrain and patience • Pragmatism Vs Hypocrisy(Nuclear) DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

4. Indo-China Relations During Cold War Era • Border Problem- • Tibet issue • China Pakistan Nexus DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

5. Indo-China Relations during Post cold war relations • From Estrangement to Engagement • Changing Chinese perspective towards India • Strengthening of Indo-US Relations in the post cold war era • The emergence of India as a nuclear weapons state, • The steady economic growth with an average 8% annual growth rate, India’s increasing ability to influence regional and global events, • Indian’s growing engagements with the regional and global powers, • India’s quest to become a regional super power, • India’s membership to several influential bodies DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

6. Overlapping of interests: Indispensability of Collective efforts • Economics and Trade • Containing Terrorism • Nuclear Energy DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

7. Widening rift between US and China: Implications for India The US-China relations are suffering from strain and stresses in the post cold war era due to following factors • China is superseding US in almost all fields. Experts are predicting that the US is declining power and by mid 21st century it will relegate to third position after India and china. China’s increasing military and economic strength has threatened the vital US security and trade interests in Asia. Ascending china with 1.3billion people, 40%savings rate and $ 2 trillion currency reserve has indeed surprised the world. China has become world’s largest manufacturer. China has strengthened its security system exponentially in last one and half decade. This military strength is core to china’s foreign and strategic policy. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

8. Widening rift between US and China: Implications for India • China’s territorial conflict with almost fifteen countries is one of the important reasons for rising US involvement in Asia. China has border problems with India, Russia, Japan and several south East Asian countries. Prominent among these are china’s conflict with Japan on Senkaku and with south East Asian nations on Spartley. China has declared south china as its core area of strategic interests along with Taiwan, Tibet and Xin Xiang. This Chinese posture has made south East Asian countries insecure. Recently china made several hawkish and aggressive pronouncements over border issues with the south and south East Asian countries which have created shockwaves. With these moves china has antagonized Japan, South Korea and India along with several other south East Asian counties. These countries are now contemplating a countervailing strategy to contain Chinese misadventures. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

9. Widening rift between US and China: Implications for India • These Chinese moves also threatened the US security and trade interests in Asia and reinforced its involvement in maintaining increasing imbalance of power in Asia. There are host of issues which has strained the relations between US and China. These includes Chinese stand on north Korean nuclear programmes, Nuclear nexus between china and Pakistan, Chinese attempt to replace American dollar as a reserve currency of world, china’s totalitarian political system, instances of gross violation of human rights in china, china’s opposition to several US moved resolution at United Nations Security Council among others. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

10. Widening rift between US and China: Implications for India • China is consistently increasing its spending on defense. The Chinese defense budget is on ascendance since last one decade. There is fivefold increase in the Chinese defense budget from 2000 to 2012.In its 12th Five Year Plan, china’s defense expenditure has increased by 12%.Chinse attempts to increase its defense budget has made its neighbors more insecure. • In the backdrop of these issues, few analysts predicts of possibility of rejuvenation of cold war like situation .In order to contain the rapid expansion of Chinese influence in Asia, the US has redesigned its strategic policy in Asia. The new policy emphasizes on strong US presence in Asia. As a part of this new policy, the US is trying to control china’s energy resources transport lanes by attaining military superiority over central, south and south East Asia. The US planning to encircle china by negotiating defense agreements with its neighboring countries and turning them into US satellites. The US arms supply to Taiwan, Joint military exercise with South Korea and India, dispatching aircraft carriers to the yellow sea are some of the recent moves of US which has infuriated china and caused strains in US-China relationship. • The US wishes and encourages political reforms in China. The US while criticizing the totalitarian regime in china and appealing for democratic DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

11. Widening rift between US and China: Implications for India • reforms in its political system. China is considering these US attempts as interference in its domestic affairs. • The instances of human rights violation in china are the centre of US criticism. The US is using international platforms like UNHRC to criticize china and directing several international NGOs to target china for gross violation of human rights. • The ambitious National Missile Defense System programme of US has infuriated china as it considered the programme an US attempt to create anti-china security system and to neutralize china’ Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. The programme aims to provide an umbrella protection cover to the US and its allies both in Europe and Asia from the possible missile attack of China and Russia. The 2004 Defense White Paper of China openly voiced its concerns against these US attempts. The paper states, “the US is realigning and reinforcing its military presence in this region by buttressing military alliances and accelerating deployment of missile defense systems” China is accusing US of violating the provisions of 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which prohibits the member countries to develop anti-missile systems • The china factor has provided opportunity for US and India to intensify cooperation. The US and India’s interests overlap in countering china DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

12. Instability in Asian Security scenario • a US-China rivalry which will increase instability and tension in Asia and may even lead to war. • With China’s increasing economic heft, aggressive growth of sea power and focus on augmenting its naval capabilities, it is possible that at a point the interests of the two powers may clash. • There is a possibility that the US might be drawn into a Sino-Taiwanese conflict or a clash in the South China Sea. • Both India and china are in search of a dominant role in Asia and because • China sees India as the most likely competitor for great power status in Asia. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

13. Rapkin and Thompson (2006) Model of conflict • First, all aspiring powers felt the necessity to take on another powerful state in the global order. • Second, most great powers emerge from greatly troubled neighbourhood; and • Last, they start out as being the predominant power within the neighbourhood. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

14. War is unlikely because • Economic development requires peace • growing economic interdependence, and • presence of nuclear weapons, • cooperation on global forums • growing convergence of interests DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

15. PROBLEM AREAS • China’s increasing preponderance in Asia • Projecting India as a Counterweight to China • China-Pak Nexus • Widening economic and military gap between India and china • Chinese Policy of Encirclement DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

16. Choices before India • To embark on massive military buildup especially qualitative and quantitative expansion of its nuclear weapons • To enter into alliance especially with the US, Russia and Japan • To settle major disputes with china • Not to offend china DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

17. Choices before India • India could simply concede ground to PRC and make significant territorial concessions. This option has the potential to prevent immediate conflict but it may embolden the PRC to seek further concessions. • A second strategy would be to align with the United States. • Third, India could embark on a strategy of internal balancing. Indeed, India has started following this strategy in a rather haphazard fashion. • A fourth, and most likely path that India might pursue involves elements of the first three, involving, intermittent concessions to China, growing alignment with Japan, naval cooperation with the US and steady expansion of its own internal military capabilities. DR.DEOLANKAR-2014

18. THANK YOU DR.SHAILENDRA DEOLANKAR DIRECTOR GOVT PRE-IAS TRAINIG CENTRE,AMRAVATI CONTACT DETAILS CELL- 9702035800, 8550971888 Email- skdeolankar@gmail.com DR.DEOLANKAR-2014