PC Construction and Maintenance Week 12

1. PC Construction and MaintenanceWeek 12 Future Trends in Computer Hardware

2. Mice and Keyboards • USB will probably replace PS/2 connectors as the standard interface for mice and keyboards • There was once speculation of keyboards changing from QWERTY to an alphabetical layout, but this is unlikely to happen now, Although such keyboards are for sale • In the future, other input devices may well replace mice and keyboards altogether • Voice activated input has been around for a few years now, but is inappropriate for some environments

3. Case design • ATX will probably be the most common type of case over the next few years • AT last a good few years, but was found to be inadequate and had several reasons to be replaced with • There seem to be no immediate reasons to replace the ATX specification

4. Processors: The near future • AMD and Intel look set to remain the two biggest players over the next couple of years • Both have invested heavily in fabrication plants for next generation processors • The move to 64-bit, further reductions in feature sizes and increase in number of transistors will occur in the following years

5. AMD roadmap • Integrated 32-bit/64-bit solution, clawhammer (desktop) and sledgehammer (server) • These chips are built on similar architecture to 32-bit AMD chips, but have been extended to 64-bit • In the next couple of years, these chips may well be the fastest available for running the existing 32-bit software base • First generations will be fabricated with a feature size of 1.8 microns, with later chips at 1.3 microns

6. Intel Roadmap • Intel’s 64-bit solution is codenamed the Itanium • This chip was designed 64-bit from scratch, and is likely to be come the most powerful chip for running future 64-bit applications • The chip will run all existing 32-bit software also, but via an emulation mode

7. CPUs – Future Specifications

8. Intel and RAMBUS • The decision of Intel to tie it’s processors and chipsets to a single memory manufacturer has been controversial • It has resulted in great gains for AMD in the processor market • AMD processors can use the cheaper SDRAM • AMD will probably gain a stronger foothold in the memory market until Intel changes its policy

9. The memory question • Intel will start supporting the cheaper SDRAM around end 2002/early 2003, but apparently only at 200MHz • In the meantime, AMD systems will be Migrating from PC133 SDRAM to 266 DDR • RAMBUS already supports far higher speeds, but is very expensive • Overall, memory bandwidth will increase

10. Memory chips – Future Specifications

11. Chipset – Future directions • Like the CPU, feature size of chipset will decrease, allowing for further integration • Currently, Symmetric Multi-Processing (SMP) only supported with Intel processors • New AMD chipset very shortly to be released 760MP will bring SMP support to the Athlon

13. Trends in Motherboard Design • Number of layers on motherboards is set to increase • Each layer is electrically insulated from each layer above and below it • This is needed for increased bus widths, increased functionality • 5-layer boards will be more common, with possibly 6-layer boards hitting the market • Unfortunately, more layers=more cost

14. The processing subsystem – looking further ahead • All components of the processing subsystem will be affected by constant decreases in feature size • Using conventional silicon die technology, we can predict Moores Law is safe for around another 15 years • There is a theoretical limit of feature size, due to the uncertainties of Quantum Physics • It is believed that this limit will be reached in around 2015 • The race is already on to find ways to circumvent this problem

15. Current technology - Alternatives • Work has already been done on making chips that have their transistors stand end-on rather than flat on the sillicon wafer. • This allows 100 times more than normal transistors to be squeezed onto the wafer • Increasing the number of layers in a device is an option, but overheating remains a serious problem

16. Current Technology Alternatives Optical Technology • There have been major advances in optical technology • Optical technology doesn’t suffer from the same theoretical limitations as silicon-based hardware • Optical technology is already used widely in high-end routers and switches • An optical based CPU of any practical value is still a long way off

17. Trends in current hard-disktechnology • Expect a continuation of the increase in capacity and speed as witnessed in the last decade for at least the next few years • Hard drives are running faster, and hotter – some new high-performance drives need a separate cooling system • IDE is gaining a lot of ground on SCSI, very much in the desktop environment, as it is more widely used now

18. Storage in the Future • Conventional hard disks are far from ideal – they are too slow, but getting gradually faster • Capacity is continually increasing, by bringing the heads closer to the platter, and using weaker signals • Hard drives rely on precise moving parts, so are occasionally prone to failure

19. Solid State Storage • Solid State - A future replacement to hard drive storage • Uses existing technology similar to existing RAM chips • In the future, Solid State Storage could employ non-volatile RAM chips • Solid State disks are available today in the form of volatile RAM, that is backed up onto a conventional disk, so data is retained when the power is off • These devices are in use on high-end servers, they are interchangeable with conventional disks

20. Networking • In the LAN environment, networking speeds have jumped from 3MB/s to 10MB/s to 100MB/s and now 1000MB/s is widely available, although still expensive • For the internet itself, advances in fibre optic technology is allowing greater amounts of data to be carried over wide distances than ever before • As the demand for high-bandwidth services increase, this trend is certain to continue • As for connecting homes to the internet, the modem is already inadequate for dealing with data such as video, or large file downloads

21. Video Technology • Video cards are expected to increase in processing capabilities and bandwidth dramatically over the coming years • Both the computer games market and real-time multimedia applications such as VRML are perpetually increasing demand in the video card market • Video cards of today will seem very primitive in a few years time, as the technology is still a long way away of producing true real-world scenarios down to the tiniest detail • The trend of offloading processing further CPU tasks onto the GPU is likely to continue

22. Sound Cards • Sound cards are already down to a single chip, and can produce perfect CD quality audio • Advancements are likely to be seen in technologies such as Dolby DTS (Dolby Theatre System), bringing that sort of hardware down in price • Apart from added extras, sound cards are already at the level which is good enough for most common applications

23. Operating Systems • The next couple of years are likely to be dominated by Windows XP • Finally, Microsoft have unified their Win9X and WinNT product lines, this should avoid much deliberations about which OS is best • XP attempts to take the compatibility of Win9X and the robustness of WinNT and unify them • After XP, Microsoft will eventually release a 64-bit operating system. They have one already well into development

24. Linux in the future • The share of desktops with Linux installed is steadily increasing • Even if everyone owns windows, Linux is still useful, and can be installed alongside windows at no extra cost • Linux has undergone important improvements, both in terms of its interface and at the kernel level • As it is taken more seriously by big business, its robustness and support is projected to increase over the coming years

25. Final Note on Computer Technology • No matter what you have learnt about computers in one year, you need to keep “on the ball” in subsequent years • Even though computer technology moves along at a rapid pace, a knowledge of the fundamentals is essential in order to understand new technology • Future predictions are often very wrong in computing • For example, the computer industry never really foresaw the internet explosion

26. Appendix A – Some Linux/UNIX Commands • cd - Change Directory • ls – List files in a Directory • vi <file> – edit a file • startx – start X-windows manually • halt – shut the computer down • reboot • man <command> - read the manpage of a command • more <file> - read a file • rpm – install/remove software packages

27. Configuring the Linux X-server • The X-server provides the graphical interface to Linux • It is optional, but is recommended for workstation configuration • Sometimes, the install procedure does not configure the X-server correctly • To do it manually, use the xf86config command

28. xf86config • Use this program to select mouse type, keyboard language, and most importantly video modes for the graphical environment • Before starting, you need to know how much video RAM your video card has • This normally appears near the top of the screen at the beginning of the boot process

29. xf86config • After running xf86 config, a file /etc/X11/XF86Config will be created • That file contains all of the X-windows configuration information • It is not recommended to edit that file by hand • To test the X-windows configuration, type startx

30. Removing/adding packages • Type rpm –query –all | more to display all packages installed • Type rpm –i package-name.rpm to install a software package • rpm –e package-name.rpm uninstalls a package from the system