NUI MAYNOOTH Ollscoil na Éireann Má Nuad

1. Adapting to Climate Change in Co. Wexford John Sweeney, Conor Murphy Colin Holman NUI MAYNOOTHOllscoil na Éireann Má Nuad

2. Why is Wexford Sensitive to Climate Change? • Located in the South East it is likely to experience greater rainfall changes than elsewhere in Ireland • Characterised by ‘soft’ coastlines it is vulnerable to increased coastal erosion and coastal flooding due to increases in sea level and potential increases in storm surges • Wexford Agriculture may be the first to experience opportunities for crop and management changes arising from warmer temperatures and reduced summer rainfall. • Reduced summer and autumn river flows and increased winter flows will require active management to protect people, infrastructure and environmental quality

3. For the scientific community the debate over climate change is over Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns *(‘very likely’ = 90%) IPCC (2007)

5. Think-tanks take oil money and use it to fund climate deniers ExxonMobil cash supported concerted campaign to undermine case for man-made warming By Jonathan Owen and Paul Bignell An orchestrated campaign is being waged against climate change science to undermine public acceptance of man-made global warming, environment experts claimed last night. The attack against scientists supportive of the idea of man-made climate change has grown in ferocity since the leak of thousands of documents on the subject from the University of East Anglia (UEA) on the eve of the Copenhagen climate summit last December. Free-market, anti-climate change think-tanks such as the Atlas Economic Research Foundation in the US and the International Policy Network in the UK have received grants totalling hundreds of thousands of pounds from the multinational energy company ExxonMobil. Both organisations have funded international seminars pulling together climate change deniers from across the globe. Stephen McIntyre, who runs climateaudit.org, part of a network of climate change sceptics

6. Climategate Master Criminal Phil Jones Collected $22.6 Million in Grants Excerpts from a post by Michael Shedlock – “It’s now official. Much of the hype about global warming is nothing but a complete scam. The global warming thesis was completely fabricated. “Inquiring minds are reading Hacked: Hadley CRU FOI2009 Files on The Reference Frame by Luboš Motl, a physicist from the Czech Republic. “So far, the most interesting file I found in the “documents” directory is which shows that since 1990, Phil Jones has collected a staggering 13.7 million British pounds ($22.6 million) in grants. “Phil Jones, the main criminal according to this correspondence, has personally confirmed that the website was hacked and that the documents are authentic. “He says that he “can’t remember” what he meant by “hiding the decline.” Well, let me teach him some English. First, dictionaries say that hide means 1. to conceal from sight; prevent from being seen or discovered: Where did she hide her jewels? 2. to obstruct the view of; cover up: The sun was hidden by the clouds. 3. to conceal from knowledge or exposure; keep secret: to hide one’s feelings. 4. to conceal oneself; lie concealed: He hid in the closet.

9. Global Temperature Change since 1980 from GISS data

10. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE IPCC A1FI emissions A2 emissions B2 emissions B1 emissions Global temperature rise, degrees C Start to diverge from mid-century

11. Global and Irish mean temperature

12. Differences in Seasonal Warming

13. Frequency of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ daysat Dublin Airport Hot Days Cold Days ‘Hot’ day = mean temperature > 18oC ‘Cold’ day = mean temperature < 0oC The average annual number of hot days in eastern Ireland has doubled, and cold days have halved over the past 40 years

14. Geographical & Seasonal differences Winters in the north west are getting wetter Summers in the south east are getting drier

16. Warming relative to 1961-90 • Mean January figures are predicted to increase by 1.5oC by mid century with a further increase of 0.5oC-1.0oC by 2075. • By 2050, the extreme south and south west coasts may have a mean January temperature of 8.0oC. By then, winters in Northern Ireland and in the north Midlands will be similar to those presently experienced along the Cork/Kerry coast. • July temperatures will increase by 2.5oC by 2050 and a further increase of 1.0oC by 2075 can be expected. Maximum July temperatures of the order of 22.5oC will prevail generally with areas in the central Midlands experiencing maximum Julytemperatures of 24.5oC.

18. Rainfall relative to 1961-90 Overall increases in precipitation are projected for the winter months of December- February. On average these amount to 11%. The greatest absolute increases are suggested for the north west. Marked decreases in rainfall during the summer and early autumn months across eastern and central Ireland are predicted. Nationally, these are of the order of 25% with decreases of over 40% in some parts of the south-east. Confidence in rainfall changes is however significantly less than with temperature changes

19. Barley yields in South Wexford under present and projected future conditions Non-irrigated, barley yield (t ha-1) nitrogen (kg ha-1) response curves for Johnstown [baseline () and 2055 ()]. t ha-1 Similar yields for baseline and future climates irrespective of higher fertiliser inputs. Drier sites have the lowest yields. Conclusion: Fertiliser input reductions may not decrease yields as climate changes Baseline 2055

20. Potato yields in South Wexford under present and projected future conditions Non-irrigated, potato yield (t ha-1) nitrogen (kg ha-1) response curves for Johnstown Castle [baseline () and 2055 ()]. Marked decline at drier eastern sites. Conclusion: Gains from extra CO2 are negated by drier conditions Baseline t ha-1 2055

21. Irrigated t ha-1 Non-irrigated The nitrogen response with and without irrigation for potato averaged over eight sites nationally where the crops are most commonly grown. [Baseline = black. 2055 = grey.] Marked response to irrigation. Some response also to increased Nitrogen input. Conclusion: Potato yields will fall as summers dry. Irrigation is the best option to redress this, though increased fertiliser inputs may also help.

22. Other Crops and Livestock

23. Adaptation lessons • Summer soil moisture deficits pose the greatest threat for future agricultural production in Co. Wexford. • Where water is available and needed, substantial reductions in fertiliser use can be achieved • Where water is unavailable and needed, yields may be partially maintained by increased fertiliser application

24. Source: Wexford Co. Development Plan 2007

25. Natterjack Toad Roseate Tern Curlew Cowberry Essex Skipper Freshwater pearl Mussel Some vulnerable species in Wexford Salmon