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Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996 – 2006

Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996 – 2006 Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA/AOML). CRW Team: C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS) Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Tyler Christensen (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG)

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Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996 – 2006

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  1. Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996 – 2006 Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Rik Wanninkhof (NOAA/AOML) CRW Team: C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS) Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Tyler Christensen (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) William Skirving (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC) Scott Heron (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC) Al Strong (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG)

  2. Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996 – 2006 • Ocean Acidification 101 • Modeling Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) Sea Surface Carbonate Chemistry • Changes in GCR surface chemistry over the past decade • Caveat's & Gaps

  3. Ocean Acidification pH W CO32- phase Saturation State [ ] [ ] + - 2 2 CO2(aq) Ca CO 3 = CO2 * K sp , phase W > = 1 precipitation W = = 1 equilibrium www.niwascience W < = 1 dissolution Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999 ≈ 48% of anthropogenic CO2 taken up by the ocean

  4. Ocean Acidification W phase Saturation State [ ] [ ] + - 2 2 Ca CO 3 = * K sp , phase W > = 1 precipitation W = = 1 equilibrium W < = 1 dissolution

  5. Project Objectives • Derive changes in Greater Caribbean Region sea surface arg over the past decade (1996-2006) • Requirement: • Estimate pCO2,sw • Estimate Alkalinity • Solve for carbonate system

  6. Carbon Dioxide Partial Pressure (pCO2,sw) NOAA/CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gasses (CCGG) Group flask sampling program. - Underway SST, SSS, pCO2

  7. Total Alkalinity (TA) Alkalinity fields for the GCR used the Lee et al. (2006) equation for (sub)tropical waters.

  8. Daily mean sea level pressure (SLP) NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Monthly sea surface salinity climatologies of NODC (Levitus) World Ocean Atlas Surface TA & pCO2,sw Maps NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis  NODC_WOA94 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/

  9.  > 4.0 % of Region • Seasonal Variability ~ 5 - 10% • Entire GCR ‘Marginal’ in Winter by 2004 • % of Region > 4.0 Declines Sharply

  10. A B D C  > 4.0 % of Region • Seasonal Variability ~ 5 - 10% • Entire GCR ‘Marginal’ in Winter by 2004 • % of Region > 4.0 Declines Sharply

  11. A B D C ~0.15±0.02/decade Kleypas et al., 1999 Annual Mean  below Critical A – 2056 B – 2072 C – 2084 D – 2089 Annual Min  below Critical A – 2022 B – 2042 C – 2062 D – 2085 -0.11±0.02/decade CRITICAL LEVEL

  12. NASA Aquarius; validated HYCOM salinity TA survey of GCR Improved Caribbean Sea Coverage Coupled CO2-system parameters (pCO2,sw, TA, pH, DIC) Improved algorithm parameterization (biological, air-sea gas exchange, mixed layer) Increased VOS coverage in coral reef regions Oceanic & Coastal (Reef) Observations Caveats & Gaps CONCERN: NEED: • Salinity poorly constrained in the GCR • TA algorithm not validated for the GCR • pCO2,sw not adequately parameterized • Application to other regions (e.g. NWHI) • Waters overlying reef systems exhibit lower  and high variability

  13. Summary & Final Remarks • Ocean acidification in the GCR is occurring at rates consistent with current model predictions • Current arg levels are adequate/marginal • However, at current OA rates, parts of the GCR will reach critical levels this century • Coupled satellite & in situ observations can be applied to track OA • Demand for improved CO2-system observations

  14. Thanks

  15. Changing Surface Ocean Chemistry NOAA CMDL CCGG CO2 data at Mauna Loa, HI Derived surface (50 m) values obtained using on-line data available at http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs/ and solved using the Lewis E. and Wallace D.W.R. (1998) Basic program for CO2 system in seawater. ORNL/CDIAC-105, Oak Ridge National Lab

  16. Deriving pCO2,sw Estimates

  17. Deriving pCO2,sw Estimates

  18. Simple pCO2,sw algorithm derived for the GCR usingmultivariant regression analysis (Wanninkhof et al., 2007 ) 2002: pCO2sw =10.18 SST+ 0.5249 lat - 0.2921 lon + 52.19, n = 40204, rms = 5.7 µatm, r2= 0.87 2003: pCO2sw =10.45 SST+ 0.3629 lat - 0.5144 lon + 36.52, n = 60373, rms = 5.9 µatm, r2 =0.92 2004: pCO2sw =10.64 * SST + 0.9745 * lat - 0.3687 * lon + 30.68, n = 86695, rms = 7 µatm, r2 = 0.85 • Drift in algorithm • Hind-cast of last year! • Lat & Lon dependence Wanninkhof et al., 2007 Box plots of residuals between pCO2 determined from remotely sensed SST data and bin-averaged pCO2 data from the Explorer.

  19. Projected Changes in Reef Calcification IPCC IS92a ‘business-as-usual’ • NW Hawaiian Islands calcification • 1765 Adequate • 2000 Marginal • 2100 Low Calcification rates in the tropics may decrease by 30% over the next century After Feely et al. (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al .(2005)

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