Nov. 7, 2013 Mann Library Chat in the Stacks Book Talk

1. Chris Barrett, Wendy Wolford, Sam Crowell and Joanna Upton Nov. 7, 2013 Mann Library Chat in the Stacks Book Talk

2. Background Food systems successes in 1940s-80s enabled dramatic poverty reduction and improved standards of living Today >6(~5) bnpeople have adequate calories (macro- and micro-nutrients), up from only about 2 billion 50 years ago. Successes enabled population growth, urbanization, income growth and poverty reduction over the “Long Peace” of the late 20th century … and induced a dangerous complacency.

3. Background Complacency led to underinvestment. Food output growth slowed relative to demand growth. Result: higher food prices and spikes. OECD/IFPRI/FAO all forecast food prices 5-20% higher than 2012 levels for the next decade as demand growth continues to outpace supply expansion worldwide.

4. Social unrest High Food Prices Associated w/ Social Unrest Food Prices and Food Riots (Death Tolls) High food prices associated w/ social unrest/ food riots But omitted factors matter a lot in this association. And most countries that suffer high food prices don’t experience any violence. Source: Lagi et al. (2011) Food security worries can spark public protest when mixed with a sense of broader injustices.

5. Social unrest High Food Prices Also Spark Resource Grabs • High food prices also spur – and reflect –demand for land, water, genetic material, etc. • ‘Land grabs’ can help sow domestic discontent • Ex: Madagascar 2008/9 • Resource grabs can feed other international tensions, too: • Marine fisheries • Water • ‘Gene grabs’/IP anti-commons

6. An unclear relationship The food security-sociopolitical stability relationship remains poorly understood and oversimplified. Inferential challenge: Correlated common drivers (e.g., climate) make it difficult to tease out causal links. Sociopolitical crisis is clearly a cause of food insecurity (e.g., Somalia, DRC)… but it increasingly seems a consequence as well. Don’t really need more causes to seek peace. But do need extra push for food security investments. Especially important b/c key food security stressors include gov’t, firm and donor policy responses intended to fosterfood security, but that also have important, adverse spillover effects.

7. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: Food price spikes and urban unrest: Spontaneous(largely-urban) sociopolitical instability due to food price shocks, with urban food consumers the primary agitators. But price shocks largely proximate, not root, causes of sociopolitical unrest. Sources are pre-existing grievances and lack of adequate social safety nets or government policies to buffer the effects of market shocks. High prices can unite/mobilize the already-angry vs. the state or ethnic minorities (e.g., food traders) perceived to hold/exercise power unjustly. Food plays more a symbolic/subjective than a substantive role. Less about the economic impacts on the poor, than the psycho-social ones of disrupting trust among the middle class.

8. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: • Intensified competition for rural resources: Slower-evolving, structural pressures due to (largely rural) intra- and inter-state resource competition over land, water, fisheries, labor, capital and the byproducts of such competition (e.g., chaotic internal migration, outbreaks of zoonoses, etc). • Farmers/farm workers the main agitators, although international NGOs/ firms are important external agents (e.g., over GMOs, “land grabs”, etc.). • Typically unrest about distributional questions and power. More likely to mutate into social and/or guerilla movements than is urban unrest from price shocks. Exploitable by pre-existing opposition movements.

9. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: Improving technologies and technical efficiency: Historically, technical change has permitted supply expansion without intensified competition for resources. Growing disparities in rates of technical change in agriculture. Investment is least where yield gaps and anticipated demand growth are greatest. Dramatic changes in the competitive landscape – especially as intellectual property regimes increasingly impede rather than foster progress. Controversial (GM) technologies create new areas of contestation Technological change is no panacea. But there seem few options for progress without re-acceleration of agricultural technological change, especially in Africa and Asia.

10. 4 key pathways There are 4 main pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: Policy interventions to temporarily augment supply: States address pressures through policies that reallocate food across time (buffer stock releases), space (trade barriers), or people (social protection). These often have unintended, beggar-thy-neighbor consequences. None of these policies increases food supply; they merely reallocate it. Commonly exports the food security stress to other (sub)populations. Breed dangerous complacency by suggesting that quick fixes can substitute for longer-term, structural investments to enable supply growth to keep pace with demand expansion. Need social protection closely coupled with productivity growth.

11. Food or consequences The reasonable hypothesis that food insecurity can spark sociopolitical unrest adds a key reason to redouble efforts to stimulate ag productivity growth coupled with effective social protection measures.But must focus on Africa and Asia!

12. New Book on Topic 18 chapters by leading international experts Overview (Barrett) Global food economy (Rosegrant et al) Climate (Cane & Lee) Thematic chapters: Land (Deininger) Freshwater resources (Lall) Marine resources (McClanahan et al.) Crop techs (McCouch & Crowell) Livestock techs (McDermott et al.) Labor migration (McLeman) Trade (Anderson) Humanitarian assistance (Maxwell) Geographic chapters: Latin America (Wolford & Nehring) Sub-Saharan Africa (Barrett & Upton) M.East / N.Africa (Lybbert&Morgan) W.Asia/EC Europe (Swinnen&Herck) South Asia (Agrawal) China (Christiaensen) East Asia (Timmer)

13. Crop technologies In the context of food security… Fiber Food Agronomics Computers + Feed Fuel Imaging...etc! DNA What is a “crop technology” ?

14. Crop technologies Agronomic technologies Management of soil, water, planting, spacing, fertilization, weed management Biological(genetic) technologies Classical breeding, hybrid breeding, genomics-assisted breeding, genetic engineering **2.3 billion people depend on income derived from small farms (<2 ha) Crop technologies that enhance small farm productivity—most likely to help

15. Crop technologies ~100 yrs Modern Variety ~10,000 yrs Wild Landrace Very diverse Heterogeneous Uniform Green Revolution

16. Crop technologies Post-Green Revolution 90% of global agricultural research is conducted in developed countries Private sector accounts for >1/2 of these R&D expenditures Focus has shifted away from crops that are important in the developing world, towards proprietary technologies Pardey et al., 2006

17. Crop technologies Agronomic technologies Management of soil, water, planting, spacing, fertilization, weed management Genetic (biological) technologies Classical breeding, hybrid breeding, genomics-assisted breeding, genetic engineering Intellectual Property (IP) Protection Plant Variety Protection (PVP), Utility Patents, sui generis systems

18. Crop technologies Genetic engineering (biotechnology) Introduces new traits quickly and efficiently. Genetic modification (GM) uses Agrobacterium tumefaciens, a naturally occurring bacteria that randomly insert DNA (genes) into plant chromosomes. Subject to utility patents without disclosure of the technology used to generate the variety. Since 1996 global production increased 94-fold, from 1.7M to 160M ha. Fastest adoption of crop technology in history. 99% of GM crops are soybean, maize, cotton and canola with 2 traits: Insect resistance (Bt) Herbicide resistance (Roundup Ready) 90% of farmers (16.7M) in developing world on < 2ha land. 7M farmers in China grow Btcotton on ~0.5 ha 7M farmers in India grow Btcotton on ~1.5 ha

19. Latin America The 2007 – 2008 Price Increases hit Latin America hard Source: Cuesta and Jaramillo 2009: 7

20. Latin America Haitian rioters block a street in downtown Port au Prince while Brazilian UN peacekeepers look on. Photo: KenaBetancur Source: The Guardian, April 9 2008 Protesters march through Port-au-Prince in April 2008 to demand the government to lower the price of basic commodities. Photo by Nick Whalen-IPS Source: http-//www.ipsnews.net/2009/01/haiti-new-peasant-alliance-demands-action-on-food-crisis/

21. Latin America Key Characteristics – The Context of the Crisis Strong agricultural sector but bi-modal with a highly productive agro-industrial sector geared towards export and a “peasant” sector on small plots producing for subsistence and local markets Source: World Bank's Data Bank: World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance, 2012. Source: Martinez et al 2009: 36

22. Latin America Key Arguments from Case Studies • Disaggregate “conflict” • Spontaneous protests around consumption vs. sustained mobilization around production • Food protests or “riots” are not just about food:situate in longer, context-specific moral economies • Social mobilization has improved food security in Latin America: Mobilization, protest and instability are often threats – particularly for those who approve of the status quo

23. Latin America Social Mobilization and Food Security Brazil: Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) Ecuador:Pueblo Kayambi, Canasta Comunitaria, CONAIE Mexico: Zapatista Movement, National Confederation of Indigenous Peoples, Bolivia:Cocaleros Peru:CONACAMI A host of national initiatives, including cash transfer programs, school food programs, nationalized grocery stores

24. Latin America Social Mobilization and Food Security

25. Latin America Membership in La Via Campesina Source: www.viacampesina.org

26. Latin America The Movement of Rural Landless Workers - Brazil

27. Latin America Fome Zero – State, Civil Society and Market - Brazil

28. Latin America Features of the Brazilian Path • Extensive R&D geared towards private sector development of large-scale agribusiness chains • Land distribution and promotion of small-holder welfare • Implementation of the largest CCT in Latin America’s history • Sustained social mobilization

29. Sub-Saharan Africa A composite vulnerability map of: Climate-related hazard exposure, Population density, Household and community resilience, and Governance and violence. Christopher B. Barrett and Joanna B. Upton Source: Kaiba White (2011) Data sources: World Bank, World Health Organization, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UNICEF, UN Environment Programme/GRID-Europe, US Geological Survey, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, World Meteorological Organization, Polity IV Project, KOF Index of Globalization, World Development Indicators, Demographic and Health Surveys, Landscan.

30. Sub-Saharan Africa • Motivation • Sub-Saharan Africa bears an unfortunate triple distinction among world regions, with the highest incidence of: • Undernourishment, ultra-poverty, and conflict-related deaths • Leads to challenges across dimensions of food insecurity • Availability • Access (20% < $0.62/day; 65% of world’s ultra-poor) • Extreme diversity (between regions & countries) => highly variable problems and no one-size-fits-all solution • Key opportunities are also key areas for risk and potential conflict

31. Sub-Saharan Africa • Sub-Saharan Africa’s characteristics create special challenges for all four pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: • Food price spikes and urban unrest • “Youth bulge” in the growing population (projected to reach 1.1 billion by 2020…average age of 20) • Urbanization • …largely jobless, young, increasingly educated and urban population (paradox of the disaffected) • 2. Intensified competition for rural resources • Opportunity in that SS Africa is land and water abundant (22% of arable land in use; 13% of irrigable land irrigated) • However, demand pressures are on the rise, and • Increasing trends toward land investments (“land grabs”)…which may strike neo-colonial chords and lead to unrest

32. Sub-Saharan Africa • Sub-Saharan Africa’s characteristics create special challenges for all four pathways by which food security might impact sociopolitical stability: • 3. Improving technologies and technical efficiencies • Low productivity (yield gap) and growing working age population means huge opportunities • However, limited by technical capacity, extreme poverty (problems with up-take), and political controversy • 4. Policy intervention to temporarily augment supply • Common practice to regulate prices and/or distribute resources (food), which always has distributional implications • Governing capacity weak vis-à-vis both social protection and productivity growth

33. Sub-Saharan Africa • Looking forward…to fraught opportunities • Demand Side: • Incidence of poverty on the decline (—though still the largest in the world, and uneven between countries and regions) • Population growth + rapid urbanization => increasing reliance on poor infrastructure • Communication infrastructure improving . . . • Supply Side: • Land and water abundance • Investments could be an opportunity…under certain (unlikely?) conditions • Productivity gap • Four potential pathways: irrigation, soil fertility management, livestock production, GMOs • Demographic trends =>increased labor and technical innovation?

34. Sub-Saharan Africa • Looking forward…to fraught opportunities • Total Factor Productivity growth is key • Minimize the problem of the ‘food price dilemma’; help producers and consumers simultaneously • Government capacity, particularly in: • Prioritizing productivity growth • Creating opportunities for the young working-aged population • Managing foreign investment (transparency, distributional concerns, production priorities) • Social protection and safety nets for the ultra-poor, in particular the disaffected

35. Thank you for your time and interest