1 / 25

Emissions in the WRAP Region

Emissions in the WRAP Region. Four Corners Air Quality Task Force: Cumulative Effects Work Group Call May 1, 2006 Tom Moore 970-491-8837 or mooret@cira.colostate.edu. Presentation Objectives. Results for emissions data collection and analysis to date Workshop series for more information:

zudora
Download Presentation

Emissions in the WRAP Region

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Emissions in the WRAP Region Four Corners Air Quality Task Force: Cumulative Effects Work Group Call May 1, 2006 Tom Moore 970-491-8837 or mooret@cira.colostate.edu

  2. Presentation Objectives • Results for emissions data collection and analysis to date • Workshop series for more information: • January 10-11: Reasonable Progress/SOx/NOx Workshop: http://wrapair.org/cal/calendar.php?op=view&id=458 • May 23-24: Fire, Carbon, & Dust Workshop: http://wrapair.org/cal/calendar.php?op=view&id=505 • Additional workshops in 2006-07

  3. Issues to Consider Emissions • What and where are the contributing emissions? • Natural vs. anthropogenic • Controllable vs. uncontrollable • What and where are the changes in emissions by source category: 2002 to 2018? • What have we achieved in terms of completeness and representativeness of the emissions inventories? • How are we doing on tribal emissions inventories? • What are the limitations/problems/remaining challenges with the emissions? • What and where are the problems?

  4. Scope of regional technical effort • Analyze significant regional components of haze • Large, regionally ubiquitous sources and impacts • Provide consistent, comparable, and reproducible regional analyses • Interstate consultation regarding the emissions contributions of states and tribes to each Class I area • Assessment of the visibility improvement from adopted and proposed control strategies at each Class I area within and downwind of the WRAP region

  5. Scope of regional technical effort, cont. • Status to date • Completed Geographic Source Attribution project • Completed 2000-04 baseline monitoring • Completed review and QA of state and tribally-reported 2002 emissions data for all source categories • Completed 2018 base case emissions data – projection methods for WRAP region have received broad review • Developing Technical Support System to store, access, use, and display data • Plan for next year • Modeling simulations to assess control strategies • Combined analyses of emissions, monitoring, and modeling data to provide “Weight of Evidence” results for each Class I area • Document findings

  6. Where are the Mandatory Federal Class I areas?

  7. Progress on Emissions Inventories • There are standard methods for some source categories – WRAP has improved/QAed • Point, area, on- and off-road mobile, biogenics • First regional EI for oil and gas production and distribution • Area sources are generally poorly resolved • Inventory methods have been developed by WRAP for some categories. Have received broad review and application • Fire • Ammonia • Windblown dust • Commercial marine and off-shore shipping • More than 25 tribes now have EIs

  8. - Tribes with EI data prepared and released as of December 6, 2005

  9. Mobile Emissions

  10. Mobile Emissions

  11. Dust, Ammonia, Biogenics • Dust emissions breakdown • Windblown assumed constant into future • Projected growth and control for road dust, agricultural, construction, stationary sources • Comprehensive ammonia inventory • “Fugitive” ammonia emissions estimated for first time • All categories poorly resolved, to be held constant 2002 to 2018 • Biogenics – natural emissions from plant life – held constant

  12. All Dust Emissions Sources Combined

  13. Dust Emissions by Source Category

  14. WRAP Region: 2002 Total = 365,000 and 2018 Total = 540,000

  15. Port Activity and Off-Shore Commercial Marine Shipping

  16. 2002 to 2018 % Change in Coastal States’ Mobile Emissions

  17. WRAP-up: Emissions Results What do we know? • Emissions inventories completed for: • 2002 Actual Emissions • 2000-04 Baseline Period for Fire and CAMD EGUs • 2018 Base Case (rules on the books, growth and control) • 2002 to 2018 changes estimated • Change for point and area sources varies up and down by state • Mobile down noticeably, commercial marine shipping is exception • Fire scenario forecasts developed, variable by year and location • Dust and other sources generally held constant, unless change in future estimates can be supported • Oil and gas emissions data – first try, will continue to improve • Tribal data becoming more complete • Complete and comprehensive emissions data available

  18. WRAP Air Quality Modeling Regions High resolution 12 km nested grid for the WRAP region Coarser 36 km North American grid

More Related