Trends in Higher Education: Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally

1. Trends in Higher Education:Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak Coconino Community CollegeStrategic Planning Retreat September 26, 2007

2. Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education • The World is Flat….T. Friedman • Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz • The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida • The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore • Etc….

3. 60 25 to 34 50 45 to 54 40 30 20 10 0 Italy Japan Spain Korea Poland Greece Ireland Iceland Austria France Mexico Finland Turkey Canada Norway Sweden Belgium Portugal Germany Hungary Australia Denmark Switzerland Netherlands Luxembourg New Zealand United States Slovak Republic Czech Republic United Kingdom Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004

4. The Aging U.S. Workforce Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5. Growth in Demand - Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education

6. In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders... • 66 graduate from high school • 31 enter college • 20 are still enrolled by sophomore year • 15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years NCHEMS Information Center, 2002

7. Education Required Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business

8. Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges dowell—into knowledge workers.

9. What are knowledge workers? … those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce. Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally:Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006

10. 60% 48.7% 46.0% 45.7% 44.6% 44.2% 44.0% 43.7% 43.7% 43.3% 42.8% 42.4% 45% 41.7% 41.3% 40.7% 40.4% 40.1% 38.9% 38.8% 38.6% 38.4% 37.4% 37.4% 37.4% 37.3% 37.2% 37.1% 37.0% 36.6% 36.4% 36.1% 36.0% 35.9% 35.8% 35.3% 33.9% 33.7% 33.6% 33.6% 33.2% 33.2% 33.0% 31.8% 31.2% 30.8% 29.8% 29.0% 28.6% 28.5% 30% 26.8% 26.5% 25.0% 15% 0% Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Alaska Illinois Kansas Hawaii Florida Oregon Indiana Nevada Georgia Arizona Virginia Vermont Montana Missouri Alabama Arkansas Colorado Nebraska Delaware Michigan Maryland Kentucky Louisiana Wyoming California Oklahoma Tennessee New York Wisconsin Minnesota Mississippi New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Dakota West Virginia Massachusetts North Carolina South Carolina New Hampshire Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005 Source: 2005 American Community Survey

11. Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment - U.S. Census, 2006

12. ARIZONA TRENDS: • College in AZ has become less affordable • Average Family Net College % • Income Cost Needed • $12,000 $7127 59% • $26,912 $7608 28% • $42,946 $8013 19%

13. Coconino County has a relatively low income level - U.S. Census, 2006

14. 14,000 12,354 12,000 11,342 9,666 10,000 9,150 8,602 7,890 7,712 7,641 7,445 8,000 7,240 6,995 6,851 6,768 6,350 6,263 6,169 6,136 6,097 5,982 5,969 5,925 5,911 5,906 5,873 5,844 5,833 5,710 5,687 5,514 5,495 6,000 5,384 5,287 5,282 5,280 5,200 4,934 4,902 4,874 4,854 4,849 4,702 4,691 4,561 4,544 4,319 4,221 4,196 3,873 4,000 3,360 3,296 3,019 2,000 0 Utah Ohio Iowa Illinois Texas Idaho Maine Nation Virginia Hawaii Indiana Alaska Florida Arizona Oregon Kansas Georgia Missouri Nevada Michigan Vermont Alabama Montana California Louisiana Wyoming Maryland Arkansas Delaware Kentucky Colorado Wisconsin Minnesota Nebraska Mississippi Tennessee Oklahoma Washington New York Pennsylvania Connecticut New Jersey West Virginia Rhode Island New Mexico South Dakota North Dakota South Carolina Massachusetts North Carolina New Hampshire State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005 Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers

16. STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004: • 217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher • Education Enrollments. • Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans.

17. CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate -

18. An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since 2002. The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a 70.4 percent increase. • If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years. Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006

19. Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid • Through 2005-2006 (last year for comparative data) -- Need-based aid: • $2.8 million (43rd nationally) • 23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally) • $8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally) • 14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region • WICHE average: $170 • National average: $415 • Arizonans rely more heavily on loans: • Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762 • Average loan amount in top states – $2,619 • State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment. • Arizona/Federal Investment: 0% • Top States/Federal Investment: 89% Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2006-07, National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006,2006, NCPPHE

20. To Summarize….. • Increased globalization of workforce • Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce • Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in Hispanic h. s. grad #s • Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd • Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County • CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income • AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to community colleges • AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely heavily on loans In Addition….. • National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability & Affordability

21. So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges? • How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program? competitively market? competitively recruit? • How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive? • W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond? • W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US (25-34 yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond? • W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond? • How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened? • Others?????