Understanding education in South Africa Inequality, outcomes and resources

1. Understanding education in South Africa Inequality, outcomes and resources Nic Spaull Equal Education (UCT) 5 March 2013

2. Outline • Overview of theoretical links between schooling and the labour market • What does the data say? • Are resources the main constraint? • Conclusions & Recommendations

3. Not all schools are born equal ? Pretoria Boys High School SA public schools?

4. Inequality - SA Why has there been so little progress in equalizing the income distribution in SA? Murray Leibbrandt & Ingrid Woolard & Arden Finn & Jonathan Argent, 2010. "Trends in South African Income Distribution and Poverty since the Fall of Apartheid," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.

5. Education and inequality? • IQ • Motivation • Social networks • Discrimination

6. Does schooling mitigate or propagate inequality?

7. LOW ability/motivation HIGH ability/motivation High SES Low SES Society stratified on wealth/SES Society stratified on ability/motivation Fair system where labor market outcomes are largely a function of ability, motivation, talent etc.

8. LOW ability/motivation HIGH ability/motivation High SES Low SES Society stratified on wealth/SES Society stratified on wealth/SES UNfair system where labor market outcomes are largely a function of parental wealth & education

9. Labour Market • University/FET • Type of institution (FET or University) • Quality of institution • Type of qualification(diploma, degree etc.) • Field of study (Engineering, Arts etc.) • High productivity jobs and incomes (17%) • Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs • Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills • Historically mainly white High quality secondaryschool Unequal society High SES background +ECD High quality primary school Minority (20%) Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition • Vocational training • Affirmative action • Big demand for good schools despite fees • Some scholarships/bursaries Majority (80%) Quality Type Attainment Low quality secondary school • Low productivity jobs & incomes • Often manual or low skill jobs • Limited or low quality education • Minimum wage can exceed productivity Low SES background Low quality primary school cf. Servaas van der Berg – QLFS 2011

10. OK that’s the theory but what does the data say?NB: “Without data you are just another person with an opinion” - Schleicher

11. The impact of SES on reading/maths(SACMEQ III – 2007 Gr 6) • Almost 40% of SA student reading achievement can be explained by socioeconomic status (31 assets, books, parental education) alone. • In South Africa socioeconomic status largely determines outcomes (with a very small number of exceptions – see newspapers for examples) • Indication of wasted human capital potential (see Schleicher, 2009) Spaull, 2013

12. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Taylor, 2011 (based on NSES)

13. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase These grade 4 children cannot read Howie & van Staden (2012)

14. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase

15. Insurmountable learning deficits Gradients of achievement in the EASTERN Cape and in Quintile 5 (National) NB: Key assumption, 0.5 SD of national learning achievement is equivalent to one grade level of learning -agreement from TIMSS/PIRLS Spaull, 2013 Spaull 2013

16. Insurmountable learning deficits Gradients of achievement in the WESTERN Cape and in Quintile 5 (National) NB: WC has relatively high % of Q5 schools thus it should be more convergent by construction. Spaull, 2013 Spaull 2013

17. What are the root causes of low and unequal achievement? Matric pass rate Subject choice Throughput No. endorsements Media sees only this MATRIC Quality? Pre-MATRIC 50% dropout Low curric coverage Low accountability Weak culture of T&L Vested interests Low time-on-task No early cognitive stimulation Low quality teachers HUGE learning deficits…

18. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Matric • Grade 12 – Various • Roughly half the cohort ____________________________________ Underperformance • Of 100 students that enroll in grade 1 approximately 50 will make it to matric, 40 will pass and 12 will qualify for university Inequality • Subject combinations differ between rich and poor – differential access to higher education • Maths / Maths-lit case in point • Are more students taking maths literacy because THEY cannot do pure-maths, or because their TEACHERS cannot teach pure-maths?

19. Are more resources the answer?

20. Resources? Does this make sense? What are the ways that library-access improves reading/maths performance?

21. Resources Does this make sense? What are the ways that sports ground access improves reading/maths performance?

22. Does this make sense? What are the ways that website access improves reading/maths performance?

24. Correlation is not causation • Given that apartheid discriminated along racial, linguistic and spatial dimensions, it is unsurprising that these are all correlated. • Cannot draw causal inference from bivariate statistics (need multivariate analysis) • Serious equalization of public expenditure on education yet almost no change in outcomes since the transition? • Yes there is significant pvt spending at the top, but isolating the lack of resources is an easy target but NOT the most important one. Looking at things like teacher content knowledge, curriculum coverage, accountability and capacity  more difficult but more important. • For example, teacher content knowledge….

25. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Gr 6 Teacher Content Knowledge - see McKay & Spaull (2013)

26. Teacher knowledgeSACMEQ III (2007)  401/498 Gr6 Mathematics teachers Correct answer (7km): 38%of Gr 6 Maths teachers 7 2 education systems

27. Accountability “Without an explicit chain of accountability, student outcomes cannot improve on a national level. While it is indisputable that the government should provide every school with the basic infrastructure required (water, sanitation, buildings, textbooks etc.) and support teachers and principals, one cannot absolve schools of responsibility for dysmal performance because they do not have libraries or science laboratories. Under the right circumstances these do improve learning outcomes, and ultimately they should be provided to all schools. However, libraries and laboratories are not a prerequisite for basic school functionality and adequate learning outcomes – as many excellent under-resourced schools prove. How is it possible that two equally poor schools with socioeconomically similar students perform at vastly different levels – one dysfunctional, the other excellent? Commenting on the impact of the influential “Coleman Report” in America, Coleman explains that one of the main impacts of the report was to shift the policy-consensus in the United States towards educational outcomes rather than educational inputs (see below) – something which is also needed in South Africa. “The long range impact of the report will probably be to strengthen the move toward evaluating schools in terms of their results rather than their inputs...School superintendents and educators have been reluctant to measure schools by how well the students do. Whether or not they admit it, they feel that the primary variation in student performance is not what the schools are doing but what the child comes to school with” (Coleman, 1972, p. 13). Excerpt from Spaull 2013 CDE report “South Africa’s Education Crisis”

28. Conclusions & Implications The 2 binding constraints to progress in education South Africa are Lack of accountability Lack of capacity At all levels: school/district/province/national. Lack of capacity means that teachers/administrators/managers lack the ability/skills to fulfill their job descriptions Lack of accountability means that there are no tangible consequences for nonperformance Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege

29. Use your time at UCT wisely

30. Further reading • www.nicspaull.com/research • CDE 2013 report on education “South Africa’s Education Crisis” (end of March) • Low Quality as a Poverty Trap report http://resep.sun.ac.za/index.php/projects/ ) • Improving Education Quality in South Africa (report to the NPC for the NDP) http://resep.sun.ac.za/index.php/projects/ )

31. Thanks. Comments & questions… Website: nicspaull.com/research Email: nicholasspaull@gmail.com Twitter: @NicSpaull

32. Bimodality – indisputable fact PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Matric… by Wealth / Language / Location / Dept…

33. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase SACMEQ 2007 • Grade 6 – Numeracy and literacy • 392 schools, 9071 students ____________________________________ Underperformance • 27% of students functionally illiterate • SA performs worse than many low-income African countries (Tanzania, Kenya, Swaziland, Zimbabwe) • No improvement between SACMEQ II (2000) and SACMEQ III (2007) • Although majority (98%) of students are enrolled, sometimes almost no learning Inequality • Large differences between quintiles (see table later) • Large inequalities in maths teacher content knowledge Gr 6 Teacher Content Knowledge - see McKay & Spaull (2013)

34. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase TIMSS 2011 • Grade 9 – Maths and science • 285 schools, 11969 students ____________________________________ Underperformance • 76% of Gr9 students had not acquired a basic understanding about whole numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs (i.e. had not reached low int. benchmark) • Avg. Gr 9 SA student is 2yrs (2.8yrs) behind the average Gr8 student from a middle income country in maths (science) • Contrary to popular belief, even South Africa’s “top” schools do not perform well by international standards… Inequality • Avg Q1/Q2 Gr9 student is 3yrs (4yrs) worth of learning behind the average Q5 student in maths (science) • Avg Gr 9 student in ECA is 2yrs worth of learning behind avg Gr9 student in GAU *Data now available for download

35. Poverty & Privilege paper • If there are indeed two education systems in SA and not one – as the background research seems to suggest - where/how do we draw the line between one and the other?

36. See Taylor (2012) Matric • More students making it to grade 10 but not more making it to matric • Partially due to less repetition at lower grades • LARGE differences in the ability of provinces to “convert” grade 1 enrolments into matric passes • Why are more students taking mathsliteracy? The ratio of grade 2 enrolments ten years prior to matric to matric passes by province See Taylor (2012)

37. SACMEQ III (Spaull & Taylor, 2012) Literacy Numeracy

38. Background: Data SACMEQ • Southern and Eastern African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality • 14 participating countries • SACMEQ II (2000), SACMEQ III (2007) • Background survey • Testing : • Gr 6 Numeracy • Gr 6 Literacy • HIV/AIDS Health knowledge SACMEQ III: South Africa • 9071 Grade 6 students • 1163 Grade 6 teachers • 392 primary schools • See SACMEQ website for research

39. Two school systems not one? Socioeconomic Status • Grade 6 [2007] • Data: SACMEQ • (Spaull, 2011)

40. Corroborating evidence? • Latest data? ANA? • Teacher knowledge • Teacher absenteeism • Textbook access • Literacy/numeracy rates • Grade repetition • Parental education • Homework frequency

41.  In most government reports outcomes and inputs are not usually reported by quintile, only national averages 

42. Implications for reporting and modeling??

43. Do the ends justify the means? Government reporting – means are misleading

44. Teacher knowledge...  Q6: 53% correct (D) Q9: 24% correct (C) English Q9: 57% correct (D)

45. Modelling student performance • Two data-generating processes. Little reason to believe there is the same underlying DGP • Split samples • Wealthiest 25% of schools • Poorest 75% of schools • Which coefficients are large & significant across the two regressions?

46. 11/29 variables common

47. 5/27 variables common

48. All of these things have serious ramifications for the labour market and thus income inequality…

49. Percentage of youth in employment by highest educational attainment (Van Broekhuizen, 2013) • Since 2007 more youth have matric • Employment rates of youth are stagnant at 20% since 1995 • For 18-24yr matric-only or less-than-matric doesn’t make much of a difference • Demand-Supply interaction between labour market and schooling Composition of 18 - 24-year-olds by highest level of education completed (Van Broekhuizen, 2013)

50. Percentage of unemployed 18-24-yr olds that have never worked (Van Broekhuizen, 2013) • In 2011 more than 70% of youth in unemployment had never been employed before • Durations of youth unemployment have been increasing since 1995 • Proportion of job-seeking youth unemployed for more than 3 years has increased from 42% in 2008 to 50% in 2011 Percentage of unemployed 18-24-year-olds by duration of unemployment (Van Broekhuizen, 2013)