Consolidation Plan for Today

1. Consolidation Plan for Today • Distinguish among definitions of consolidation. • Understand what consolidation does not imply. • Survey authors’ claims on tasks/ areas of consolidation in new democracies. • Critically assess consolidation concept.

2. Consolidation (Huntington): “Two-turnover test”: two elections occur with peaceful changes of parties in power.

3. Consolidation (Diamond): Must use non-circular definition (separate from stability). Process of achieving broad regime legitimation among elites and masses. Indicated when: At mass level indicated 70-75% of citizens believe democracy best system and < 15% reject democracy as desirable system.

4. Russian lack of democratic legitimacy polling data (Levada Centre, Moscow)

5. What consolidation is not about (Linz & Stepan) • Consolidation doesn’t mean regime won’t become unconsolidated at some point. • Quality of democracy different from consolidation and different kinds of democracy possible.

6. Necessary Developments to Promote Consolidation(Linz & Stepan, Diamond)

7. Arenas of regime that must develop for consolidation(Linz & Stepan) • Civil society • Political society • Rule of law • State bureaucracy • Economic society

8. Tasks to Foster Consolidation(Diamond) • Democratic deepening. • Political institutionalization. • Regime performance.

9. Democratic Deepening • Making formal institutions more liberal, accountable, representative, accessible. • No illiberal, electoral democracies during third wave have achieved consolidation. • E.g. Russia, Venezuela: deconsolidation.

10. Political Institutionalization • Movement to routinized, predictable patterns of political behavior around common rules and procedures. • 3 types of institutions involved: • State apparatus. • Institutions of democratic representation and governance. • Structures that ensure rule of law.

11. Regime PerformanceEconomic Performance • Long record of economic performance can build “reservoir of legitimacy” to weather crises. • Cannot be widespread perception that few are benefiting disproportionately. • E.g. Mexico, Russia, South Africa. • Economic hardship generally doesn’t topple democracies.

12. Regime PerformancePolitical Performance • People care about political goods as well as economic. • Order: physical safety, peace. • Prestige of country in international affairs (sometimes). • Political freedom, accountability, lack of corruption.

13. Is Consolidation an Appropriate Concept?

14. Problems with the concept of consolidation • How can consolidated democracies become deconsolidated?

15. Problems with the concept of consolidation • How do we know when threshold of consolidation is crossed? • How many people have to believe and how strongly?

16. Problems with the concept of consolidation • Teleological aspect. • Assumption that events are naturally meant to follow this path. • Mirroring modernization theory. • Unclear where definition of consolidation comes from.

17. Problems with the concept of consolidation • Persistence of stable unconsolidated regimes. • “Delegative democracies” (O’Donnell).

18. Problems with the concept of consolidation • Definition of institutionalization (O’Donnell). • “Institution”: “regularized pattern of interaction that is known, practiced, and accepted by actors…” (O’Donnell)

19. Problems with the concept of consolidation • Definition of institutionalization (O’Donnell). • Neglect of strong informal institutions. • E.g. Patron-client relations.

20. Problems with the concept of consolidation • Solution may be to develop typologies of democracy, without assuming stages to consolidation. • E.g. (Collier & Levitsky) • “Electoral” democracy. • “Delegative” democracy. • “Limited” democracy. • “De facto one-party” democracy.