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ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013

ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013. 1. Forecasting at NCEP Environmental Modeling Center http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

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ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013

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  1. ATM 401/501Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013 1. Forecasting at NCEP • Environmental Modeling Center http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to HPC verification page • Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

  2. Motivation Nashville: May 1, 2010 Atlanta: Sept. 21, 2009 Flooding is a leading cause of weather-related deaths Cedar Rapids: June 2008 "Improvements in QPF and mesoscale rainfall prediction need to be a top NWS research and training priority." 2009 SE US Flood Service Assessment

  3. Threat and Bias Scores Threat Score (TS): The formula for computing the TS is Correct / (Forecast + Observed - Correct) For a perfect forecast, Correct = Forecast = Observed to yield a TS of 1. The worst possible forecast, with Correct = 0, yields a TS of zero. Cedar Rapids: June 2008 Bias: The basic formula for computing the bias is Forecast / Observed This quantity gauges the accuracy of areal/station coverage of a specified precipitation threshold amount, regardless of accuracy in location. An ideal forecast would have Forecast = Observed to yield a Bias of 1.

  4. Extreme Events are Challenging Forecast improvement of extreme events (4”) lags improvement of more common events (1”)

  5. Tennessee Example 12 UTC 1 May – 12 UTC 3 May Observed HPC Deterministic (Issued 12 UTC 1 May)

  6. Tennessee Example 12 UTC 1 May – 12 UTC 3 May Observed 95th percentile

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