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Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010. Global summary Northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods Attribution studies. Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010. Beijing Climate Center bcc.cma.gov.cn/en.
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Seasonal Climate – Summer 2010 • Global summary • Northern hemisphere extra-tropics: jet stream and tropopause dynamics Russian heatwave, Pakistan floods • Attribution studies Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 26 November 2010
Winter El Niño to Summer La Niña 2m Temperature, anomaly JJA 2010 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL
Tropical Convection OLR anomaly JJA 2010 Equatorial OLR anomaly 5N–5S CPC / NCEP & Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Global Circulation – JJA Winds, 200hPa Streamfunction, sigma=0.210 Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 Winds, 850hPa
Global Circulation – JJA streamfunction Streamfunction, sigma=0.210 anomaly, sigma=0.210 Streamfunction, sigma=0.850 anomaly, sigma=0.850
Temperature anomalies NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
UK mean temperature (anomaly) May April June July Aug Sept
UK precipitation (% normal) May April June July Aug Sept
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 25 June – 02 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 02 – 09 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 09 – 16 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 16 – 23 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 23 – 30 July ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 30 July – 11 August ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
July: 250hPa streamfunction (weekly) 11 – 20 August ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
Dynamical tropopause evolution 23-30 July 30 July – 11 Aug ECMWF operational analyses (Met. Dept. CWD archive)
250hPa winds, 24-30 July Climatology NOAA ESRL
250hPa winds, 24-30 July 2010 NOAA ESRL
NOAA attribution studies • Aim to attribute extreme anomalies variability (regression / historical analogues) climate warming? • Martin Hoerling: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/
Summary • Persistent waves on northern jet stream • (blocking) anticyclone) over western Russia strong upstream & downstream troughs jet entrance forcing of ascent over Pakistan?