MPD 575 Design For SATISFICING (DFS)

1. MPD 575Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Team BBCD Cohort #9 Brad Kenoyer Bill Parran Chintan Ved Dawoud AlQasrawi

2. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Overview & Definition • Objectives of System Engineering (SE) • Satisficing and Ford’s Quality Triangle • Satisficing and Existing Products • Satisficing and High Product Quality • Satisficing and Superior Purchase and Service Experience • Examples • Discussion MPD575 Weaver

3. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Satisficing: The selection of an acceptable or satisfactory solution that meet an agents minimum aspiration-level or threshold , a threshold, under which solutions are deemed unacceptable . A satisficing solution may or may not be an optimal economic solution. Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisficing#References MPD575 Weaver

4. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • The word satisfice was coined by Herbert Simon. He pointed out that human beings lack the cognitive resources to maximize: we usually do not know the relevant probabilities of outcomes, we can rarely evaluate all outcomes with sufficient precision, and our memories are weak and unreliable. A more realistic approach to rationality takes into account these limitations: This is called bounded rationality. MPD575 Weaver

5. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Do not try to produce optimal designs, because for complex systems this is impossible. • The key to successful design is “the replacement of the goal of maximization with the goal of satisficing, of finding a course of action that is 'good enough.' ... Since the [designer] ... has neither the senses nor the wits to discover an 'optimal' path – even assuming the concept of optimal to be clearly defined – we are concerned only with finding a choice mechanism that will lead it to pursue a 'satisficing' path, a path that will permit satisfaction at some specified level of all its needs.” - Herb Simon, 1957 MPD575 Weaver

6. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Objectives of System Engineering (SE) • In a nutshell, SE is all about making the best dang system possible • The SE must find the best balance of the critical system attributes • “The best is the enemy of the good” • “Systems engineering is the art of good enough” • SE is about satisficing - MPD 510 Systems Engineering - Weaver Topic 1 20060911

7. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • When delivering any product, there are essentially three main components that must be right: product content (what's designed in), product execution (how it's designed to meet customer usage), and the customer interface points. • This is best demonstrated by Ford's quality triangle.

8. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Ford’s Quality Triangle

9. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Satisficing in Search • Threshold: A threshold is imposed with regard to the satisfaction or suitability of a solution. Once a solution meets such a threshold, the search may be considered satisfied. MPD575 Weaver

10. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Satisficing in Search • Tradeoffs: More than one consideration (such as fitness or utility) is evaluated when seeking a solution. MPD575 Weaver

11. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Satisficing in Search • Comparative: from satisficing evolution, solution utility may be considered comparatively rather than absolutely. This ordinal ranking may further be reduced to the Boolean status of satisfactory and unsatisfactory solutions. MPD575 Weaver

12. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Satisficing in Search • Presence of Optimality: also from satisficing evolution, unlike optimization that assumes the presence of a global or locally optimum solution, satisficing makes no such assumptions about the existence of an optimum where one may or may not exist. MPD575 Weaver

13. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Exciting & Innovative Products • Launched in 1991, Explorer defined the modern SUV phenomenon by offering just the right amount of equipment and style • Sales peaked at just short of 500,000 units per year

14. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Exciting & Innovative Products Explorer Satisficing Points: • Vehicle not the fastest, most fuel efficient, or best off road • Offered luxury appointments similar to the best in class but not unique in its segment • Combination of size, style, content, and price offered the general package that met a large number of peoples perceived needs without adding unnecessary cost and complexity

15. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Exciting & Innovative Products SUV / CUV Evolution Satisficing Points: • Customer needs became clearer as the segment evolved • New products were added starting in 2001 (Escape and Edge shown above) • Unnecessary truck-related parts were shed (full-frame, solid rear axle) and more comfort features added but basic formula remained the same

16. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of High Product Quality (cont.) Black & Decker Black & Decker is a global manufacturer and marketer of quality power tools and accessories, hardware and home improvement products, and technology based fastening systems.

17. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of High Product Quality (cont.) Fein defines quality as high performance precise power tool that is durable and exceed the customer expectation. B&D defines it as a quality that is good enough; that can perform the job many times but it is not durable and high performance as a Fein. Both companies define QUALITY term in different aspect.

18. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of High Product Quality (cont.) Fein Electric Hacksaw. It costs $2,409.75 B&D corded Cut Saw Kit It costs $111.60

19. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of High Product Quality (cont.) From the price standpoint, it apparent that Quality is not the same in both products. Black & Decker certainly satisfy the customers (majority of the customer base) who don’t want to pay too much and at the same time get the job done.

20. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience • As the attractiveness of product or service alternatives rises, people experience conflict and, as a result, may put off making a decision, choose the default option, or simply opt out MPD575 Weaver

21. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • Research suggests that as the number of alternatives increases, people simplify their decision making processes by relying on heuristics, they tend to consider fewer alternatives, and process a smaller fraction of the available information regarding those alternatives. MPD575 Weaver

22. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • Almost a half century ago, Simon (1955, 1956, 1957) suggested an approach to explaining choice that was more cognizant of human cognitive limitations than rational choice theory. MPD575 Weaver

23. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • Simon argued that the presumed goal of maximization (or optimization) is virtually always unrealizable in real life, owing both to the complexity of the human environment and the limitations of human information processing MPD575 Weaver

24. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • He suggested that in choice situations, people actually have the goal of “Satisficing” rather than Maximizing. • So, there will be two types of people: • Maximizers (optimizers) • Satisficers MPD575 Weaver

25. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • To satisfice, people need only to be able to place goods on some scale in terms of the degree of satisfaction they will afford, and to have a threshold of acceptability • A satisficer simply encounters and evaluates goods until one is encountered that exceeds the acceptability threshold MPD575 Weaver

26. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • A satisficer thus often moves in the direction of maximization without ever having it as a deliberate goal • To satisfice is to pursue not the best option, but a good enough option. MPD575 Weaver

27. Design For SATISFICNG (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • In one series of studies (Lyengar & Lepper, 2000; see also Iyengar & Lepper, 1999), participants were more likely to purchase exotic jams or gourmet chocolates when they had 6 options from which to choose than when they had 24 or 30, respectively. MPD575 Weaver

28. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • And perhaps more importantly, those with fewer options expressed greater satisfaction with the choices they made. • The more options there are, the more likely one will make a non-optimal choice. MPD575 Weaver

29. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • Superior Purchase and Service Experience (cont.) • As an example of high satisficers customers are the Apple Computers customers, the company provide them with limited numbers of options that fulfill their needs, and because of that Apple customers are more satisfied than any other computer customers. Reference: Maximizing Versus Satisficing: Happiness Is a Matter of Choice. MPD575 Weaver

30. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Superior Purchase & Service Experience Southwest Airlines

31. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Superior Purchase & Service Experience • Company Goal • Affordable flying for customers • Be a profitable company • Achieve job security for every employee • Within its own industry group, the company scored first place in such key attributes as: innovation, employee talent, use of corporate assets, social responsibility, quality of management, financial soundness, and long-term investment value according to Fortune Magazine

32. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Superior Purchase & Service Experience • Southwest was the first airline to start the trend of no first class; no food other than peanuts, potato chips, or cookies; no assigned seats; no transfers of luggage to other airlines. • Yet, Southwest Airlines has become the nation’s fourth largest carrier in terms of customer boardings. • Southwest has 35,000 employees and it serves 59 airports in 58 cities in 30 states. It operates nearly 2,800 flights a day.

33. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Superior Purchase & Service Experience • On an average Southwest carried over 44 million passengers per year • While the average cost per passenger of serving meals in the industry is about $5, Southwest’s average cost per passenger is only 20 cents. They passed the savings the customers in terms of reduced airfare. • Southwest Airlines boasts the best on-time record, best baggage handling, and fewest customer complaints in the airline industry.

34. Design For SATISFICING (DFS)Example of Superior Purchase & Service Experience • While their competition was focusing on travel flexibility, covering each & every major city in the US – Southwest was focusing on maintaining low cost fares (their goal since day one). • Oil price hedging (might be luck) certainly helped Southwest in 2007 / 08 CY’s • Elimination of onboard food and limiting itself to only specific cities helped Southwest satisfy the customers.

35. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • The following tables are examples of Maximizing verses SATISFICING for different Features. • Tables from W.C. Wimstatt 12/29/05

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42. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • The MPD Program’s Cohort 9 was given the opportunity twice to practice the art of satisficing. 1.) The January Experience: LIGHT-BOT 2.) King Texere - Trebuchet

43. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • The January Experience project required the team to build a robot. • The basic given objectives were to sort large and small marbles and raise them. Points were given for the # sorted properly and the height raised. • Bonus points were awarded to the lightest weight for the robot

44. January Experience Cohort 9 LIGHT – BOTbyBBCBrad KenoyerBill ParranChintan Ved Product Description

45. CHASSIS • Light Weight: Styrofoam packaging mat’l • Aluminum bracket to support: Lift / Raising • Support total system design • Drive • Sorter • Lifting (Telescoping) • Raising sorter

46. DRIVE • (2) Servo drive motors • (2) Model airplane wheels w/ rubberbands • (2) Skid buttons RAISING • (1) Servo motor • (1) Aluminum Arm

47. SORTER • “Dust Pan” design • Collect small and large marbles • Sort small and large marbles LIFTING • (1) Servo Motor • (2) Cardboard Tubes • (1) Aluminum ‘L’ bracket w/ plastic cap • (1) Aluminum strip w/ string

48. Team BBC w/ LIGHT-BOT

49. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) • The LIGHT-BOT performed the objectives in the test trials: sorting and raising the marbles and achieved the bonus points for the lightest design • The LIGHT-BOT failed to perform during the competition. • Besides some controller issues - due to the ultra-light weight, the servo drives were able to drift during the competition.

50. Design For SATISFICING (DFS) Lessons Learned from January Experience: • Meeting all the individual component objectives does not necessarily meet the systems requirements. 2. Make sure the components deliver what they were designed for (no compromise once you do all the tradeoffs). • Testing system for robustness is a good idea. • Always have the controller antenna fully extended.