Bushfire CRC Grassland Curing Project

1. Bushfire CRCGrassland Curing Project Ian Grant Bureau of Meteorology NAFE Workshop, 14 February 2006

2. Grassland Curing • What: • The seasonal dying and drying of grassland • Grassland Curing Index = Percentage dead • Why: • An input to fire danger rating systems • An input to fire behaviour models • Curing input •  • Fire danger/behaviour output •  • Fire management decisions

3. >95% >85% >65% >45% >25% <25% Grassland Curing Index - How it’s done now AVHRR method compares reflectance in two spectral bands • Developed by CSIRO, • run by Bureau of Meteorology • Victoria and South Australia only

4. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing • Aim: • Develop techniques of grassland curing assessment that are robust, reliable, validated and applicable across Australia and New Zealand • Duration: • July 2004 – June 2010 • Field measurement program: • Systematic sampling of fuel moisture content at several sites across Australia and NZ, through three or four seasons

5. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing • Approaches: • Remote sensing (vegetation indices, thermal) • AVHRR, MODIS, Landsat? • Pasture growth models, driven by meteorology • Assessment, Prediction • Soil moisture • Direct measurements • Indicators: Drought Code, Keetch Byram Drought Index, Soil Dryness Index • Validate/improve water balance in growth models • Assimilation eventually?

6. Vegetation indices: MODIS vs AVHRR

7. Grassland Curing – Assimilation • Meteorological obs + Remote Sensing obs + Growth model • in an assimilation framework Assimilation scheme GEO Solar Radiation Grass growth model Fuel Curing Sfc Obs Precipitation Fuel Amount Landsat? AVHRR /MODIS Sfc Obs Temperature Vegetation Index Observation Model … Land Sfc Temperature Polar /GEO

8. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing • Status: • Trials of field sampling methods done in 2005 • Sampling in SE Australia and NZ commenced end of 2005 • Sampling in northern Australia will commence mid-2006

9. Bushfire CRC - Project A1.4 Improved methods for the assessment and prediction of grassland curing • Recruiting now • Postdoc • Remote sensing (vegetation indices) • Field sampling coordination • Canberra, CSIRO • Contact: Jim.Gould@ensisjv.com • PhD student • Remote sensing • Melbourne, Bureau of Meteorology + Uni • CRC Scholarship available • Contact: I.Grant@bom.gov.au

10. Curing and soil moisture:Questions and requirements • Can progression of visible curing and soil moisture be related? • Can soil moisture observations improve/validate growth models? • Requires measurements spread through a curing season • Which measure of soil moisture is most appropriate? • Can fuel moisture content be estimated, or optical estimates improved, with microwave observations of vegetation? • Co-locate some curing sampling sites with soil moisture sites, and University of Newcastle growth monitoring sites • General requirements for satellite targets: • Little topography (over ~11 km2) • Few or no trees (over ~11 km2) • A range of grassland types

11. Other useful measurements • Curing Project personal would sample grass curing • VNIR spectrometer measurements of surface • ground, air, multiangular? • Thermal radiometer measurements of surface • radiometric land surface temperature, multiangular? • Non-routine satellites • MISR local mode (9 angles, 4 bands, 275-m) • Tumbarumba scheduled  Goulburn hard, Murrumbidgee easy • ASTER (visible to thermal bands, 30-m) • GOES-9 TIR (hourly, 5 km)