George Luber, PhD Associate Director for Climate Change Climate and Health Program

1. The Public Health Dimensions of Disasters in the Context of Climate Change George Luber, PhD Associate Director for Climate ChangeClimate and Health Program National Center for Environmental Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CSTE National Disaster Epidemiology Workshop, 2013

2. Ten Indicators of a Warming World

3. Very likely that heat waves, will become more intense and frequent. [> 90% probability] Very likely that heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. [> 90% probability] Likely that tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy rainfall [> 66% probability] Likely increase in dry days and areas affected by drought. [> 66% probability] Likely increase in incidence of storm related extremely high sea level[> 66% probability] Some Projections of Future Changes in Climate (IPCC 2007)

4. One Local Effect of Climate Change: Temperature influences on Precipitation

6. How Risk is Changing: Hazards IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

7. Status of Present Knowledge • Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge - Kunkel, K.E. et al. (23 others). Tentatively accepted (BAMS). • Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge - Peterson, T.C. et al. (27 others). In Review (BAMS). • Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts: State of Knowledge - Vose, R.S. et al. (25 others) To be submitted (BAMS).

8. Disasters from a Public Health Perspective “…disasters are defined by what they do to people, otherwise they are simply interesting geological or meteorological phenomena.” – Eric Noji

9. Or in different terms… IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

10. Disaster-Related Health Effects • Direct – caused by the physical forces or essential elements of the disaster event • Indirect – caused secondarily by anticipation of the disaster or unsafe/unhealthy conditions which develop due to the effects of the disaster

11. Climate Change: Temperature rise Sea level rise Hydrologic extremes Potential Health Effects of Climate Change Adapted from J. Patz

12. Put another way: adapt to this mitigate against this

13. Mitigation: “avoiding the unmanageable” Adaptation: “managing the unavoidable”

14. The Strategy for Disaster Preparedness Message: Even though the hazards are inevitable, the effects of disasters can be reduced. Goal: To develop a society that is resilient to natural hazards.

15. Climate and Health Program Formally constituted as a Program in March 2009 Leads efforts to: • identify the health impacts of climate change and the populations most vulnerable to these impacts; • anticipate future trends; • assures that systems are in place to detect and respond to emerging health threats; • and takes steps to assure that these health risks can be managed now and in the future.

16. The Climate and Health Program fills three critical roles: (1) to analyze and translatethe latest evidence in climate science to our public health partners; (2) to apply these findings to evidence-based decision support tools • aid in the state and local public health response (3) to provide leadership • inside and outside CDC • ensure that public health concerns are represented in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies • create linkages between public health and other sectors

17. CDC’s Priority Actions for Climate Change:Translate Climate Science to our Public Health Partners Identify regional climate trends that impact health Identify the health impacts of climate change and the populations most vulnerable to these impacts Model future health impacts

18. Priority Actions for Climate Change:Develop Support Tools for State and Local Public Health Technical guidance and support for adaptation planning Create vulnerability maps Enhance surveillance tools A

19. Priority Actions for Climate Change: Leadership and Collaboration Establish and communicate the key importance of public health in the climate change response Create linkages between public health and efforts in other sectors

20. Program Highlight: Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative Objective: To enhance the capability of state and local health agencies to deal with the challenges associated with climate change Cooperative Agreements with State and Local HDs: “Developing Public Health Capacity and Adaptations to Reduce Human Health Effects of Climate Change” Developing Decision Support Tools: Communications and Educational Tools Vulnerability Mapping Tools

22. The BRACE Framework Building Resilience AgainstClimate Effects Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects National Center for Environmental Health

23. Contact: George Luber, PhD Associate Director for Global Climate Change National Center for Environmental Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gluber@cdc.gov Tel: 770-488-3429