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Trends in Agricultural Chemical Concentrations for Three Sites with Corn Production

Trends in Agricultural Chemical Concentrations for Three Sites with Corn Production. Ashlynn Stillwell CE397: Statistics for Water Resources April 30, 2009. Outline. Background Hypotheses Data & Results Current Conclusions Future Work Questions. Background.

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Trends in Agricultural Chemical Concentrations for Three Sites with Corn Production

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  1. Trends in Agricultural Chemical Concentrations for Three Sites with Corn Production Ashlynn Stillwell CE397: Statistics for Water Resources April 30, 2009

  2. Outline • Background • Hypotheses • Data & Results • Current Conclusions • Future Work • Questions

  3. Background • Policy mandates increase in biofuels • Major feedstock for ethanol is corn • Chemicals used to grow corn can pollute water

  4. Hypotheses • Corn production has increased over time. • Agricultural chemicals in water have increased over time. • There is a positive relationshipbetween corn production and chemical concentrations.

  5. Sites 2 1 3

  6. Corn Production

  7. Agricultural Chemicals • Total nitrogen vs. time not statistically different from mean (R2 = 0.028) • Similar for phosphorus and atrazine (R2 ≤ 0.3) • Only one R2 > 0.047

  8. Corn-Chemical Relationship

  9. Corn-Chemical Regression Nitrogen = 5.64 - 1.6E-05*Corn (2.85) (-1.17) R2 = 0.15 Se = 1.71 F = 1.37 Phosphorus = 0.61 - 2.4E-06*Corn (5.66) (-3.21) R2 = 0.56 Se = 0.09 F = 10.3 Atrazine = 7.95 - 4E-05*Corn (2.22) (-1.80) R2 = 0.45 Se = 2.02 F = 3.24

  10. Current Conclusions • Corn production has increased at each of the three sites. • No statistically significant increase in chemical concentrations at three sites. • Small negative relationship between corn and chemicals, though not always significant.

  11. Future Work • Perform statistical tests on difference between means • Consider transforming data for better regression fit • Use SPARROW to estimate nitrogen at sites • Write report

  12. Questions

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