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GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG

GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG. T. Satomura (Kyoto Univ.). Activity in 2003 #1. The 2nd workshop on regional climate modeling for monsoon system March 4-6, Yokohama, Japan Organized with FRSGC 68 participants in total 13 invited, 20 from abroad 30 oral presentations & 5 posters.

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GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG

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  1. GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG T. Satomura (Kyoto Univ.)

  2. Activity in 2003 #1 • The 2nd workshop on regional climate modeling for monsoon system • March 4-6, Yokohama, Japan • Organized with FRSGC • 68 participants in total • 13 invited, 20 from abroad • 30 oral presentations & 5 posters

  3. Recommendation of 2nd RCM WS • Publish the proceedings of WS • Prepare a special issue of JMSJ • Plan a inter-comparison experiment of model sensitivity to contribute regional climate forecasts of IPCC • Arrange a consortium to promote the usage of the ES

  4. Activity in 2003 #2 • Proceedings was published in Aug. 2003 as the GAME Publication No.39 • Preparing a special issue of J. Metor. Soc. Japan • 15 papers were submitted and in the peer review process • the issue will be published in next April

  5. Acitivity Plan in 2004 • Detail is not yet decided but… • 3rd RCM WS will be held • Feb. 17-20, 2004 at Hawaii Univ. • the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), the FRSGC, and the GISP are co-sponsoring • All presentations will be jointly presented at the International Asian Monsoon Symposium (IAMS) • Dead line of submission is 15 November

  6. Special Topics of one day discussion in 3rd WS • modeling sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, and cloud-radiation feedback • water cycle and hydrological modeling for monsoon system • to facilitate the long-term collaboration and to initiate and coordinate the research initiatives in the community • to identify problems and discrepancies in RCMs and modeling approach, and to discuss future directions

  7. 2nd RCM WS Photo

  8. Diurnal variation of precipitation

  9. GCM cannot simulate them

  10. (%) (%) (%) 20 20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 (LT) (LT) (LT) Radar observation MAY to JUL 1999 11 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 Windward side (western area) Mountainous region Lee side (eastern area) reg01 reg05 reg08 reg02 reg06 reg09 reg03 reg07 reg10 reg04 reg11

  11. (%) (%) (%) 20 20 20 reg08 reg01 reg09 reg02 reg10 reg03 reg11 reg04 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 (LT) (LT) (LT) In October 1999 11 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 Mountainous region Windward side (eastern area) Lee side (western area) reg05 reg06 reg07

  12. Numerical Model

  13. -T Rainfall trends in Thailand (1951-1994) Observed trends Simulated change  with deforestation condition by RAMS Both Obs. and Simulated change show remarkble decrease of rainfall in September. Kanae et al.(2001), J. of Hydromet.

  14. 2 ensembles with IPRC_RegCM • Integration Period: • Each ensemble has 5 members April 20 – September 30, 1998 • ECMWF for boundary & initials “CURRENT” “FOREST” Experiment

  15. Comparison Changes in modeled Rainfall Changes in observed Rainfall

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